X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Bracket Busters: Top 10 Cinderella Teams Poised for Upsets in March Madness 2025

Ryan's top ten candidates that could shock the world during March Madness 2025. Which potential lower-seeded teams are most likely to make an NCAA tournament run?

The NCAA tournament doesn't tip off until 6:40pm on Tuesday, March 18th, which is still 11 days, 7 hours, and 40 minutes away, but who's counting? The month of March isn't just about the Big Dance, though. Conference tournaments are almost half the fun! Ok, maybe not half, but at least 20%. For a lot of people, it's the first time they are tuning into the sport, which also means the first time seeing potential bracket busters in action.

The field of 68 also doesn't drop until next Sunday, but it's never too early to do some deep dives into potential Cinderellas for the upcoming tournament. Gus Johnson's iconic "the slipper still fits" call (0:44) back in the '99 Sweet 16 still hits like a Frank the Tank beer bong, and it will until the end of time. Those are the kind of moments that make this tournament so magical. Sure, you may get some better talent matchups if the top teams advance like in 2008 when we saw a Final Four that featured Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Tyler Hansbrough, and Ty Lawson.

The mid-major sleepers or middling power-five teams that catch fire at the right time are what truly captivate the nation and keep people coming back for more. Here are ten teams who have the chops to be the next March Madness Cinderella. For detailed March Madness strategy, check out our "How to Win March Madness Brackets Complete Guide." This guide comes with general information, strategy tips, and historical data.

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 30% off using code WIN! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Drake Bulldogs

Bracketology: Projected 12-seed

What's the Rothstein-ism? Palpable buzz? We're not talking about Williams here, but that is precisely what is building in Des Moines at the moment. Drake has not skipped a beat since their head coach, Darian Devries, left for West Virginia this past offseason, taking his 2x MVC Player of the Year son with him.

The decision to hire current head coach Ben McCollum has been a slam dunk, to say the least. Drake is one win shy of tying their all time season-high set last year with 28. Spoiler alert: They are going to break it. While losing probably the best player in program history would usually be followed by a downswing, McCollum has reloaded this program and then some.

He brought over guard Bennet Stirtz from his previous post at Division II Northwest Missouri State, and the 6-4 guard just won MVC Player of the Year after putting up 18.9 points, 5.9 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. Stirtz jumped an entire division of basketball and increased his numbers in nearly every statistical category.

Not enough people are talking about his story. It's one of the best in college basketball this season, and Stirtz is the best mid-major guard in the country.

While Stirtz is elite and well worth the watch, the rest of this team is not sexy by any means. The Bulldogs play at the slowest pace in America -- literally #364 out of 364 in tempo. That is offset by playing fundamentally sound basketball that rarely puts them in bad spots, which will definitely help them come tournament time. Think of a mid-major version of Tony Bennett's Virginia teams.

Bracketology currently has Drake facing Maryland in the first round, which would be tragic, because the Terrapins might be my favorite team heading into the tournament. I'd much rather them match up against Michigan, Marquette, or UCLA.

 

VCU Rams

Bracketology: Projected 10-seed

The Rams from Richmond have really been one of the most underratedly consistent programs in college basketball over the past decade-plus. Ever since Shaka Smart took them to their first Final Four as an 11-seed back in 2011, VCU has averaged 24 wins per season, which ranks top-15 nationwide.

The program has been used as a stepping stone for coaches the past twenty years or so, and current head coach Ryan Odom could be following that trend in the coming months. Virginia will likely come knocking this offseason.

Enough about the past and future, though. This current VCU team is damn good and employs a style not unlike the "Havoc" swarming defense popularized by Shaka. 3rd in field goal percentage defense, 25th in defensive turnover rate, coupled with a 36.5% offensive rebounding mark, 14 in the country. Translation: They like to get under your skin and wear you down physically.

The downside of this is they do turn the ball over quite a bit, but generate enough extra possessions to make up for that. What's also interesting is that as much they like create chaos, the Rams don't like to run all that much. They check in at #231 in adjusted tempo, and their opponents are even slower (#348) because it takes them forever to find a good look.

This team isn't very deep, but they have a perimeter quartet that combines for over 50 points per game and shoots about 37% from three, with an absolute star leading the way in Max Shulga. The odds aren't in their favor as a projected 10-seed, but a magical run a la 2011 is not completely out of the question.

 

UC San Diego Tritons

Most of the people reading this probably have not heard the name Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, but it's time to put a spotlight on this kid. The senior guard from New Zealand is a top-five mid-major player in the country, averaging 20 points, five rebounds, and three-and-a-half assists while shooting a ridiculous 58% from the field.

Teeing it up from long-range is a rarity - only 15 made on the season - but it doesn't matter in the slightest. ATJ is an elite rim attackman and finisher, leading the entire country in free throw attempts with 262 (8.5 per game).

You can't talk about this team without mentioning the hometown kid Hayden Gray, who leads the nation in steals at a ridiculous 3.3 per game. His anticipation on the defensive end is second-to-none and gives UC San Diego a defensive ace on the perimeter, which can go a long way in March.

The Tritons are 2-1 in Quad 1 games, their best win coming on the road against a great Utah State squad. They have risen up to #38 in KenPom, a full 91 spots above their preseason ranking. UC San Diego basketball has only been in Division 1 since 2020, and their average KenPom finish since then has been 225th. Their ascension this year is almost unprecedented in college basketball.

UCSD rarely turns the ball over -- 13.3% TO rate, sixth in the country, but is swarming on defense -- 23.8% TO rate for opponents, 2nd nationwide. They also take, and usually make, quite a bit of shots from downtown. Three-point shots make up about half of their total attempts (9th in the country), and they convert these at a 36.6% clip. Low turnovers, great defense, and an efficient- shooting team? The recipe almost sounds too perfect.

The Tritons should win the Big Sky with relative ease, but conference tournaments are always a far cry from absolutes, no matter who you are. If they get upset and miss the field, the committee will likely rob us of joy and make UC San Diego the next Indiana State and give the last bid to a completely undeserving North Carolina to boost TV ratings. Here's to hoping that doesn't happen.

 

Memphis Tigers

Bracketology: Projected 7-seed

The reason for including Memphis in this column rests on one philosophy, and one philosophy only. Guards win in March. And Memphis has three that can fill it up. The star of the trio is PJ Haggerty, who, like Tait-Jones above him, excels in the mid-range and getting to the line.

He's seventh in the country in attempted free throws, but also shoots 41% from long-range and converts over half of his two-point shots that help him score 21.3 a night. Add in 5.4 rebounds and almost four assists, and you have what we call a 1 of 1. That is, no one else in the country is putting up these numbers.

Haggerty's backcourt mates - Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rodgers - combine to shoot 39% from downtown, which has helped Memphis become a top-10 three point shooting team in the land. They also have a guy who has a spot locked down on the NCAA all-name team in Dain Dainja. The Illinois transfer also happens to be one of the best low-post scorers in the sport when he's able to stay on the court.

Memphis doesn't play more than six guys consistently, but their starting five can keep up with just about anyone.

 

New Mexico Lobos

Bracketology: Projected 9-seed

The younger Pitino's talented squad was hands-down the most picked "upset" in the Round of 64 last season, but that flamed out quickly as the Lobos took a 21-point loss to six-seed Clemson. The Tigers seemed to be offended by their underdog status (+2.5) despite being the higher seeded team.

New Mexico is back with a vengeance in 2025, putting together another great regular season led by extraordinary guard Donovan Dent. The junior guard is pouring in over 20 points and six assists per night while shooting 50% from the field.

Pitino lost his other two excellent guards from last year Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House, but Nelly Junior Joseph returned to handle duties down low, and he's one of the best in the business at doing so. The center from Nigeria is tied for 3rd in the nation at 11 rebounds per game to go along with 13.4 points. He and Dent form a complete duo that is incredibly hard to stop.

This team struggles mightily converting from the charity stripe with a 69% conversion rate but plays at a breakneck pace that helps create extra possessions. They aren't particularly great at one aspect of the game but are a sound, mostly veteran team that has tournament experience. The Lobos definitely had a better all-around team last season, but maybe the pressure of being the heavy "upset" pick got to them. They won't carry that same weight in 2025.

 

Utah State Aggies

Bracketology: Projected 9-seed

The premier feeder program in the country, Utah State is back at it again with yet another tournament team. If the Aggies make the Big Dance this year, that would make it five out of the last six tournaments, with four different coaches. I know I've used the word "unprecedented" already in this column, but it's because both are truly just that.

No program can claim that level of success in such a tight timespan under different regimes. Efficient shot-making and sharing the basketball have been Aggie's main reasons for sustained success, and this version deploys that strategy at a high level. 19th in effective field goal percentage, with an assist rate that ranks 14th nationwide.

New head coach Jerrod Calhoun was able to convince lead guard Ian Martinez to stay in Logan, which has helped the Aggies offense stay humming. The senior from Costa Rica pours in 17 points per game on 38% from three and 88% from the foul line. Martinez helped Utah State manhandle a good TCU team last year in the Round of 64, scoring 21 points on only nine shots.

Like New Mexico, Utah State was probably a better overall team last season, but one thing is certain in 2025. They won't have to face two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey in the second round.

 

Yale Bulldogs

Bracketology: Projected 12-seed

The Bulldogs shocked the nation last season with a crazy upset of #4 seed Auburn, who was ranked top-10 nationally in adjusted offense and defense per KenPom. What's crazy is that they might be even better this season.

Yale started off 9-6 in the non-con, but a 12-1 conference record has them in a great position to make the NCAA tournament for a third time in six seasons. They will still have to win the Ivy league conference tournament for a bid, but they should take care of business and get back to the Big Dance.

Head coach James Jones lost his best player in Danny Wolf to Michigan last year, but smooth lefty guard John Poulakidas has picked up the scoring, bumping his average to a career-high 18.9 per night and shooting 40% from three. He was the sole reason the Bulldogs were able to upset Auburn last season, dropping 28 points on 6-9 from deep.

The Naperville, IL native will be one of the best shooters in the field, and is just the type of player that can capture the hearts of America with more great performances.

Joining him to lead the team is forward Nick Townsend and point guard Bez Mbeng, who round out the highest scoring trio in the Ivy League. Whoever Yale draws in the first round must be dialed in on these three, or another big Round of 64 upset could be on its way.

 

Illinois Fighting Illini

Bracketology: Projected 7-seed

This one feels a bit odd to include since Illinois is not a mid-major and was also once a top-15 squad. In all honesty, they are also probably closer to a three-seed based on talent alone, but talent level is subjective and not factored into NCAA tournament seeding. The Illini have dealt with some injuries and inconsistent play that has partly derailed their season, but they remain safely in the field of 68.

Brad Underwood's team is still ranked 19th overall in KenPom despite their projected seven seed from Joe Lunardi. They sport an elite offense lead by projected top-10 pick Kasparas Jakučionis. The Lithuania native is one of the craftiest players in the country and always seems to be one play ahead of the defense.

He's not quite the household name a Cooper Flagg or Johni Broome is, but he's more than capable of etching his name into March lore this season. Illinois is not a good 3-point shooting team which is usually one of the main data points you look for when trying to identify Cinderellas, but they are still 14th in adjusted offense.

This is a team that can get it done on both ends of the floor and possesses two lottery-level talents on the perimeter with Jakučionis and Will Riley. They were a popular Final Four pick around the mid-season mark, but have dropped off considerably since then. Don't be shocked if they are still able to live up to that hype.

 

Ole Miss Rebels

Bracketology: Projected 8-seed

Another non-mid-major, Ole Miss has the talent and coaching to make a deep run in this tournament. They are one ten teams to rank in the top-28 of both adjusted offense and defense, all while facing the gauntlet that is the SEC on top of a tough-non conference slate. The Rebels take extreme care of the basketball, holding the second-lowest turnover rate in the country.

Their four-guard lineup with one floor-stretching big man allows them the freedom to operate in a multitude of ways on offense, while being major disruptors on defense (34th in defensive turnover rate).

Chris Beard may not be the best human being, but he's certainly a phenomenal basketball coach, and one that has been to a national championship before. He is a proven winner, and this season he has another balanced, and in my opinion, slightly underrated team that is incredibly fun to watch.

The upcoming SEC tournament is the most highly anticipated conference tournament in quite some time. Ole Miss has the potential to cut down the nets in Nashville, and ride that momentum straight into the Big Dance.

 

Ohio State Buckeyes

Bracketology: Projected 11-seed (Last Four In)

There's something about this Buckeyes team that gives me some minor UCLA 2021 vibes. I can't quite put my finger on it, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that if Ohio State makes the First Four, they are going to advance to the Sweet 16.

Five teams since the tournament expanded to 68 back in 2011 have done it, with two reaching the national semifinal. That seems like a bit of a stretch for this squad, but doesn't it always for anyone on this seed-line, until it doesn't?

Head coach Jake Diebler (brother of John Diebler, OSU's all time 3pt makes leader), has one of the most underappreciated and underdiscussed point guards in the country. Bruce Thornton is a phenomenal player, one that should be a lock for Big Ten first-team and would challenge for Big Ten Player of the Year if the nation's best point guard didn't also reside in the same conference (bravo, Braden Smith).

The Buckeyes are anything but consistent and have gotten their doors blown off a few times this season, but their offensive metrics look fair for a potential bracket buster. Top 30 in three-point percentage and overall offensive efficiency. They don't turn the ball over all that often and are solid from the free throw line.

Nothing really wows you about this team necessarily, but they have shown flashes of being great (20-point win over No. 4 Kentucky back in December). Call it more of a gut feeling, but Thornton can take this squad to a couple of surprise upsets if they can sneak in.

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tucker Kraft

Suffers "Little Knee Tweak," Checks Out OK
Jaylen Waddle

Expected to Play and be a "Big Factor" on Thursday Night
Tucker Kraft

Suffers Knee Injury During Thursday's Practice
Clayton Kershaw

Will Retire at the End of the Season
Malcolm Brogdon

Landry Shamet and Malcolm Brogdon Both Staying with the Knicks?
Detroit Pistons

Charles Bediako Agrees to a Training Camp Deal with Detroit
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery, Uncertain for Training Camp
Charlotte Hornets

DaQuan Jeffries Waived by the Hornets
CFB

Eric Singleton Jr. Questionable For Saturday
Braden Schneider

Limited in Training Camp
Lars Eller

Recovering From Abdominal Procedure
Nick Jensen

in Danger of Missing Start of Season
Brandon Montour

to Miss Two Weeks After Ankle Surgery
Gabriel Landeskog

a "Full Go" for the Season
Samuel Girard

Avalanche Hope to Have Samuel Girard Available for Start of Season
Mackenzie Blackwood

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Tuch

Day-to-Day With Undisclosed Injury
Jordan Greenway

to Sit Out Training Camp
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Considered Day-to-Day
Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
Brooklyn Nets

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP