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Ryan's top ten candidates that could shock the world during March Madness 2025. Which potential lower-seeded teams are most likely to make an NCAA tournament run?
The NCAA tournament doesn't tip off until 6:40pm on Tuesday, March 18th, which is still 11 days, 7 hours, and 40 minutes away, but who's counting? The month of March isn't just about the Big Dance, though. Conference tournaments are almost half the fun! Ok, maybe not half, but at least 20%. For a lot of people, it's the first time they are tuning into the sport, which also means the first time seeing potential bracket busters in action.
The field of 68 also doesn't drop until next Sunday, but it's never too early to do some deep dives into potential Cinderellas for the upcoming tournament. Gus Johnson's iconic "the slipper still fits" call (0:44) back in the '99 Sweet 16 still hits like a Frank the Tank beer bong, and it will until the end of time. Those are the kind of moments that make this tournament so magical. Sure, you may get some better talent matchups if the top teams advance like in 2008 when we saw a Final Four that featured Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Mario Chalmers, Tyler Hansbrough, and Ty Lawson.
The mid-major sleepers or middling power-five teams that catch fire at the right time are what truly captivate the nation and keep people coming back for more. Here are ten teams who have the chops to be the next March Madness Cinderella. For detailed March Madness strategy, check out our "How to Win March Madness Brackets Complete Guide." This guide comes with general information, strategy tips, and historical data.
Drake Bulldogs
Bracketology: Projected 12-seed
What's the Rothstein-ism? Palpable buzz? We're not talking about Williams here, but that is precisely what is building in Des Moines at the moment. Drake has not skipped a beat since their head coach, Darian Devries, left for West Virginia this past offseason, taking his 2x MVC Player of the Year son with him.
The decision to hire current head coach Ben McCollum has been a slam dunk, to say the least. Drake is one win shy of tying their all time season-high set last year with 28. Spoiler alert: They are going to break it. While losing probably the best player in program history would usually be followed by a downswing, McCollum has reloaded this program and then some.
He brought over guard Bennet Stirtz from his previous post at Division II Northwest Missouri State, and the 6-4 guard just won MVC Player of the Year after putting up 18.9 points, 5.9 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. Stirtz jumped an entire division of basketball and increased his numbers in nearly every statistical category.
Not enough people are talking about his story. It's one of the best in college basketball this season, and Stirtz is the best mid-major guard in the country.
While Stirtz is elite and well worth the watch, the rest of this team is not sexy by any means. The Bulldogs play at the slowest pace in America -- literally #364 out of 364 in tempo. That is offset by playing fundamentally sound basketball that rarely puts them in bad spots, which will definitely help them come tournament time. Think of a mid-major version of Tony Bennett's Virginia teams.
Bracketology currently has Drake facing Maryland in the first round, which would be tragic, because the Terrapins might be my favorite team heading into the tournament. I'd much rather them match up against Michigan, Marquette, or UCLA.
I think he should be an All-American.
18.9 ppg/5.9 apg/4.4 rpg/50-38-80 splits.
Drake is 27-3 on the path to getting an at-large bid.All American Bennett Stirtz🐶 https://t.co/YenMvfIidS pic.twitter.com/rvbUdM75h2
— Ryan Hammer🔨 (@ryanhammer09) March 5, 2025
VCU Rams
Bracketology: Projected 10-seed
The Rams from Richmond have really been one of the most underratedly consistent programs in college basketball over the past decade-plus. Ever since Shaka Smart took them to their first Final Four as an 11-seed back in 2011, VCU has averaged 24 wins per season, which ranks top-15 nationwide.
The program has been used as a stepping stone for coaches the past twenty years or so, and current head coach Ryan Odom could be following that trend in the coming months. Virginia will likely come knocking this offseason.
Enough about the past and future, though. This current VCU team is damn good and employs a style not unlike the "Havoc" swarming defense popularized by Shaka. 3rd in field goal percentage defense, 25th in defensive turnover rate, coupled with a 36.5% offensive rebounding mark, 14 in the country. Translation: They like to get under your skin and wear you down physically.
The downside of this is they do turn the ball over quite a bit, but generate enough extra possessions to make up for that. What's also interesting is that as much they like create chaos, the Rams don't like to run all that much. They check in at #231 in adjusted tempo, and their opponents are even slower (#348) because it takes them forever to find a good look.
This team isn't very deep, but they have a perimeter quartet that combines for over 50 points per game and shoots about 37% from three, with an absolute star leading the way in Max Shulga. The odds aren't in their favor as a projected 10-seed, but a magical run a la 2011 is not completely out of the question.
VCU is a top 20 team, and the main driving force is Max Shulga, who is ranked 11th in the country in Bayesian Performance Rating at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax, best in the A-10 by a mile.
Shulga is a flamethrower from distance, in the 99th percentile for 3PT% grade. His impact on… pic.twitter.com/BCsE9ejUiJ
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 7, 2025
UC San Diego Tritons
Most of the people reading this probably have not heard the name Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, but it's time to put a spotlight on this kid. The senior guard from New Zealand is a top-five mid-major player in the country, averaging 20 points, five rebounds, and three-and-a-half assists while shooting a ridiculous 58% from the field.
Teeing it up from long-range is a rarity - only 15 made on the season - but it doesn't matter in the slightest. ATJ is an elite rim attackman and finisher, leading the entire country in free throw attempts with 262 (8.5 per game).
You can't talk about this team without mentioning the hometown kid Hayden Gray, who leads the nation in steals at a ridiculous 3.3 per game. His anticipation on the defensive end is second-to-none and gives UC San Diego a defensive ace on the perimeter, which can go a long way in March.
The Tritons are 2-1 in Quad 1 games, their best win coming on the road against a great Utah State squad. They have risen up to #38 in KenPom, a full 91 spots above their preseason ranking. UC San Diego basketball has only been in Division 1 since 2020, and their average KenPom finish since then has been 225th. Their ascension this year is almost unprecedented in college basketball.
UCSD rarely turns the ball over -- 13.3% TO rate, sixth in the country, but is swarming on defense -- 23.8% TO rate for opponents, 2nd nationwide. They also take, and usually make, quite a bit of shots from downtown. Three-point shots make up about half of their total attempts (9th in the country), and they convert these at a 36.6% clip. Low turnovers, great defense, and an efficient- shooting team? The recipe almost sounds too perfect.
The Tritons should win the Big Sky with relative ease, but conference tournaments are always a far cry from absolutes, no matter who you are. If they get upset and miss the field, the committee will likely rob us of joy and make UC San Diego the next Indiana State and give the last bid to a completely undeserving North Carolina to boost TV ratings. Here's to hoping that doesn't happen.
Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is in the KenPom top 10 for college hoops national player of the year. Some pretty good company there, and a lot of good players behind him. Bonkers. pic.twitter.com/6SatZyoxqo
— Jeff Cheshire (@jeff_cheshire) February 24, 2025
Memphis Tigers
Bracketology: Projected 7-seed
The reason for including Memphis in this column rests on one philosophy, and one philosophy only. Guards win in March. And Memphis has three that can fill it up. The star of the trio is PJ Haggerty, who, like Tait-Jones above him, excels in the mid-range and getting to the line.
He's seventh in the country in attempted free throws, but also shoots 41% from long-range and converts over half of his two-point shots that help him score 21.3 a night. Add in 5.4 rebounds and almost four assists, and you have what we call a 1 of 1. That is, no one else in the country is putting up these numbers.
Haggerty's backcourt mates - Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rodgers - combine to shoot 39% from downtown, which has helped Memphis become a top-10 three point shooting team in the land. They also have a guy who has a spot locked down on the NCAA all-name team in Dain Dainja. The Illinois transfer also happens to be one of the best low-post scorers in the sport when he's able to stay on the court.
Memphis doesn't play more than six guys consistently, but their starting five can keep up with just about anyone.
This is actually pretty wild:
PJ Haggerty at Tulsa last season (31 games): 21.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, 49% FG
Haggerty at Memphis this season (30 games, one regular season game left): 21.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.7 APG, 49% FG
Absolutely insane consistency from the likely AAC POY.
— Matt Infield (@Matt_Infield) March 7, 2025
New Mexico Lobos
Bracketology: Projected 9-seed
The younger Pitino's talented squad was hands-down the most picked "upset" in the Round of 64 last season, but that flamed out quickly as the Lobos took a 21-point loss to six-seed Clemson. The Tigers seemed to be offended by their underdog status (+2.5) despite being the higher seeded team.
New Mexico is back with a vengeance in 2025, putting together another great regular season led by extraordinary guard Donovan Dent. The junior guard is pouring in over 20 points and six assists per night while shooting 50% from the field.
Pitino lost his other two excellent guards from last year Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House, but Nelly Junior Joseph returned to handle duties down low, and he's one of the best in the business at doing so. The center from Nigeria is tied for 3rd in the nation at 11 rebounds per game to go along with 13.4 points. He and Dent form a complete duo that is incredibly hard to stop.
This team struggles mightily converting from the charity stripe with a 69% conversion rate but plays at a breakneck pace that helps create extra possessions. They aren't particularly great at one aspect of the game but are a sound, mostly veteran team that has tournament experience. The Lobos definitely had a better all-around team last season, but maybe the pressure of being the heavy "upset" pick got to them. They won't carry that same weight in 2025.
As we head into tournament play...
An updated list of the leading scorers when facing Quad 1 opponents (min. 8 GP):
1. Eric Dixon, 22.0 PPG
2. Tre Johnson, 21.9 PPG
3. Donovan Dent, 21.6 PPG
4. John Tonje, 21.5 PPG
5. Brice Williams, 21.0 PPG pic.twitter.com/R8TTXhlvzg— CBB Analytics (@CBBAnalytics) March 6, 2025
Utah State Aggies
Bracketology: Projected 9-seed
The premier feeder program in the country, Utah State is back at it again with yet another tournament team. If the Aggies make the Big Dance this year, that would make it five out of the last six tournaments, with four different coaches. I know I've used the word "unprecedented" already in this column, but it's because both are truly just that.
No program can claim that level of success in such a tight timespan under different regimes. Efficient shot-making and sharing the basketball have been Aggie's main reasons for sustained success, and this version deploys that strategy at a high level. 19th in effective field goal percentage, with an assist rate that ranks 14th nationwide.
New head coach Jerrod Calhoun was able to convince lead guard Ian Martinez to stay in Logan, which has helped the Aggies offense stay humming. The senior from Costa Rica pours in 17 points per game on 38% from three and 88% from the foul line. Martinez helped Utah State manhandle a good TCU team last year in the Round of 64, scoring 21 points on only nine shots.
Like New Mexico, Utah State was probably a better overall team last season, but one thing is certain in 2025. They won't have to face two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey in the second round.
Utah State has done the impossible the last 3 years. Despite having 3 Different head coaches and returning an average of 3 players per year they have finished Top-2 in the Mountain West each year and qualified for the NCAA Tournament both years.
Athletic Director masterclass👐 pic.twitter.com/XWaJ9ZMgbt
— NCAA Buzzer Beaters & Game Winners (@NCAABuzzerBters) February 11, 2025
Yale Bulldogs
Bracketology: Projected 12-seed
The Bulldogs shocked the nation last season with a crazy upset of #4 seed Auburn, who was ranked top-10 nationally in adjusted offense and defense per KenPom. What's crazy is that they might be even better this season.
Yale started off 9-6 in the non-con, but a 12-1 conference record has them in a great position to make the NCAA tournament for a third time in six seasons. They will still have to win the Ivy league conference tournament for a bid, but they should take care of business and get back to the Big Dance.
Head coach James Jones lost his best player in Danny Wolf to Michigan last year, but smooth lefty guard John Poulakidas has picked up the scoring, bumping his average to a career-high 18.9 per night and shooting 40% from three. He was the sole reason the Bulldogs were able to upset Auburn last season, dropping 28 points on 6-9 from deep.
The Naperville, IL native will be one of the best shooters in the field, and is just the type of player that can capture the hearts of America with more great performances.
Joining him to lead the team is forward Nick Townsend and point guard Bez Mbeng, who round out the highest scoring trio in the Ivy League. Whoever Yale draws in the first round must be dialed in on these three, or another big Round of 64 upset could be on its way.
Yale’s John Poulakidas is the most underrated shooting prospect in college hoops.
The 6’5” lefty is averaging 19.3 PTS on 44.8/41/89.6 splits. High volume 3PT shooter (14 3P/100) that can create his own shot with combos and step-backs , spot up, or fly off movement. Confident… pic.twitter.com/HPOJjiuczx
— NBA Draft Dude 🤙 (@CoreyTulaba) March 1, 2025
Illinois Fighting Illini
Bracketology: Projected 7-seed
This one feels a bit odd to include since Illinois is not a mid-major and was also once a top-15 squad. In all honesty, they are also probably closer to a three-seed based on talent alone, but talent level is subjective and not factored into NCAA tournament seeding. The Illini have dealt with some injuries and inconsistent play that has partly derailed their season, but they remain safely in the field of 68.
Brad Underwood's team is still ranked 19th overall in KenPom despite their projected seven seed from Joe Lunardi. They sport an elite offense lead by projected top-10 pick Kasparas Jakučionis. The Lithuania native is one of the craftiest players in the country and always seems to be one play ahead of the defense.
He's not quite the household name a Cooper Flagg or Johni Broome is, but he's more than capable of etching his name into March lore this season. Illinois is not a good 3-point shooting team which is usually one of the main data points you look for when trying to identify Cinderellas, but they are still 14th in adjusted offense.
This is a team that can get it done on both ends of the floor and possesses two lottery-level talents on the perimeter with Jakučionis and Will Riley. They were a popular Final Four pick around the mid-season mark, but have dropped off considerably since then. Don't be shocked if they are still able to live up to that hype.
"Illinois is 16-2 this season when they shoot above 27% from three. They don't even need to be an elite shooting team. The floor for them is 'Don't suck!' and they definitely didn't against Michigan" - @CBB_Central
WATCH:https://t.co/sVGRKI0Lgd pic.twitter.com/LXycvhPltq
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) March 3, 2025
Ole Miss Rebels
Bracketology: Projected 8-seed
Another non-mid-major, Ole Miss has the talent and coaching to make a deep run in this tournament. They are one ten teams to rank in the top-28 of both adjusted offense and defense, all while facing the gauntlet that is the SEC on top of a tough-non conference slate. The Rebels take extreme care of the basketball, holding the second-lowest turnover rate in the country.
Their four-guard lineup with one floor-stretching big man allows them the freedom to operate in a multitude of ways on offense, while being major disruptors on defense (34th in defensive turnover rate).
Chris Beard may not be the best human being, but he's certainly a phenomenal basketball coach, and one that has been to a national championship before. He is a proven winner, and this season he has another balanced, and in my opinion, slightly underrated team that is incredibly fun to watch.
The upcoming SEC tournament is the most highly anticipated conference tournament in quite some time. Ole Miss has the potential to cut down the nets in Nashville, and ride that momentum straight into the Big Dance.
DOWN GOES NO. 4! ⬇️
It's the first time we've taken down two Top 5 teams in the same season! (Alabama, Jan. 14)#HottyToddy x #Culture pic.twitter.com/jUaEsgZqUt
— Ole Miss Men’s Basketball (@OleMissMBB) March 6, 2025
Ohio State Buckeyes
Bracketology: Projected 11-seed (Last Four In)
There's something about this Buckeyes team that gives me some minor UCLA 2021 vibes. I can't quite put my finger on it, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that if Ohio State makes the First Four, they are going to advance to the Sweet 16.
Five teams since the tournament expanded to 68 back in 2011 have done it, with two reaching the national semifinal. That seems like a bit of a stretch for this squad, but doesn't it always for anyone on this seed-line, until it doesn't?
Head coach Jake Diebler (brother of John Diebler, OSU's all time 3pt makes leader), has one of the most underappreciated and underdiscussed point guards in the country. Bruce Thornton is a phenomenal player, one that should be a lock for Big Ten first-team and would challenge for Big Ten Player of the Year if the nation's best point guard didn't also reside in the same conference (bravo, Braden Smith).
The Buckeyes are anything but consistent and have gotten their doors blown off a few times this season, but their offensive metrics look fair for a potential bracket buster. Top 30 in three-point percentage and overall offensive efficiency. They don't turn the ball over all that often and are solid from the free throw line.
Nothing really wows you about this team necessarily, but they have shown flashes of being great (20-point win over No. 4 Kentucky back in December). Call it more of a gut feeling, but Thornton can take this squad to a couple of surprise upsets if they can sneak in.
BRUCE THORNTON WALKS IT OFF FOR THE BUCKEYES IN COLUMBUS 🌰
— College Basketball Report (@CBKReport) February 7, 2025
