Wednesday Night Football Matchup Analysis - Week 12

Ellis' fantasy football preview of Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens for Week 12 on Wednesday. Key QB, RB, WR, and TE start/sit advice and matchup analysis.

I initially wrote this preview for the Thanksgiving Thursday Night matchup between Baltimore and Pittsburgh, however, a lot has changed since then. With Lamar Jackson, James Conner, Willie Snead, and Mark Andrews all testing positive for COVID, I have updated and reworked a new preview for Wednesday night, nearly a week later than this game was originally scheduled to take place.

To close out Week 12, we have one of the best rivalries in the game. The depleted Baltimore Ravens are travelling to Heinz Field to take on their undefeated division rivals. Even without some of their key players, we have two of the NFL’s best coaches scheming against very familiar teams. 

Although the injury report may not show it, I am optimistic that we will have an exciting matchup between these teams this Tuesday. For only the first time this year, I bring to you RotoBallers Wednesday Night matchup analysis. 

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Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Wednesday 12/1 @ 8 PM ET

Notable Injuries

• Jimmy Smith (CB, BAL) - Questionable
• Calais Campbell (DE, BAL) - COVID - Out
• Patrick Mekari (OL, BAL) - COVID - Out
• Matt Skera (OL, BAL) - COVID - Out
• Will Holden (OL, BAL) - COVID - Out
• D.J Fluker (OL, BAL) - COVID - Out
• Mark Ingram (RB, BAL) - COVID- Out
• J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL) - COVID - Out
• Patrick Ricard (FB, BAL) - COVID - Out
• Mark Andrews (TE, BAL) - COVID - Out
• Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) - COVID - Out
• Willie Snead IV (WR, BAL) - COVID - Out
• James Conner (RB, PIT) - COVID - Out
• Jaylen Samuels (RB, PIT) - Quadricep - Doubtful
• JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT) - Foot - Expected

UPDATE: Key players like Ingram and Dobbins may be available now that the game has been pushed back. Check their availability prior to kickoff.

Must-Starts

Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT): Johnson has been on fire this season, especially as of late. Over the last two weeks, he has more yards than any other receiver. If it weren’t for injuries, Johnson would be a top-10 WR in fantasy football. Through seven full games played, he is averaging 18 fantasy points per game. The best part is that Ben Roethlisberger has locked in on him as his favorite target. Through these seven games, he is averaging 11.1 targets per game which would be only behind Davante Adams. Unfortunately, the only full game he played without at least six receptions or ten targets was the last time these teams met. The matchup may limit some of his production but if he continues to receive double-digit targets, he will have a fine fantasy day. Play him as a locked-in WR2 this week. 

Chase Claypool (WR, PIT): It’s not often that I get to talk about a fellow Canadian in this segment. The Abbotsford, British Columbia native has taken the league by storm this season. In a year loaded with phenomenal rookies, Claypool has definitely made his case to be atop that list. As the only rookie in history to have 10 touchdowns in 10 games, Claypool has turned his breakout into a fantasy feast. Mapletron is currently sitting as the WR-12 on the season and has one game in his last seven below double-digit fantasy points. Over the last four games, he is averaging 10 targets per game, which shouldn’t change this week. Continue to start him with confidence as he is another locked in WR-two with massive touchdown upside.

Benny Snell Jr. (RB, PIT): Snell will be Pittsburgh’s workhorse back this Tuesday with James Conner testing positive for COVID. Being the workhorse back on a team that is favourite to win by over ten points, automatically places Snell in this section. The matchup this week may appear scary, however, over their last three games, Baltimore has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (152.11). They have been getting torched recently by opposing running backs and we have seen Snell get it done when he receives a full workload. Snell has six games in his career with 16 or more touches. In those games, he is averaging 80.2 yards on the ground and 0.33 touchdowns. Snell should be in line for a very nice fantasy day this week, and I expect him to open the Pie Shop* as well. 

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown).

Gus Edwards (RB, BAL): Without Lamar Jackson to steal carries and both Mark Ingram, and J.K. Dobbins out of practice all week, Edwards should be fed this game. We have yet to see Edwards as the featured back this year, however, he has looked to be the best between the tackles runner of the three. Although he did have a 31-yard reception against New England two weeks ago, Edwards, unfortunately, does not have the receiving chops to make him more valuable in PPR formats. It is also important to consider that since starting the year holding Saquon Barkley to 0.4 yards per carry, the Steelers Defense has been slightly more susceptible to the run. Over the last three weeks, they are allowing the 11th least rushing yards per game (118.7). If Edwards gets 20+ attempts this game he should be a fine flex play and gets a bump in standard-scoring leagues. 

Solid Options

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT): Many people don’t realize it, but Big Ben Roethlisberger has been the QB11 this season. He has quietly been very relevant this season and should be a starting QB in most leagues. Over his last five games, he is the QB-eight and has at least two passing touchdowns in each game. This weekend his ceiling is capped by the matchup against a Baltimore team averaging the seventh-fewest passing yards per game. Despite the tough opponent, the abundance of elite weapons around him makes him a solid option this week. His fantasy floor makes him a great second QB in any two QB league. 

Robert Griffin III  (QB, BAL): RG3 is back. this time replacing the former NFL MVP under center. In my opinion, RG3 might be one of the most perfect backups in the league. Who better to replace your “rushing QB” than the second overall pick and 2012 NFL QB leading rusher? 2012 was a long time ago, and a lot has changed since that magical season. However, we all know RG3 can get it done on the ground and therefore be viable for fantasy. The only game we have seen him start for the Ravens was week 17 last season, ironically against the Steelers. In this game, he only passed for 96 yards but he managed eight rushes for 50 yards. Although the matchup is not pretty for a back-up QB, his rushing floor should make him very viable for fantasy purposes. I don’t believe many fantasy teams will be relying on the veteran QB, however, I think he could very well finish in the top 20 this week. 

Eric Ebron (TE, PIT): The red zone specialist has begun to find his groove with Ben Roethlisberger under center. Scoring three times in his last four games and having four or more targets in every game since week one, Ebron is doing what it takes to be a fantasy starter at the position. Although he is only the TE-14 on the season, not many tight ends get this kind of target-share. Ebron is a great streamer this week for any TE-needy fantasy team.  

Miles Boykin (WR, BAL): The second-year receiver started this season relatively fast and furious catching seven passes for 75 yards. Since then, Boykin has not cracked 30 yards or three receptions in a game. With both Mark Andrews and Willie Snead out this week, Boykin should step in as the “next man up”. I’m projecting the big-bodied second-year WR to be RG3’s go-to guy on passing downs over the veteran Dez Bryant. If you are forced to start a passing option on this team I believe that Boykin is the best/only startable option. Therefore, he makes the “solid option” section. Based on the fact that his only touchdown this season came against the Steelers, I’m going to be bold and call the Pie Shop* to be open for the second time this year. 

Consider Sitting

Juju Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT): JSS makes this section to give fantasy owners confidence to finally bench the big named WR. On a points per game basis, he is the WR-30 and has flat-out disappeared in some matchups. Obviously, WR-30 is still very startable, however, I wanted to give managers reassurance to play lesser names over the fourth-year WR. For example, I would have played both Allen Lazard (@ CHI) or Corey Davis over Smith-Schuster this week. It is important to recognize that he has 65 or more yards in four of his last five games, so he should be a safe volume player and can very well be started if you lack another option. 

Marquise Brown (WR, BAL): Please, bench Hollywood. Unlike Juju Smith-Schuster where he can be started, if needed, Brown should not be. Hollywood hasn’t cracked 10 fantasy points since week five this season. Plus, even though Lamar Jackson has not looked to be an accurate deep-ball passer this year, RG3 shouldn’t be any better. Although his speed could win you a week, this is exactly the thought process that has lost most Hollywood owners for the last 6 weeks. Baltimore currently has the 7th least 25+ yard passing plays in the league, and I would not bet on Hollywood changing that against the team allowing the third least passing yards per game. Remember, you can’t win your week on Thursday, however, you can definitely lose it. It’s time to move on from the second year WR.

Dez Bryant and Devin Duvernay (WR, BAL): *See Miles Boykin Preview*

Luke Willson (TE, BAL): I am thrilled to announce that this matchup is full of Canadians. Not only do I get to talk about Chase Claypool, but I also get to breakdown small-town Ontario native, Luke Willson. Willson is from LaSalle Ontario (population of 30,000) and was drafted by the Seattle Seahawks in 2013. After joining the Ravens in Week 8 this season, we have yet to see him catch a pass as a Raven. Willson has three games over 50 yards in his career, all of which came in his first two seasons in the league. Even though the Ravens love the tight end position and he is the only man still standing, you can not rely on Willson in any format.

Ellis’ Picks: Spread (6-7), Over/Under (5-8)

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh: This is the last “scary” matchup on the Steelers schedule, and that was before Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews tested positive for COVID. I am sure the Ravens would love to be the ones to ruin the undefeated streak of their division rivals, but I don’t see a reason why they will win. Solely due to the divisional matchup and John Harbaugh being one of the best coaches in the league, I still expect this to be a tight game. Because of this, a 10.5 spread seems too juicy not to take. My picks are: BAL +10.5, Under 40.5

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