Preseason Champ or Chump: First Base

While I provide generic ADP data in these articles, it is at least as important to look at the data for the site and format you are drafting on as well. Wonky default ratings often lead to absurd values, such as Masahiro Tanaka lasting way too long in the recent Rotoballer industry draft. It is […]

Preseason Champ or Chump: Catchers

Earlier this offseason, I did a series of articles detailing how to use advanced metrics to validate and predict baseball player performance for fantasy purposes. In season, advanced metrics are useful to separate random hot streaks from legitimate breakouts. In the offseason, they can spare you from wasting a high pick or a bunch of […]

Rick Lucks' 10 Bold Predictions for 2016

While I like the idea for this series, it has become a trend to blame fellow RotoBaller Kyle Bishop for making us do it. So thanks a bunch, Kyle, for making me do something I wanted to do anyway. Usually, I identify whether specific baseball players are champs or chumps. This time, we'll find out […]

Ian Kennedy: 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Value

2015 In Review Ian Kennedy? Seriously? You want me to buy the bust that somehow fleeced the Royals for $70 million and a draft pick as a sleeper? Yes, I do. Kennedy's 9-15 record and 4.28 ERA last season don't look great, but his xFIP was a much more palatable 3.70. The biggest difference is […]

Five 2015 Breakouts Poised to Regress in 2016

Every year, every fantasy owner tries to predict who will breakout and outperform their draft day cost by a significant margin. The players that manage to do so may be viewed skeptically the next year, as the fantasy world wonders if the performance is repeatable. Sometimes, younger players are given a pass on that skepticism because […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 10: Minor League Stats

Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can be disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply do not have all of the data available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline stats, […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 9: PITCHf/x

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. PITCHf/x is a publicly available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to help fantasy owners make this determination for mound breakouts and busts alike. The first data point, and the easiest to understand, is […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 8: Batted Ball Distribution for Pitchers

The league average batted ball distribution in 2015 was 20.9% liners, 45.3% grounders and 33.8% flies. Last time, we took a brief look at how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.129 BABIP in 2015) consistently have […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 7: BABIP for Pitchers

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. Some of this is unpredictable, but we can and should predict some of […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 6: FIP and xFIP

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 5: Lineups, Runs and RBI

To this point, this column has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate HRs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team dependent stats, and are unhelpful […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 4: Plate Discipline for Hitters

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 3: Batted Ball Distribution

In the first post of this series, I referenced that Chris Davis's BABIP is not explained by that post alone, and that we would consider him again in the future. He was not considered in Part 2. He will be considered here. Davis managed an above average overall BABIP of .319 in 2015, despite the […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 2: HR/FB for Hitters

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI--and maybe more. […]

Champ or Chump: Lindor, David Wright and Scherzer

By now, most 2015 fantasy leagues have already been decided. In an all season roto league, someone probably has a big enough lead in enough categories that the last week doesn't matter. H2H formats are winding down their playoffs, if they haven't already finished. You've set your last lineup in any weekly format, and any […]

Champ or Chump: Conforto, Corey Seager, and Sano

Last week, we examined three veterans that have managed to dramatically exceed their preseason expectations, a class of player that is disproportionately likely to bust the next year. This week, we look at another class of player likely to bust: The highly touted prospect that puts up strong MLB numbers in a limited sample size. […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Arrieta, Donaldson, and Greinke

While everyone follows the pennant races this time of year, many also become fascinated by who will win the end of season awards. Who will be MVP? Is so and so good enough for the Cy? This year is no exception, with particular attention paid to NL Cy Young and AL MVP. Josh Donaldson made […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Eovaldi, Thor, and Strasburg

Few things complicate a fantasy baseball owner's plans like September innings limits. You can understand why a team would want to protect its most valuable arm, but just because the real team is dead in the water doesn't mean a fantasy roster doesn't still need it. It becomes even more confusing if the team is […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Molina, Bogaerts, and Arenado

Astute readers may have noticed that this column has increasingly made references to 2016 in predicting what the future may hold for featured players. While the statistical trends referred to hold value over time, there is simply not enough season left to assert that they definitely - or even probably - will impact a player […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Heston, Fiers, and Iwakuma

The no hitter. Few events in sports can make a stadium root against the home team, but a no-no can. There is a virtual guarantee of a great defensive play to preserve the effort, adding to the excitement of the event. Like a championship, these gems live on well after their season has faded into […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Desmond, Shields, and Lester

Nothing can tank a fantasy season quite like an early round champ performing like a chump. I was personally burned by Jon Lester's horrific 2012 season, and have not been able to trust him since. James Shields in 2015 reminds me a lot of 2012, and I'm sure Ian Desmond would as well if I […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Longoria, Carrasco, and A-Rod

In any 2015 baseball broadcast or highlight package, you are bound to hear terms such as "exit velocity", "Stat-Cast", and "Route Efficiency". Print sources are getting in on the game as well, with Fangraphs introducing "Hard%", and by extension Soft% and Med%, to act as a proxy for exit velocity. Many people have caught a […]

Jon Gray (SP, COL) - Waiver Wire Analysis

BALLER MOVE: Add in desperate situations or in deeper leagues with innings limits. OWNED IN: 6% of Fleaflicker leagues ANALYSIS: Allow me to preface this by saying that a certain degree of desperation is required to roll the dice on a Colorado pitcher. That said, there are plenty of fantasy teams that might be able to […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Reyes, and Cole Hamels

The July 31st non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, resulting in a good deal of moves that make little sense. Why did the Mets spend solid prospects on a one year rental that is showing all of the signs of a lucky season? Why is Jose Reyes a Colorado Rockie? Why did the Texas […]

Yangervis Solarte (1B / 2B / 3B, SD) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues (Injury Replacement) OWNED IN: 12% of Fleaflicker leagues ANALYSIS: The biggest complaint about the Padres' offseason was that they did nothing to improve a terrible infield, with only second sacker Jedd Gyorko showing any upside of the bunch. Gyorko and the Padres have failed, but Yangervis Solarte has been […]

Champs or Chumps: Zobrist, Kazmir, Cueto

This is one of the most exciting times in the baseball season, especially if your team is in the hunt. Trades are fun to speculate about, but they can change the fantasy landscape even more dramatically than the real world in which they take place. So, who to cover in an article like this? Tulo […]

Aramis Ramirez (3B, PIT) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in the deepest of leagues for power. OWNED IN: 55% of Fleaflicker leagues. ANALYSIS: There can be no doubt that Pittsburgh fans were excited to see one of their best players of the last decade get a chance to contribute for a winning Pirates team - even if he is doing so […]

Mark Buehrle (SP, TOR) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in Deeper Leagues OWNED IN: 38% of Fleaflicker leagues ANALYSIS: Buehrle may seem mixed league relevant based on his 11-5 record and 3.23 ERA, but fantasy owners find his 4.49 K/9 to be a huge letdown. If you play in a league that uses K/9 or caps innings, you can stop reading now […]

Champ or Chump: Teixeira, Puig, and the ToddFather

The hardest thing about a column like this is not having all of the relevant data. I called Robinson Cano a Chump because his fantasy stats were bad and the underlying metrics weren't any better, but now it has come out that he had a bizarre stomach thing. There is no stat for bizarre stomach […]

Champ or Chump: Justin Turner, Jose Abreu, and The Dark Knight

This week, most columns like this one are focusing on those that made the All-Star team - after all, fantasy leagues are going through a quiet week because of it. I'm going to zig when the others zag because my team lost and instead cover players that were not involved in the game. Two were All-Stars […]