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Andy Smith's 9 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including predictions for Junior Caminero, Corey Seager, Kyle Stowers, more.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another edition of our team's bold predictions series. While I spend most of my offseason doing deep analytics dives to find the next breakouts and potential busts, this piece is where I get to take things slightly off the rails.
While my nine bold predictions will be "bold," as the name suggests, they will be grounded in reality and have a decent chance of coming to fruition, given a player's underlying metrics and previous career performances. Any ADP referenced in this piece will be taken from NFBC drafts as of February 15.
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Carter Jensen is a Top-5 Catcher
A player I have written immensely about this offseason has been the Kansas City Royals' prospect catcher, Carter Jensen. However, the young catcher deserves all the hype, as he looked more than comfortable during his first stint in the majors and is poised for a breakout season in 2026.
During his first 20 games in Kansas City, Jensen posted an incredible .300/.391/.500 line with a .991 OPS. He went deep three times and added six doubles. Under the hood, he generated a remarkable .447 xwOBA with a .336 xBA and a .633 xSLG, all of which suggest his projection is more than sustainable.
Earlier in the summer, Jensen held a .290/.377/.501 line with 20 home runs, 10 stolen bases over 111 games shared between Double-A and Triple-A. While he did not show any speed upside in his first stint, he has the skill set to easily chip in double-digit stolen bases to go along with his 20+ HR profile.
However, what makes him hold top-5 catcher upside is due to his projected at-bats. Jensen is slated to share time behind the plate and at the DH spot alongside Salvador Perez. If he picks up where he left off, Jensen is not coming out of the lineup and could play daily.
With a near-everyday role (which most catchers do not have) and legit five-category upside, Jensen will win leagues at his 178 ADP on NFBC. He has the profile to provide more fantasy value than many of the consensus top-5 catchers.
Carter Jensen hit this baseball 482 feet 😳 pic.twitter.com/CE151rFkIk
— MLB (@MLB) September 28, 2025
Devin Williams Leads Major Leagues in Saves
Devin Williams was a massive disappointment in 2025. After joining the Yankees in the offseason, the former Brewers All-Star entered the campaign with immense hype as he joined a World Series contender. However, Williams would end the season with only 18 saves and a rough 4.79 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 62 innings of work.
This was a far cry from the 1.53 ERA and 0.93 WHIP (with 36 saves) he posted in his last full season in 2023. Despite the disappointing showing, managers should be looking to buy Williams at a lower price this offseason.
Over his last 18 innings of work in 2025, Williams posted a strong 2.50 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. During this stretch, Williams found his four-seamer at this pitch posted an elite .135 xwOBA and a .233 xwOBA over the final two months, compared to the >.300 xwOBA it held for most of the first half.
If the right-hander can carry the momentum from his strong finish into 2026, he can push for a 40+-save season on a competing Mets team that figures to be in many close games.
Luisangel Acuna Hits Double-Digit HRs, Swipes 50+ Bases
After discussing a newly acquired Met, let's spotlight a former Met. Luisangel Acuna was shipped to the South Side as part of the deal that moved Luis Robert Jr. to Queens. Acuna has appeared in 109 games (during 2024 and 2025) and held a .248 AVG with three home runs and 16 stolen bases. However, during these seasons, he rarely saw consistent playing time, which limited his development.
In the minor leagues, Acuna flashed immense upside speed with solid power. Now in Chicago, Acuna projects to be the everyday center fielder, which will provide him with a career-high in at-bats to fully reach his potential.
In 2024, Acuna hit seven and swiped an eye-catching 40 bases over 132 games, and in 2023, Acuna hit nine home runs with 57 stolen bases.
The 23-year-old possesses 50+ SB potential with double-digit HR upside over a full 162-game sample. Managers needing late-round speed should prioritize him at his 417 NFBC ADP. While the White Sox have several budding stars in Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery, do not be surprised if Acuna provides the highest fantasy value out of all of them as he pushes for a 10/50+ season.
Junior Caminero is "the" Early-Round Bust, Finishes Outside of Top-8 at 3B
Let's halt the hype train and talk about a landmine. While Caminero won leagues last summer when he launched 45 HRs with a .264/.311/.525 line, the former top prospect could be a major bust in 2026.
According to NFBC, Caminero holds a 16.0 ADP, which makes him a borderline first-round pick. However, with the Rays now moving back to Tropicana Field, which is not the most hitter-friendly setting, his momentum could be halted.
Last season, Caminero posted an elite .313/.358/.595 at their temporary home at George M. Steinbrenner Field. On the road, he posted a much lower .218/.266/.477 line. While he launched 22 HRs at home and a slightly higher 23 on the road, his batting average could take a major dip in his new environment.
He should be a safe bet for 30 HRs, but a drop in batting average from .264 to the low .220s would make him a major disappointment at his price and could even push him towards the back-end of the top-10 at the 3B position.
Corey Seager Finishes Top-3 in AL MVP Voting and is a Top-3 SS
When on the field, Corey Seager is an MVP-caliber hitter. Back in 2023, Seager was the runner-up in the AL to Shohei Ohtani when he posted a .327/.390/.623 line with 42 doubles and 33 home runs. In 2024, Seager hit 30 HRs for the third straight season but saw his average dip to .278, which was still well above average.
However, in 2025, Seager appeared in only 102 games but remained just as productive, hitting 21 home runs with a .271 AVG. Over a 162-game pace, Seager would have hit 33 long balls and would have likely finished as a high-end shortstop once again. Under the hood, the 31-year-old placed in the 98th percentile in xwOBA, 94th in xBA, and 98th percentile in xSLG, suggesting his bat is still elite and among the game's top hitters.
While injury concerns will always plague his profile, Seager is one of the game's top hitters when on the field. Despite being in a loaded AL with Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Kurtz, Cal Raleigh, Jose Ramirez, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Seager will not only turn in a healthy campaign but will be a legit MVP candidate during the entire season and will finish the season as an overall top-5 SS at a deep position, in both category and points leagues.
Drafters are still wary of his injury profile, as he is being drafted as the No. 11 in NFBC drafts. The discount provides savvy managers the opportunity to acquire an MVP candidate at one of the lowest costs in his career. Back in 2023, he only needed to play in 119 games to earn the second-most MVP votes. A similar outcome is possible in 2026.
Kyle Stowers Leads National League in Home Runs
Kyle Stowers was a breakout player in 2025. After appearing in 69 MLB games in 2024 and posting a modest .208/.268/.333 line, the former Orioles prospect took a major step forward. In a full-time role in Miami, Stowers posted a .288/.368/.544 line with 25 HRs over a 117-game stint.
His incredible production appears to be quite sustainable as he generated a .375 xwOBA (94th percentile) and, more importantly, a 19.0% barrel rate, which placed him in the 98th percentile among qualified hitters. His 52.0% hard-hit rate also placed him in the 94th percentile among qualified hitters.
However, what could push him into the 40-HR club is his pull AIR%. In 2025, Stowers dramatically raised this mark to 23.7%, a massive jump from the 10.1% he posted back in 2024.
With his elite raw power and improving pull AIR%, Stowers can give Kyle Schwarber and Ohtani a strong challenge for the NL HR crown. The young slugger has left 40+ HR upside and could still be had at a surprising discount at his 125 ADP.
Kyle Stowers with his 22nd home run of the season, puts the Marlins within one (@YordiMLB called it).
Exit velo: 103.2 mph
Distance: 400 feet#Marlins trail, 2-1 pic.twitter.com/mPOVsqSObI— Kevin Barral (@kevin_barral) July 21, 2025
Yordan Alvarez is the "League-Winner" in Round 3
Yordan Alvarez was a league loser last year. As a borderline first-round pick, Alvarez would appear in just 48 games due to a hand fracture and an ankle sprain. In these games, Alvarez was not his typical self, posting a .273/.367/.430 line with a .797 OPS.
However, over the last three seasons (averaged 132 games per season), Alvarez would carry a .303/.401/.587 line with 34.3 HRs, 86.7 runs, and 93.3 RBI per season. While he carries a high injury risk, he can be had in the third round of drafts this season, making him one of the best values on the board.
Similar to how Raleigh, Caminero, and Byron Buxton smashed their ADPs and finished as top-15 players, Alvarez will provide the same value at his price tag. Despite being a "utility-only" player, Alvarez has a first-round caliber bat going just outside the top-30 picks.
With a full offseason, Alvarez will hit over .300 and surpass his previous career-high of 37 HRs and win leagues in 2026. Additionally, given his injury concerns, the Astros may look to keep him at DH (and not in left field) for most of the season, which will further protect him.
Chase Burns Finishes Top-5 in Strikeouts
Chase Burns did not have the most stable results in his first stint in the majors, but he did flash incredible strikeout potential. Over his first 43 1/3 innings, Burns struck out an eye-catching 67 hitters at a 35.6% rate, which would have placed him among the elite pitchers in the game if he logged enough innings to qualify.
Over his 13 MLB appearances, Burns racked up four double-digit punchouts four times and totaled at least seven punchouts in six of them.
First double-digit K performance in The Show for Chase Burns!
MLB's No. 2 prospect logs 15 swing-and-misses en route to a 10-strikeout night for the @Reds: pic.twitter.com/RbVL2cgp3j
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 12, 2025
The right-hander was primarily a two-pitch pitcher, relying on his four-seamer and slider almost 89.0% of the time. He occasionally mixed in a changeup (5.6% usage). However, despite being a two-pitch pitcher, Burns was quite dominant, and according to his underlying metrics, he looks like MLB's next breakout star.
His four-seamer posted a 25.2% whiff rate with a .320 xwOBA. His slider generated whiffs at a 42.9% rate while carrying a stellar .223 xwOBA.
While his somewhat limited projected workload may have prevented him from finishing within the top-5 in total strikeouts, the recent news regarding Hunter Greene (elbow) could open the door for him to become a major contributor in this rotation. Greene is set to be sidelined throughout July, which opens up a major role in the rotation.
Even though Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo figure to operate as the top-2 options, Burns could easily slide in as the No. 3 and be required to take on a larger-than-expected role with Green on the shelf for most of the season. If he continues this pace and remains a starter for the entire season, Burns could push for a 200-strikeout season.
Griffin Jax is a Top-5 RP, Tallies 100+ Strikeouts with 25+ Saves
While Williams is projected to be my top reliever in terms of saves, let's dig a bit deeper and find the league-winning relief pitcher to conclude our bold predictions. Last season, we saw Emilio Pagan and Carlos Estevez provide immediate value on their ADP and were the primary late-round closers to draft.
While Bryan Abreu has seen his stock rise with Josh Hader's biceps injury, I predict that Tampa Bay's Griffin Jax will provide massive returns at his current 186 ADP on NFBC drafts and finish as a borderline top-5 relief pitcher.
Jax is currently in a Tampa Bay bullpen that has several viable high-leverage options, such as Edwin Uceta and left-hander Garrett Cleavinger. However, with Uceta battling a shoulder injury and in danger of missing Opening Day, Jax could emerge as the go-to option much earlier than previously expected.
Throughout his time in Minnesota, Jax typically operated as the setup man behind Jhoan Duran but was one of the game's top strikeout pitchers.
Over the past two seasons, Jax posted a K% above 34.0%, placing him in the 98th percentile or higher each season. In 2024, Jax was dominant, holding a 2.03 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP. While his surface value ratios took a step back in 2025 (4.23 ERA), his underlying 3.26 xERA suggests he should see a significant positive regression in 2026.
Give his elite strikeout potential and Uceta's early injury, Jax could flirt with a 100-strikeout season while totaling 25+ saves on a Rays team that should be in the Wild Card race. If you choose to fade the high-end options at the position, be sure to target Jax near the end of your draft, as he could be this year's Pagan or Estevez, just with elite strikeout totals.
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