RADIO
In the early weeks of this NFL season, fantasy managers have been vexed by players like Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, Cam Akers, and many a Moore. One player who was expected to do well upon joining a new team for a presumptive quarterback upgrade was Allen Robinson II.
Yet in his first game as a Ram, the three-time 1,000-yard WR caught just a single pass. He scored a touchdown the next week, but then he gained a total of 42 yards in Weeks 2-5 and was the No. 4 option on his team.
Now, A-Rob has his fans crowing about a “breakout” after he had his best game of the season in Week 6. In fact, the 29-year-old even outscored his teammate Cooper Kupp. With five catches for 63 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers, Robinson ranked as the WR13 in PPR. But I am here to tell you now is not the time to buy a Robinson breakout. This was not his coming out party. It was the predictable outcome of the Rams playing a bad team that could not shut down their offense. Robinson will be rendered unusable again in his next matchup against a capable defense (that’s in two weeks).
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Predicting Rams Outcomes
Unlike some teams this year whose results seem random and unpredictable, like the Colts or the Packers, the Rams’ results have been entirely predictable based on the quality of the opponent. If you plot the Rams’ weekly points scored against the average points allowed this season by each of their opponents, you will see a highly correlated linear regression.
The Rams beat the Falcons, Cardinals, and Panthers. Of those, only the Cardinals were a playoff team in 2021, and they lost in the Wild Card round. The other two had losing records. The Rams lost to the Bills, Cowboys, and 49ers. All three of them were playoff teams, and two of them made it past the first round.
So, the Rams are 1-3 against teams coming off a playoff season and 2-0 against teams with a losing record last season. Allen Robinson II scored a touchdown and went over 50 yards in both of those games against losing teams.
Robinson's Splits
In games against teams that made the playoffs last season, Allen Robinson is averaging just 1.35 fantasy points per game (PPR). In games against teams that missed the playoffs, Robinson is averaging 11.8 points per game.
| PPR Points | Targets | Rec | Yards | |||||
| Higbee | A-Rob | TH | AR | TH | AR | TH | AR | |
| In Wins | 4.97 | 8.63 | 5.00 | 5.33 | 4.00 | 3.67 | 46.33 | 46.33 |
| In Losses | 5.17 | 1.03 | 11.67 | 4.33 | 7.33 | 2.00 | 52.67 | 10.33 |
| Vs ’21 Losing Teams | 4.40 | 11.80 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 4.00 | 4.50 | 39.00 | 58.00 |
| Vs ’21 Playoff Teams | 5.40 | 1.35 | 9.75 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 2.00 | 54.75 | 13.50 |
The opposite is true of Rams tight end Tyler Higbee. Going into the Panthers game as the TE6 on the season, Higbee was only targeted twice and made one catch. Kupp too was targeted less than usual against the Panthers.
Matthew Stafford's Struggles
The reason is obvious. In games against poor-quality opponents, the Rams can get their offense going. Matthew Stafford had a 100.7 passer rating against the Falcons and a 96.1 rating against the Panthers. In the three games that the Rams lost—all against top-10 defenses—Stafford has never had a passer rating higher than 86.2.
| Stafford | Passer Rating | Times Sacked | TDs | INTs |
| Vs Top 10 Defenses | 73.4 | 6.33 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Vs Bottom 16 Defenses | 100.1 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
What happens in those games, because the running backs get stuffed, the patchwork offensive line gets demolished, and Robinson cannot get open as Stafford is forced to lock onto Kupp every play or drop short passes to Higbee to get rid of the ball.
The answer for the Rams is not, “They win when they spread the ball around.” That’s reversing cause and effect. The Rams win when they play bad teams. They are able to spread the ball around against bad teams because the secondary receivers can get can open, and Stafford has time to wait for plays to develop.
Most ordinary wide receivers are going to do better against worse defenses, but that has been especially true of Robinson, who has been extremely touchdown-dependent this season. He has only produced starter-worthy efforts when he finds the end zone. In his two good games, his touchdowns have produced as many fantasy points as his yardage.
Higbee and Kupp are different than Robinson. They produce more PPR points through the air when the Rams' offense shuts down because they are the only options. Higbee is the safety blanket underneath, and Kupp is the stud.
| Stafford | Passer Rating | Times Sacked | TDs | INTs |
| Vs Top 10 Defenses | 73.4 | 6.33 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Vs Bottom 16 Defenses | 100.1 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
The statistical production of Kupp and Higbee is not following the real-life game results of their team. They are doing better when the Rams are losing. This was not true of last season. Both Kupp and Higbee averaged more yards per game in wins than losses last season. And it can’t be the sign of a healthy offense.
Going forward, you can expect the Rams' offense to put up some points against teams with average-or-worse defenses, and Robinson should be a playable option in those games (while Higbee is a likely sit). Against teams with good offenses, no one on the Rams is a good option except for Kupp and Higbee.
The Rams' Tough Road Forward
Unfortunately for Robinson’s managers, the Rams face a lot of games against quality defenses going forward. After their Week 7 bye, their next game is a home rematch against the 49ers—the team that held the Rams to nine points and Robinson to two catches for seven yards. Following the 49ers is a road game in Tampa Bay against the No. 6 scoring defense.
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: vs SF
Week 9: @TB
Week 10: vs Ari
Week 11: @NO
Week 12: @KC
Week 13: vs Sea
Week 14: vs LV
Week 15: @GB
Week 16: vs Den
Week 17: @LAC
One thing we don’t know is where the cut-off is where the Rams can produce. So far, they have lost to three elite defenses and beaten an average Panthers defense, but they have not faced any "just pretty good" defenses yet. The Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys rank No. 1, 2, and 3, respectively, in points allowed. (The No. 4 Broncos are on the Rams' schedule in Week 16.)
But what about a team like the Chiefs? They have allowed more points than 26 teams, in part because they move the ball quickly and force their opponents to do the same, but they also rank No. 14 in sacks per game, and the Rams struggle against teams with a strong pass rush.
There are a couple of teams with very bad defenses on the schedule the Rams will assuredly do well against like the Cardinals again and the Seahawks twice. But the games against the Packers, Saints, Chargers, and Raiders are more difficult to predict. Either way, you cannot be too confident the Rams will show a new spark that will make Robinson a fantasy star for the rest of the season.
Time to Sell Robinson?
Robinson just had his best game to date against one of the worst teams on his schedule. This doesn’t fix the dysfunctional Rams offense. The Rams know this, and one way they are trying to fix their offense is by bringing in a new receiver to displace Robinson. They have made offers to Odell Beckham Jr., and they may be looking for a receiver on the trade market, plus Van Jefferson is expected back in Week 9.
If the Rams add a receiver, Robinson could see his target share diminish, but if they don’t, they will remain a highly inconsistent team that is unable to produce against a good deal of the teams remaining on their schedule.
Allen Robinson’s value is at a peak it may never again reach this season.
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