X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Sleepers and Busts - NL Relief Pitchers

Early-season drafts do not always tend to be reflective of a player's actual value. Average draft position does not tend to stabilize until closer to Opening Day but that does not stop people like myself (and presumably you as well if you're reading this) from drafting well before then.

The ADP of relief pitchers is unique from all other players. Depending on format and scoring, the value of relief pitching can fluctuate drastically. In roto leagues, relievers tend to be more valuable because they are the only ones who can get saves, whereas in points leagues, and pitcher can rack up points. When the position does not even have consistency within itself, you can bet that there is not going to be a ton of consistency from draft to draft.

Take a look at Kenley Jansen, for example. In NFBC, he has been drafted as high as 18th and as low as 59th. That discrepancy is why I'm writing this article: to examine the ADP of NL relief pitchers and picking out guys who are under or overvalued. Keep in mind the season is still nearly a month away, so there is time for the market to correct itself. That said, this is how the reliever draft market is shaking out as of early March.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Undervalued NL Relief Pitchers

ADP data courtesy of NFBC and based on all players, not just the National League.

Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 101)

Iglesias has been nothing but lights-out since a full-time move to the bullpen in the middle of 2016. Since becoming a reliever, the Cuban flamethrower has posted an impressive 2.29 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, and 1.05 WHIP. He's also done all of this while acting more as a fireman than a true closer; 35 of his 100 appearances since becoming a full-time reliever have been longer than one inning.

Iglesias has also notched 34 saves in this time frame and has been among the best of the best relievers in baseball. Here is a full list of relievers who have thrown at least 50 IP in relief with a better ERA, WHIP, and K/9 than Iglesias since June 21, 2016 (the day he moved to the bullpen): Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand, Nate Jones, Chad Green. Of that group, only Kimbrel, Chapman, and Jones also had a higher average fastball velocity in that time frame (it's worth noting that Kenley Jansen throws a sinker, not a fastball). Pretty good company, right? So it does not make a whole lot of sense that Iglesias is going outside the top 100 as the 10th reliever off the board (4th in NL-only leagues). At his current ADP, Iglesias is a steal, especially considering that the Reds should afford him more save opportunities in 2018 than they did in 2017.

Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 188) 

Bradley and Iglesias are similar in a lot of ways. Both began their careers as starters and then transitioned (seamlessly, might I add), to relievers. It took Bradley a little longer to finally make the transition (he didn't go to the pen until 2017), but the results have largely been the same. Bradley boasted the 12th-best pitching WAR among all relievers in baseball in 2017 and his 1.73 ERA ranked 8th.

The Diamondbacks opted to go with Fernando Rodney as their closer in 2017, but with Rodney gone, Bradley is the next in line to inherit the closer role. Brad Boxberger was picked up by the snakes this season, but considering that he has thrown only 53.2 innings since the start of the 2016 season (for reference, 137 relievers threw that many innings in 2017 alone), he should not be a big threat to Bradley closing. If the 25-year-old doesn't win the closer job out of spring training, he should be able to snap it up by the end of April or early May. Regardless, his current draft price is far too low considering the upside here.

Brandon Morrow, Chicago Cubs (ADP: 194)

The fact that Morrow is going this low is nothing short of shocking. The Cubs afforded their relievers 57 save opportunities last season, and now that their 2017 team leader in saves is no longer on the team, all those opportunities have to go to someone else. Enter Brandon Morrow. Morrow was inked to a two-year, $21MM deal by the Cubbies after a 2017 campaign that saw him post career-bests in FIP (1.55), WHIP (0.916), and K/BB (5.56). Morrow is penciled in as the team's closer to start the season and should be penciled in all of your fantasy lineups because this draft price is far too low to pass up.

Brad Ziegler, Miami Marlins (ADP: 362)

Much like Morrow, Ziegler's ADP is a head-scratcher. Ziegler, like Morrow, is penciled in as his team's Opening Day closer. Unlike Morrow, Ziegler plays for a team that is not going to win many games in 2018. In fact, the Marlins will probably lose the most games in all of baseball in 2018. No matter, because even the San Francisco Giants, who finished last in baseball in 2017, provided their bullpen with 54 save opportunities in 2018.

Ziegler is not as flashy as any of the other names on this list, but sometimes opportunity trumps talent in fantasy. Especially considering Ziegler's age (he's 38... seriously), the Marlins are going to want to pump up his trade value by showing teams that he can close out games so they can maximize his trade value before the deadline. Kyle Barraclough, who is actually being selected ahead of Ziegler in most mock drafts, probably will not get many save opportunities until late July at the earliest because the Marlins will want to get something of value in return for Ziegler in a trade. Scoop Ziegler up in the last round of your drafts this season and enjoy the cheap saves.

 

Overvalued NL Relief Pitchers

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP: 37)

Jansen being overrated is more a product of his ADP than his skill level. Everyone knows what Jansen will give them: 40+ saves, an ERA right around or below 2.00, a WHIP around 0.800, and an obscene strikeout to walk ratio. Jansen is elite. He is one of the best relievers in the game right now, and is certainly the best reliever in the National League. But with all of that being said, it does not make sense to select Jansen when guys like Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Luis Severino, and Corey Seager are all going within a few picks of Jansen. Chances are that when your pick comes up in the mid-30s to early-40s range, one of the other players will be available. Those other players are simply going to provide more value to your team in 2018 than a closer who will likely only throw around 65 innings. Again, Jansen is still elite, but you'd be better served spending a pick at his ADP to get someone who is going to play more.

Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 144)

Neris was solid as the Phillies closer last year. Over the course of the 2017 season, he picked up 26 saves and posted a 3.01 ERA and 1.259 WHIP. All of these numbers are solid, but nothing jumps off the page. Neris benefited from the fact that he was really the team's only reliable bullpen option. This season, Neris will have to stave off both Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter, both of whom were acquired in the offseason. His chances of picking up a handful of saves in 2018 are pretty good, but his chances of remaining the closer until the end of the season are not as high as they were last year, especially considering that Philadelphia will want to boost the trade value of Neshek and Hunter so they can trade them at the deadline. You'd be better served pursuing any of the options in the undervalued category above than going after Neris.

Jeurys Familia, New York Mets (ADP: 180)

It's hard to call a player who is being drafted at the back end of the top 200 overvalued, but that's just a testament to how overvalued Familia is. That's not to say that Familia won't pitch well in 2018, but new Mets skipper Mickey Callaway has already expressed that he wants to open the season with a closer-by-committee approach. Considering that Archie Bradley and Brandon Morrow can be had a few picks after Familia, and they are both likely to see more save opportunities than Familia, save yourself the trouble of dealing with a Mets closer committee that figures to be frustrating for fantasy owners and pass on the veteran righty.

 

Wrap-up

Fantasy owners tend to get worked up about ensuring that they will have enough relievers with save opportunities on their roster coming out of the draft. If you don't end up with the crop of relievers that you had hoped you would, fret not. Saves are readily available on the wire provided you are attentive throughout the season (Corey Knebel and Felipe Rivero were both waiver-wire adds last season).

If you're in a points league, ensuring that you get a reliever who will post gaudy save totals is not a necessity; pitchers like Anthony Swarzak and Carl Edwards Jr. will provide a lot of value by throwing a lot of quality innings despite not getting many saves. Bottom line: don't overpay for saves and pay attention to the waiver wire during the season and you should end up with one of the better relief pitching corps in your league.

 

More Draft Values and Sleepers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
ANA

Mikael Granlund Moves to Anaheim on Three-Year Deal
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
NJ

Jake Allen Signs Five-Year Extension With Devils
VAN

Brock Boeser Remains in Vancouver on Seven-Year Deal
Conor Garland

Signs New Six-Year Deal with Canucks
Thatcher Demko

Signs Three-Year Extension with Canucks
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary Agrees to Seven-Year Extension with Capitals
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
MLB

Brewers-Mets Postponed on Tuesday
MLB

Tigers-Nationals Postponed on Tuesday
Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Bo Bichette

Out Again on Tuesday
Trent Grisham

Likely Heading to Injured List
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Royce Lewis

Twins Activate Royce Lewis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
Corbin Carroll

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
Yordan Alvarez

Could Return Early Next Week
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Kerry Carpenter

Shelved with Hamstring Issue
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Waived By Milwaukee
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Andrei Kuzmenko

Signs Up for One More Year with Kings
Morgan Geekie

Signs Long-Term Extension with Bruins
Ivan Provorov

Stays in Columbus on Seven-Year Deal
Alex Pietrangelo

Stepping Away From Golden Knights for Health Reasons
Matias Maccelli

Maple Leafs Bring in Matias Maccelli
Evan Bouchard

Inks $42 Million Contract with Oilers
Vladimir Tarasenko

Wild Acquire Vladimir Tarasenko From Detroit
Patrick Kane

Signs New One-Year Deal with Red Wings
Brad Marchand

Lands Six-Year Extension
Aaron Ekblad

Remains a Panther on Eight-Year Deal
Mitchell Marner

Heads to Vegas
Randy Arozarena

Homers Twice, Plates Four Monday
Shea Langeliers

Hits Three-Run Homer In Return From Injured List Monday
Wilyer Abreu

Belts Grand Slam and Hits Inside-the-Park Home Run
Philadelphia 76ers

Trendon Watford Lands in Philadelphia
New York Knicks

Jordan Clarkson Expected to Sign With Knicks
Santi Aldama

Remains with Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Lands in Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Clippers

Brook Lopez Strikes Deal With Clippers
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Chicago Bulls

Tre Jones Remaining in Chicago
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Houston Rockets

Dorian Finney-Smith Signing With Rockets
Atlanta Hawks

Caris LeVert Joining Pistons
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF