January 15, 2018

Andre looks at three NBA sleepers -- Josh Richardson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Aaron Gordon -- who out-performed their ADP in fantasy basketball drafts.

Hello again, it’s me, the burgeoning young upstart, back at it again with my fantasy basketball snippets.

As promised, here’s part two of my ADP Outperformers, where we are comparing the average draft position of players to their current fantasy rank. The names today should basically be household names for any serious fantasy managers, but perhaps they weren’t supposed to be as touted for their talent and value as they are right now.

Again, let’s be reminded that sometimes situation veils true value, and, today, the analysis is working to wipe away the smoke and mirrors, and reveal the true prospect that each of these three players are. Last week, I wrote on Lou Williams, Taj Gibson, and Nikola Vucevic. They are all players who have been in the league for a while, and their value is pretty understood. This week, we are looking at younger players in their third or fourth season in the NBA; a period of time that players will truly break out after getting a couple of seasons under their belts. Let’s see if the ranks for Josh Richardson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Aaron Gordon are truly representative of their future value in fantasy basketball.

ADP Outperformers Part II

Josh Richardson

BBM Rank: 79 // ’17-’18 ADP: 183.5

Affectionately known as JRich, this third-year star, who previously gave fantasy owners headaches with his poor shooting spurts last season, has soared to be arguably the Miami Heat’s best player. The past six weeks has seen Richardson at his potential. He has risen 84 spots in the rankings in the past month with only a 1.7 minute per game increase during this time. Richardson is averaging 12.7/3.2/2.6 with shooting splits of 45.6/35.3/82.4. He has a usage rate of 17.8% and, over the past month, his game averages are 37 minutes per game. Here are the biggest changes for Richardson. He is playing almost all his minutes at the small forward position now, and he has shown improvements simply by being held responsible for guarding the opponent’s best scorer night to night.

In his first two seasons combined, he only played 106 games. This season, he has started in every game. Miami has been affected by injuries to Hassan Whiteside and Dion Waiters. It’s the injury to Justise Winslow that really opened up a spot for Richardson to shine and monopolize the 3 spot. But Winslow has proven to be a non-shooter over his first few seasons, so managers should not see Winslow’s return as a threat. Also, with Waiters recently being sidelined for season-ending surgery, Josh Richardson could see time at the 2 spot as well. He has upped his shots to 12.6 per game over the last month. He is shooting 4.6 threes and 1.8 free throws per game. He also provides 1.2 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2 turnovers. He still has to improve his three-point shooting as 43.5 of his shot selections come from behind the arc, but it’s encouraging to see his newfound ability to create his own shots.

Miami’s best lineup consists of Goran Dragic, Wayne Ellington, Richardson, James Johnson, and Kelly Olynyk. They are a ragtag bunch that wouldn’t inspire a casual fan, but they are producing a 19.7 net rating. Switch out Ellington for Tyler Johnson and some more ball handling, and they produce a 32.3 net rating with a 94 defensive rating. Dragic and Richardson have played the most minutes together (830) and they have the most combined average touches per game on their team (78.3 and 55.9 respectively)

Obviously, Richardson is a major part of the Heat’s future. He is a stabilizer with increasing upside that’s going to benefit from injuries. He’s improved in shot creation and defense, and he’s the prospect that I believe has the most potential value out of any of these ADP outperformers.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

BBM Rank: 75 // ’17-’18 ADP: 138.5

To be frank, I barely had an idea of who RHJ was before this season, but he has proven to be a menace in Brooklyn. RHJ is averaging 14.6/6.8/2.1 with 47.1/26.5/79.8 shooting percentages. His usage rate is up to 22.5% this season and he produces 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 1.6 turnovers. Hollis-Jefferson spends most of his minutes at power forward, but is used as a small ball center at times. He is another 3^rd year player that needs more time to develop but is seeing the second most touches on his team (61) and the most front court touches (34.6). He is averaging 28.5 minutes per game and has almost doubled his shot attempts (11.2).

RHJ is really thriving because the Nets don’t have a reliable front court bully. Tyler Zeller, the rookie, Jarrett Allen, and Jahlil Okafor all share minutes at the center spot. However, these three all have inexperience or deficiencies that can pull them off the court. I would say that RHJ is a steal for any punt 3 team, sitting at mid-round value for what was a late round scoop at best. Hollis-Jefferson displays a wonky, erratic offensive game, but he is using it more effectively to score this season. If he learns to bring his shot selection inside more--he is currently shooting 21.7% of his shots from 10-16 feet away from the basket--he should improve, especially with D’Angelo Russell returning to feed him.

My outlook on RHJ is somewhat lukewarm. His defense should anchor his value when Russell returns, except in the 234 minutes they’ve shared the court, they carry a defensive rating of 112.9. I can potentially see his touches and points coming down the return of Russell and Jeremy Lin for the next season. There is also the fear that a smart general manager like Sean Marks could try to get a strong defensive center involved in Brooklyn. All these factors could pull down RHJ’s value, so I would try to sell high if possible, but he should hold 7^th-8^th round value for the remainder of this season.

Aaron Gordon

BBM Rank: 44 // ’17-’18 ADP: 81

Orlando’s high-flying dunker started off the season MOLTEN, and the bandwagon for Magic fans shot off into the air before it came crashing down like the rest of Orlando’s season. But Gordon has still shown plenty of fantasy value. Gordon has produced averages of 18.8/8.0/2.1 with shooting splits of 46.5/37.4/73.8. He also has 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 1.8 turnovers. He benefits from playing a position at the 4 that suits him better rather than being oversized at the 3 last season and crashing on the court with two other bigs on his team. He has been injured in small stretches, playing 34 of the 43 Magic games so far, and his shooting percentages have come down since returning from injury.

His shooting percentages have steadily been falling from 54.9% in October to 47.5% in December from the field. Also, his three point averages have come down from 59.1% to 36% in the same time period. He was shooting way too well to be realistic early on, but his usage rate has soared up to the high 20s and there is genuine offensive improvement. His value will come from points, threes, and rebounds; the rest of the fantasy categories slots are too inconsistent to count on for Gordon. When Nikola Vucevic returns from his hand injury, that will hurt Gordon’s touches since Vucevic is also a big that spreads the floor. As Elfrid Payton inevitably finds his shooting stroke again, Gordon could be hurting for shots. Add on the fact that the Magic don’t run very good offensive schemes, and the opportunity for AG to create his own shots diminishes. I think that, over the remainder of the season, Gordon could have stretches where his ADP looks accurate.

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