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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Thursday Night Football - the Ravens vs Dolphins showdown slate. His Week 10 TNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Week Ten is here! I can't believe we're halfway through the season already. Unfortunately, we have a bit of a stinker for tonight's TNF matchup as the Ravens (6-2) head down to South Beach to take on the Dolphins (2-7). Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on November 11th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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DFS Captains/MVPs
Mark Andrews ($13,200 DK, $16,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 61 targets, 42 receptions, 560 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 72.11% snap rate, 22.76% target rate, 23.33% red-zone target rate, six end zone targets.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 24.4% (10th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 15% (22nd)
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: 24.7% (28th)
- Individual Matchup (vs Brandon Jones): 6% target rate, 92% catch rate, 0.14 fantasy points per route.
Lamar is extremely expensive tonight, so on DraftKings, we'll have to look at some different options. I start with Andrews due to his positive matchup. Andrews has seen at least six targets in four consecutive games, and there's no reason that trend shouldn't continue unless the Ravens absolutely throttle Miami. Even then, Andrews should get his, making him a top 1.5x slot option for me tonight.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Lamar Jackson, Jaylen Waddle, Myles Gaskin
Jaylen Waddle ($12,300 DK, $16,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 79 targets, 56 receptions, 496 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 83.28% snap rate, 22.7% target rate, 25% red-zone target rate, one end zone target.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: -1.7% (25th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 27.7% (23rd)
- Opposing DVOA vs #1 WR: 16% (3rd)
- Individual Matchup (vs Tavon Young): 15% target rate, 81% catch rate, 0.27 fantasy points per route.
One of the two Miami captains I'm considering tonight, Waddle has seen more than 10 targets in three of his last four games. He's been seeing volume regardless of who's under center, which is uncertain heading into tonight as Tua remains questionable as I write this.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Jacoby Brissett/Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, Devonta Freeman
Other Captain/MVP Plays: Lamar Jackson, Myles Gaskin, Devonta Freeman
DFS Flex Plays
Lamar Jackson ($13,800 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,209 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 97 rushes, 600 yards, two touchdowns.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 24.4% (10th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 15% (22nd)
I would be remiss if I didn't mention Lamar on this slate. He's super pricey on DraftKings, but he's a must-play on FanDuel. Lamar is essentially game-script-proof due to his running ability. I think Miami is pretty bad but I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens are in a dog fight until the fourth quarter.
Recommendation: Cash (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Jacoby Brissett/Tua Tagovailoa
Myles Gaskin ($9,400 DK, $13,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 86 attempts, 313 rushing yards, one touchdown, 46 targets, 188 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 54.8% snap rate, 44.79% attempt rate, 37.5% red zone attempt rate, 13.22% target rate, 18.75% red zone target rate.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: -31.5% (30th)
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -15.1% (12th)
- Opposing DVOA vs RB (Receiving): 49.3% (31st)
The reason I rate Gaskin so high tonight is because of his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. I assume that Baltimore should win this one easily at the end, though it could be a decent game throughout. This opens an opportunity for Miami guys like Waddle, Gesicki, and Gaskin to catch passes in order to move the sticks, and I expect the offense to work through those three guys primarily.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown
Other Flex Plays: Devonta Freeman, Mike Gesicki, Marquise Brown
DFS Value Plays
Ravens D/ST ($4,400 DK)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 189 points allowed, 15 sacks, five interceptions, two fumble recoveries.
- Defensive DVOA: 4.9% (24th)
- Opposing Offense DVOA: -15.4% (25th)
The Ravens defense hasn't been as stout as it's been in previous years, but it's still good enough to get the job done when needed. They get a fantastic matchup against Miami, who only scored 17 points against Houston on Sunday. Now they turn it around and are still unsure of who will be under center tonight, making the Ravens D/ST a solid value play on tonight's slate.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Lamar Jackson, Devonta Freeman
Justin Tucker ($4,000 DK, $9,500 FD)
Tucker is 16/17 on field-goal attempts this season, including three of over 50 yards. It's well known that he's one of, if not the best, kickers in football. Considering the matchup, I feel like Tucker has a solid floor tonight and you can fit him into either your cash or GPP lineups on either site.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Lamar Jackson, Ravens D/ST
Other Value Plays: Devin Duvernay, Mack Hollins
Overall Slate Note
There's a decent amount of consolidation in these offenses, specifically on Miami's side. You're going to see a ton of Gaskin/Waddle/Gesicki from them, regardless of who's under center. I probably will play the quarterback from Miami, whomever it is, in a decent chunk of my lineups, pairing them with one or two of those three I mentioned above. Another thing to keep an eye on is the status of Sammy Watkins, who is also questionable as I'm writing this. Good luck!
Have a good Thursday everyone, see you soon!
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