RADIO
Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Butterfield Bermuda Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Butterfield Bermuda Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Port Royal Golf Course
6,828 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bermuda
Welcome to what will be one of the weakest fields of the year! One-hundred and thirty-two players are set to tee it up at the Bermuda Championship, and even if you added in a superstar like Jason Day to the mix, the field would still be considered flawed.
Port Royal Golf Course is positioned right on the Atlantic Ocean coastline. We can get into what that means from a strategy standpoint shortly, but this is the second shortest venue on the PGA Tour - behind only Pebble Beach. It should go without saying that the track plays as straightforward as the yardage might indicate, but it gets even more emphasized when you look at the construction of the property. Most of the yardage we see on the surface is baked into three of the four par-threes, with those three holes ranking as your most difficult. Each will feature between a 26.1 and 32.5% bogey or worse rate, and the yardage stretches between 213 to 235 yards. When we look at the top-10 finishers over the past two seasons, strokes gained on par threes have been the most impactful. That does flip when looking at just cut-makers, but to me, that shows earning shots on the par-fours and fives will be most crucial in making the cut, while being able to separate from the pack on par threes will give golfers the push they need to compete for the title. Of the 11 par-fours, only one plays over 450 yards, and it is questionable at best not including it into the 400-450 yard range since it measures at 458. I am including it in that group since holes get moved around off the tee, giving us six between 350-400 and five from 400-450. The three par-fives are extremely gettable at 553, 517 and 507. The par-five 7th accounted for 17% of DK points in 2019 and allowed 242 birdies to go along with 25 eagles. If you aren’t scoring on these holes, your weekend will probably get cut short, and despite having one less than your standard Par 72, I am always going to weigh the category when we are talking about eagle rates ranging between 1.8 and 4.7%.
The last part of the equation is the weather that I talked about to open this discussion, but I am not going to get overly concerned with pinpointing a specific tee time. Sure, it might end up coming into play marginally, but we aren’t talking about a more volatile location where winds will come and go. I’d instead weigh wind in a model as a whole and go in with the mindset that you will always have to deal with steady breezes on a coastal course.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Port Royal | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 51% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 64% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.56 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Matthew Fitzpatrick leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by Christian Bezuidenhout at 14/1, Mito Periera and Patrick Reed at 20/1 and Hayden Buckley at 25/1
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Total: Moderate to Severe Wind (12.5%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Less Than 7,200 Yards (12.5%)
- Weighted Slow Bermuda - (SG Total + Putting) - (10%)
- Weighted Par-Three (10%)
- Weighted Par-Four (17.5%)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%)
- Total Driving + GIR - (Geared Towards Accuracy) - (15%)
- Proximity 0-150 (12.5%)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($10,700) - Christiaan Bezuidenhout is priced where he should be, according to my model. I know that sounds weird to say, but he ranks inside the top-16 in five of the eight categories I ran, which includes not finishing outside of 59th anywhere.
- Most Upside: Patrick Reed ($10,400) - Patrick Reed is looking like the contrarian pivot of the group, with my early projections having him just above 10%. The current form has not been good since returning from his battle with pneumonia that placed him in the hospital - evident by tee to green totals of negative-6.76 strokes per his last three starts- but I wouldn’t put it past him getting himself into contention.
- Favorite GPP Play: The group is similar - It depends on what you are trying to accomplish in your build. Reed is the easy contrarian target, but the rest have similarities with their upside potential.
- Fade: Mito Periera $10,500) - Fade might be too strong of a word, but he has a negative upside rank, making him the only choice above $10,000 to fall under that classification.
- Most Likely Winner: Patrick Reed ($10,400) - But it also must be noted that he is the most likely to miss the cut. Seamus Power, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are right there when it comes to potential. Reed is more MME. I am fine using the rest in other game types.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: I wouldn't necessarily classify anyone from this tier safe.
- Most Upside: Chad Ramey ($9,500) - Chad Ramey checks a ton of boxes. He ranks second in his young career in strokes gained approach and is an excellent driver of the ball that can score with the best of them on par-fives. If you want to get super contrarian, I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibilities to start builds in this range, but that is an MME-type roster over what you would do in a single-entry or three-max.
- Favorite GPP Play: Matthias Schwab ($9,700) - You won't hear an argument from me that Matthias Schwab is overpriced, but I don’t think he is anymore so than whatever name you want to mention from this range. A more proper price tag would likely have been in the mid-to-low $8,000s, but we are talking about a golfer that is projected to be less than three percent owned while still ranking inside the top-30 of my upside plays. The mindset behind him is purely large-field GPPs, but I don’t mind throwing him into lineups with a ton of entries because of the leverage he creates.
- Fade: Hayden Buckley ($9,900) - I do not like this price tag at all, and I even more so don't like the ownership.
- Most Likely Winner: Chad Ramey ($9,500)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Sahith Theegala ($8,800) - Theegala looks like an excellent bargain across the board after burning the industry at the Shriners. I love his ability to scramble and avoid making bogey. We see those two strengths in my model with his ranks of first in bogey avoidance and 2nd in scrambling. That is a good combination to possess if the wind turns violent.
- Most Upside: Guido Migliozzi ($8,700) - I could do without Guido Migliozzi's ownership that currently places him as the second-most popular choice on the board, but it is essential to mention that not all chalk is terrible. Migliozzi looks like the definition of good chalk to me. He ranks third in my weighted par-four category, ninth in windy conditions and eighth at courses under 7,200 yards.
- Favorite GPP Play: Stephan Jaeger ($8,400) - I don’t mind taking a shot on Jaeger at $8,400. For all the love around Mito Periera, Jaeger was the top point scorer on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and looks like a value because of his short iron proximity and bogey avoidance numbers. Some of my math is lower on him because of the three tournaments I have in my system this year, but this is the perfect venue for him to provide a significant result.
- Fade: Garrick Higgo ($8,300)
- Most Likely Winner: Guido Migliozzi ($8,700)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Alex Smalley ($7,600)
- Most Upside: Bo Hoag ($7,000)
- Favorite GPP Play: Harry Hall ($7,200)
- Fade: Brian Gay ($7,100)
- Most Likely Winner: I think the winner does ultimately come from this group. There are a ton of good choices, but I will go with Harry Hall ($7,200)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Cameron Percy $6,900, Kurt Kitayama $6,800, Chase Seiffert $6,600, Sean O'Hair $6,600, Dylan Wu $6,500 and David Lingmerth $6,200
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