RADIO
Thunder Dan's NBA best bets are back! We kicked things off on Wednesday with a 2-1 day which led to a profitable evening and I'm hoping we can keep that rolling tonight.
We have ten games to choose from tonight and I'm going to try not to overreact to a one-game sample size of data. I will also caution you to be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun the first few weeks and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, October 22nd, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.
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Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last year developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 2-1
- Against the Spread 1-0
- Over/Under 0-1
- Teasers/Parlays 1-0
NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
San Antonio Spurs (+7) @ Denver Nuggets (220 total)
It's time for our first underdog bet as I am going to be rolling with the Spurs here. They were impressive on opening night in a 123-97 dismantling of Orlando and have a really solid young nucleus of players in Derrick White, Jakob Poeltl, Dejounte Murray, and Keldon Johnson.
Denver looked good on Wednesday, too, as they pulled off a 110-98 upset of the defending Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns. I'm not ready to go out on a limb and predict a Spurs victory against the Joker and company on the road, but I have these teams projected nearly even so far, and even with Denver getting a bump at home, seven points is just too many for a game that I think will be really competitive.
San Antonio had the best cover rate as road dogs last season (63.6%) and I think they keep this one close.
The Pick: San Antonio +7, -105 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
I included the model today for a few reasons. One was just to get a good laugh as it went crazy when I input only one game of data from the 2021 season. The other reason was to illustrate a few aspects about the model is set up.
With only one game to go off for each team, we are going to see major outliers here as some teams scored a lot more or fewer points than they are going to on a nightly basis. We also had a double-overtime game in Boston-New York that is inflating that total as well.
But there's one game that really pops today - and that's the Cavs-Hornets matchup!
Charlotte Hornets (-3) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (225.5 total)
While I don't think it's going for 260 points like the model suggests, I was happy to see that I wasn't the only person whose system was being thrown off by this game as well-known CBS betting expert Jeff Sagarin has it pegged for 255!
Early bettors have already moved this line one full point as it opened at 224.5 and I expect that to keep moving. Both teams played at a high pace in their opener, which certainly bodes well for the over. I wouldn't call either of these teams offensive powerhouses, but I think both will be improved offenses this season and with both teams scoring over 120 points on Wednesday that looks like it could be true.
Charlotte has a budding superstar in LaMelo Ball and capable shooters and scorers around him, while the Cavs have added outstanding rookie Evan Mobley, talented shooter Lauri Markkanen, and veteran point guard Ricky Rubio.
When you combine the improved offenses, high projected pace, and rather poor defenses - this is a perfect storm for a bunch of points tonight. Grab it now before it moves too much, but I feel pretty good about the over here all the way up to around 227 or even 228.
The Pick: Over 225.5 (good up to 227), -135 DraftKings Sportsbook, if you wait til it moves again you could get better odds or go ahead and do a alternate total bet.
Sometimes I will be posting teasers with point totals, but I won't feel really good about totals for a few slates until we get several games worth of data to crunch.
The Knicks had a big win against Boston on Wednesday and now get a rebuilding Magic team that was trounced by the Spurs. The Knicks are going to be good this year and they should handle Orlando here. Meanwhile, Boston should bounce back against another young team, the Toronto Raptors, who looked horrible in their opener. They won't be that bad every night, but they could really struggle until they get Siakam back. And to finish off the parlay, I'm riding with the Bulls again. They let Detroit hang around in their opener, but I am still a believer in this team and the Pelicans fell apart in the second half and ended up being blown out by Philly. Both Boston and Chicago are at home, and the Knicks should beat the Magic 99 times out of 100 in any arena.
I'm tossing in a teaser here with some of the teams I already mentioned as well as the Sixers, who I really like as home underdogs today against Brooklyn. If you want to bet the Sixers ML at plus odds, I'm here for it but I'm going to build in some cushion here in case they do end up losing but keep it close. I won't do a parlay and teaser for every article but this is a big slate and I wanted to give you all a bunch of different options!
The Picks: Knicks/Bulls/Celtics ML Parlay (+143 FanDuel Sportsbook) and Spurs/Knicks/Jazz/Celtics/76ers +5 Teaser (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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