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Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. Some metrics may seem simpler than others, but that does not mean that they are less informative. One of the more informative yet straightforward stats for a pitcher is their swinging-strike rate (SwStr%).
SwStr% is the percentage of pitches a hitter sees that they miss. It is not as directly applicable a metric as strikeout rate to fantasy production since strikeouts hold direct fantasy value as opposed to missed strikes in general. Further, pitchers can find success while pitching to contact, so missing bats is not essential to being a great pitcher. That being said, pitchers who can avoid contact are more likely to find overall success, especially in fantasy.
This week I will take a deep look into two pitchers with high SwStr% and two with low SwStr% to see what we can expect from them moving forward. In the coming weeks I will focus on the relative success certain pitchers have in avoiding contact with particular pitches, but this week will be an overview of each pitcher's body of work. As I have mentioned in previous articles, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs, but will choose to analyze more under-the-radar or less-obvious players to give readers the most useful insight. Let's find how these pitchers will fare in terms of missing bats for the rest of the season!
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Top SwStr% Pitchers
All stats current as of Sunday, May 23.
John Means, Baltimore Orioles
(4-0, 1.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 15.0% SwStr%)
This first player had a strong rookie season in 2019, stumbled in 2020, but has rebounded quite well so far this season. John Means has played the part of the Orioles ace of the staff perfectly, posting a pristine 1.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and a 15.0% SwStr% that is tied for ninth-highest among qualified pitchers. He has obviously pitched very well, but his current SwStr% is a good deal higher than his career 11.4% mark, so will he be able to keep it up as the season progresses?
The cool thing here is that Means has excelled at missing bats using an "old-school" style. He is not a flamethrower. His fastball has averaged 92.7 MPH, which is decent but not as fast as many other starters. Means has relied mostly on a fastball/changeup combination, and it has worked extremely well. Starting with his fastball, Means has slightly below-average velocity on the pitch, but has a spin rate that is in the 76th percentile of baseball. The more spin a fastball has the less "flat" it looks. The higher spin rate makes the pitch appear as though it is rising, making it more difficult to hit. As such, Means has been able to locate the pitch in the top of the zone consistently while avoiding contact. His 9.5% SwStr% with the pitch is a pretty decent mark for a fastball.
Data from baseballsavant.com
The real weapon, however, has been the changeup. Means has been able to keep the pitch out of the middle of the zone and throws it about nine MPH slower than his fastball. Means' changeup is so deceptive because it does not drop as much as other pitcher's changeups, so it comes in looking like a slow fastball. His changeup has experienced 7.1 inches of fewer vertical drop compared to the rest of the league, which is 24% less than average. If you don't believe in the physics of the pitch, the 25.1% SwStr% should tell you all you need.
The O's have had few bright spots overall this season, but Means has certainly been one of them. He has done a great job of missing bats, which is key when pitching your home games at Camden Yards. He has been a huge fantasy asset so far this season and there is no reason to think he won't continue to pitch well with his fastball/changeup combo.
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
(6-1, 3.04 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 14.0% SwStr%)
It wouldn't be a complete season at RotoBaller if I didn't write at least one article about Julio Urias. The 24-year-old has been surrounded by fantasy buzz since 2016, but hadn't gotten the chance to slot in as a full-time starter until last season. He has reprised that role this season and has done a great job once again, going 6-1 with a 3.04 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 14.0% SwStr%. Let's take a further look into Urias' advanced metrics to see why he is such a fantasy asset.
Urias is not just an SwStr% stud. He is pretty much at the top of most Statcast fields. He avoids hard contact, has great expected stats across the board, gets a ton of spin on his pitches, and gets hitters to chase frequently. Taking a closer look at his pitch mix, Urias uses a fastball (50.3% usage), and curveball (33.2% usage), and a changeup (15.8% usage). Each pitch has great movement and can lead to missed bats; his SwStr% on the pitches are 11.0%, 15.0%, and 21.8%, respectively.
Data from baseballsavant.com
There isn't much to analyze here; Urias is a great pitcher and a great fantasy pitcher. He may not seem like an obvious choice given the other star pitchers in the Dodgers rotation, but Urias has continuously found success throughout his young career. With various rotation injuries and his current performance, it seems like Urias has cemented himself into the team's rotation and fantasy managers' as well.
Bottom SwStr% Pitchers
All stats current as of Sunday, May 23.
Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers
(3-3, 3.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.1% SwStr%)
Fantasy managers in dynasty leagues were aware of Casey Mize well before this season, but most fantasy managers know his name now. The 24-year-old had a poor first showing last season, but has compiled a solid 3.42 ERA and 1.19 WHIP to start this season. One of his not-so-stellar stats is his 9.1% SwStr%, which is seventh-lowest among qualified pitchers. Can Mize continue to allow so much contact and maintain his success?
The interesting thing is that Mize's pitch arsenal seems like it would lend itself to some more missed bats. He throws five pitches, including a fastball with above-average velocity. However, most of his pitches don't have a ton of spin on them, which makes them less deceptive. Mize's highest SwStr% by pitch is 12.3% for his curveball, his least thrown pitch. The next highest is his four-seam fastball at 11.8%, which is good for a fastball but not a good sign for the effectiveness of his off-speed and secondary pitches.
Mize also may not be missing many bats due to his location. His four-seamer has been left in the middle of the plate and his slider, sinker, and split-finger have been left in the upper half of the zone. Pitchers with overpowering stuff can miss on location and still avoid contact, but Mize will need to locate his pitches better in order to generate more swings and misses.
Data from baseballsavant.com
Mize has found success overall to this point, but has done so without missing bats. His pitches aren't eye-popping, but the main issue has been his relatively poor pitch location. His 4.76 SIERA supports the notion that his current pitch location may pose an issue beyond his SwStr%. If he continues to leave his pitches up in the zone, the rest of his numbers may start to suffer. As such, I would consider Mize a sell-high candidate in single-season leagues while his peripheral numbers still look appealing.
Aaron Civale, Cleveland Indians
(6-1, 3.30 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.6% SwStr%)
Our final pitcher is one who has been a big fantasy surprise this season. Aaron Civale has been one of Cleveland's top starters this season, posting a 6-1 record with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Like Mize, he has found success without missing many bats with a 9.6% SwStr%. Can fantasy managers trust that he can continue to be successful?
Fortunately, signs point to yes. Civale does not throw hard. His four-seam fastball's velocity is in the 13th percent of baseball. That being said, he has done all of the things necessary to pitch well without overpowering stuff. First, he throws six different pitches, including four different types of fastballs. He mixes them all well, having thrown each pitch type at least 10% throughout the season so far. He also has above-average spin on his pitches. The combination of his massive pitch arsenal and pitch movement has allowed him to keep hitters off-balance enough to avoid damaging contact. Finally, he has located all of his pitches pretty well, unlike Mize. Civale's 4.25 SIERA suggests that his batted-ball profile may not be as good as his ERA suggests, but nothing glaring stands out to me with the contact he has given up and he his above-average expected stats support the notion that his success and pitching style are sustainable.
Data from baseballsavant.com
While pitchers who pitch to contact may not make for the most exciting fantasy pitchers, they are certainly valuable and can offer consistent output. Civale has provided great fantasy value for managers to this point, and it looks as though he can likely continue to do so despite a low SwStr%. I could understand fantasy managers attempting to shop Civale around for a great return, but think that he has plenty of value left to provide given how he has pitched to this point.
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