January 12, 2021

Third baseman/outfielder J.D. Davis took a step back in 2020. In what was expected to be a breakout season, Davis posted just a .247 batting average to go with six home runs and 19 RBI in 190 at-bats. Extrapolated over the course of a full 162-game season, Davis' production only equated to a 16 HR, 50 RBI campaign. Davis' power struggles resulted from decreased line drive and fly ball rates, a drop in overall barrel rate, a huge overall launch angle dip to 3.3 degrees down from 10.6 degrees in 2019, and a groundball rate that rose to 56.3% from 47% in 2019. Notably, Davis posted an elite exit velocity of 96.1 mph on FB/LD, which was in the top-20 in all of MLB for qualified batters. While this suggests a 2021 HR rebound, his groundball tendencies, if not addressed, could cap such positive regression. Davis' lower batting average in 2020 resulted from a much lower contact rate outside the zone and continued issues with the breaking ball, hitting only .150 against such offerings. Looking to 2021, Davis should see a rebound in HR totals, though expectations should be tempered due to GB%. Based on his other 2020 hitting metrics, Davis should also see positive regression in batting average, particularly if he can get his contact rate outside the zone closer to his career average. That said, Davis will remain more valuable in on-base-percentage formats where he maintained solid on-base skills in 2020 behind a 13.5% walk rate (up from 8.4% in 2019). With a current 214 ADP, Davis can provide managers with boring but solid returns in the later rounds of drafts. Managers can reasonably expect around 20-22 HR, 60-70 RBI, and an average close to .270 from the Mets regular third baseman.--Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller