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TALLADEGA TIME Y'ALL.
After an eventful pair of races at the track on Saturday in the lower series that saw maybe a little less carnage than expected but still featured some big wrecks in the closing laps that shook up the finishing order, Sunday's Cup Series races ends the weekend. And as always at 'Dega: Expect the unexpected
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)": @juscarts.
NASCAR DFS Research for YellaWood 500
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Top Fantasy Values At Talladega
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. Basically, which drivers are projected to score the most fantasy points relative to their price. This can help you figure out how to maximize your projected fantasy points.
Looking at projected value on DraftKings and potential value plays, we see:
"Huh," you might be thinking if you're new to NASCAR. "Why are we looking at the cheapest drivers?"
Because at superspeedways, anything can happen. The engine package and reliance on drafting keeps a lot of guys on the lead lap who'd usually finish 10 laps down. The pack racing creates big accidents that allow seemingly random drivers to finish high.
Instead of addressing the individual drivers here -- aside from this brief mention of Justin Haley, who has been the best superspeedway finisher in Xfinity this year and should keep that Spire 77 car running smoothly -- let's just look at some recent Talladega results.
In June, things weren't super chaotic, so the best finish by a true backmarker team -- everyone priced below the Front Row cars on the chart above -- was Brendan Gaughan in 21st, then Quin Houff in 27th.
But last Fall, Landon Cassill put the 00 in 14th place. Corey LaJoie got a top 10 in the 32. Ross Chastain piloted a Premium car to 12th. You still had poor finishes for the Rick Ware cars -- 35th and 40th -- but got solid production from other bad teams.
My advice, then? Don't be afraid to play Haley or Joey Gase or Quin Houff, but still mostly avoid the Rick Ware cars. They ain't good.
Talladega Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Here are the Talladega ratings for the top FanDuel drivers this week:
The obvious thing that stands out here: how much worse Truex runs here than the other drivers priced at 10K or above.
Both DFS sites have priced him down this weekend to account for that, though, making him a less bad play than he otherwise might be. But still, Truex and Talladega are a bad combination.
In 2015, Truex was fifth in the Spring and then seventh in the Fall. Since then, his best finish at the track is 13th, which was the next race here. In the past eight visits here, his best finish is 20th and he's led just 17 laps. This is not the place for Truex. That should worry you. I know superspeedways rely a lot on luck and that luck's impossible to predict, but *waves hand at Truex's Racing Reference Talladega page* come on, we can't trust Truex.
Meanwhile, you should boost Joey Logano a bit in your head for this one.
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Other Interesting Notes!
Here are some other things I found via the Research Station that I think y'all should know:
- Watch out for Hendrick Motorsports. Aside from Chase Elliott, none of their drivers are priced super high, but Jimmie Johnson, William Byron, and Alex Bowman all have high driver ratings on superspeedways.
- One driver I didn't talk about earlier in terms of value but want to now: John Hunter Nemechek, who has an 80.7 driver rating on superspeedways. Huge sleeper play this week.
- Same for his Front Row teammate Michael McDowell, who has a 17.6 average finish at superspeedways. Not the same threat as Nemechek, but still a nice play.
- Kevin Harvick's superspeedway driver rating is 32 percent below his average.
- Also, not in the Research Station, but a reminder that Justin Haley has three superspeedway wins this year in Xfinity, including two here. He also won a shortened Cup race at Daytona last year. Love him as a super value play.
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