RADIO
Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for August 25thnd including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, core 4, stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Tuesday, August 25th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/25
- Boston Bruins (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-110)
- Vancouver Canucks (+177) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-210)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vegas | 12 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 19.5 |
| Vancouver | 9 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12.75 |
| Tampa Bay | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Boston | 14 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 9.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Boston | 8 | 9 |
| Tampa Bay | 20 | 6 |
| Vancouver | 6 | 7 |
| Vegas | 7 | 15 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: William Karlsson ($5,600 DK/ $5,500 FD)
Karlsson was reunited on the top line with Pacioretty and Stone and while he only had one shot during game 1, he was able to record an assist. With his price under 6k on DK, he allows you to get cheap exposure to the top line on the slate. He has recorded four points in four games and is one of the better cash game plays on this slate for this position.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Patrice Bergeron ($7,200 DK/ $7,500 FD)
- Brayden Point ($6,500 DK/ $7,800 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Max Pacioretty ($6,500 DK/ $7,600 FD)
Pacioretty is on a hot streak and is still under 7k on DK! He is averaging five shots per game over his last three games played and has recorded double-digit DK performances in all three of those games. With the Canucks pushing the pace of play, Pacioretty will only continue to see good opportunities and is viable in all formats.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- David Pastrnak ($7,600 DK/ $8,700 FD)
- Nikita Kucherov ($7,800 DK/ $8,200 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Alexander Edler ($5,100 DK / $4,300 FD)
The peripheral king is at a great price and could make for a great one-off play from the Canucks. He is averaging nine peripheral stats over his last two games played as he has taken seven shots on goal but has also recorded 11 blocked shots. He sees plenty of ice-time and while the goal-scoring upside is limited, his involvement on the defensive end can't be ignored. He is a great option for cash games and could even be a solid play for tournament lineups.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Victor Hedman ($5,400 DK/ $6,700 FD)
- Shea Theodore ($6,100 DK/ $6,200 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Robin Lehner ($8,200 DK/ $8,700 FD)
Lehner had a monster game 1 against Vancouver as he recorded a 26 save shutout performance and racked up 28.2 DK points. What's even more impressive is that Lehner has won six of his seven starts since the postseason began and is allowing only 2.14 goals per game to opponents. Lehner has the best floor on this slate and is a lock in cash games based on his consistency and overall chances of pulling out a win.
Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Charlie Coyle ($3,900 DK/ $4,800 FD)
- Paul Stastny ($3,600 DK/ $4,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Alex Tuch ($3,900 DK/ $4,600 FD)
- Ondrej Kase ($3,700 DK/ $3,700 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Zach Bogosian ($2,700 DK/ $3,500 FD)
- Erik Cernak ($3,200 DK/ $3,800 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Jaroslav Halak ($7,700 DK/ $7,800 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
With these slates being two-game slates, things will be a bit repetitive. The first games played out just like we anticipated with Vegas dominating the Canucks by a score of 5-0 while Boston edged out a close win over Tampa Bay by a score of 3-2. The top line for Vegas was able to generate two goals while the second line was able to generate one powerplay goal and one even-strength goal early on. The pricing is still favorable on DK which allows you to fit in their top two lines while still being able to sprinkle in pieces from the top lines in Boston and Tampa Bay.
Tampa and Boston was a highly contested and relatively close game as both teams had their stars contribute throughout the night. Hedman led the Lightning with two goals which in order for them to be successful in this series, he needs to remain active and continue to shoot the puck. The top Boston line was extremely productive as each forward recorded at least one point with two of them scoring goals (Pastrnak and Marchand). We should expect this series to be extremely competitive with both top lines being viable in tournaments and having somewhat decent ownership.
Top Stacks:
- LV1- Pacioretty, Karlsson, Stone
- BOS1- Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak
- TB1- Palat, Point, Kucherov
- LV2- Marchessault, Stastny, Smith
Value Stacks:
- LV3- Cousins, Roy, Tuch
- TB3- Goodrow, Gourdem Coleman
- BOS 2- DeBrusk, Krejci, Kase
- TB2- Killorn, Cirelli, Johnson
