RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Wednesday, August 19th, 2020 at 4:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/19
- Columbus Blue Jackets (+155) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-175)
- Carolina Hurricanes (+130) vs. Boston Bruins (-150)
- Arizona Coyotes (+170) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-200)
- Montreal Canadiens (+120) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-140)
- Vancouver Canucks (+125) vs. St. Louis Blues (-145)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vancouver | 9 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12.25 |
| Carolina | 6 | 6 | 19 | 11 | 6.5 |
| Colorado | 1 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 13.5 |
| Montreal | 2 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| Arizona | 13 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 9 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 13.25 |
| Columbus | 6 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 3.5 |
| St. Louis | 20 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 17.75 |
| Tampa Bay | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7.5 |
| Boston | 14 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 15.5 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
| Matchups | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 22 | 5 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 18 | 4 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 12 | 12 |
| Boston Bruins | 19 | 8 |
| Arizona Coyotes | 20 | 7 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 6 | 20 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 16 | 16 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 24 | 6 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 4 | 22 |
| St. Louis Blues | 8 | 14 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Nathan MacKinnon ($8,500 DK/ $8,800 FD)
No one has been more consistent from a fantasy perspective throughout the postseason than Nathan MacKinnon. He has scored at least one point in each postseason game so far and has scored double-digit points in seven straight games. When it comes to the matchup against the Coyotes, he has notched seven points in six games played while taking 19 shots on goal during that stretch. MacKinnon will be heavily owned in cash games and we can anticipate high ownership in tournaments as well. If you're making 3 lines, he could be worth a fade in at least one of them to have leverage on the field!
Other Top Center Plays:
- Nazem Kadri ($5,400 DK/ $5,800 FD)
- Patrice Bergeron ($7,300 DK/ $7,200 FD)
- Ryan O'Reilly ($5,200 DK/ $6,900 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Brad Marchand ($6,900 DK/ $8,100 FD)
Brad Marchand has really balled out against the Hurricanes this postseason. He has had double-digit DK performances in four straight games and has notched seven points in that four-game span. Marchand has really ramped it up from a shot perspective as he has averaged five shots per game over his last three games and has a goal in three straight games. With Boston controlling the line matching, we can assume Marchand will be put in a favorable matchup.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Mikko Rantanen ($7,200 DK/ $7,900 FD)
- David Perron ($5,800 DK/ $7,000 FD)
- Jaden Schwartz ($5,500 DK/ $5,900 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Dougie Hamilton ($6,500 DK / $5,800 FD)
The Canes have their backs against the wall and will need a great game out of Dougie Hamilton to keep their postseason hopes alive. Hamilton has been on a fantasy hot streak over his last three games as he has averaged 18.9 DK points per game during that stretch. From a peripheral stat standpoint, Hamilton has racked up 14 shots on goal and 11 blocked shots since the series against Boston began which is extremely solid from a defenseman. Hamilton is viable in all formats and serves as a good one-off play from Carolina as well.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Alex Pietrangelo ($6,400 DK/ $6,300 FD)
- Cale Makar ($6,000 DK/ $5,900 FD)
- Alexander Edler ($5,500 DK/ $4,600 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Carter Hart ($7,900 DK/ $8,500 FD)
Hart has come on really strong over his last two games played. He has stopped 54 shots and had back to back shutout performances which tell us this Flyers defense is really clamping down on the Canadiens offense while Hart is seeing the puck extremely well and is able to get in front of anything that is coming his way. With him having a solid price point on this slate, Hart is good to be rolled out in all formats.
Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Vincent Trocheck ($4,200 DK/ $4,700 FD)
- Derek Stepan ($4,000 DK/ $4,700 FD)
- Charlie Coyle ($3,900 DK/ $4,800 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Ondrej Kase ($4,100 DK/ $3,500 FD)
- Joonas Donskoi ($4,000 DK/ $3,700 FD)
- Justin Williams ($3,700 DK/ $4,000 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Erik Johnson ($4,400 DK/ $4,300 FD)
- Chris Tanev ($3,900 DK/ $4,100 FD)
- Jakob Chychrun ($3,700 DK/ $3,500 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Jake Allen ($7,600 DK/ $7,600 FD)
- Darcy Kuemper ($7,200 DK/ $7,400 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
Boston Bruins (L1, L2)
The Bruins surged back in game four from a 2-0 deficit to steal a win and is now one victory away from knocking the Canes out of the postseason. The top line of the Bruins got shuffled mid-game and Charlie Coyle joined Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand on the top line which really benefited the Bruins. This line produced a 68.42 corsi and generated a team-high of four high-danger scoring chances so we can anticipate this being a line pairing should David Pastrnak be announced out for game five. Right now, the Bruins are dialed in defensively which means the Canes could be susceptible to sloppy play which could lead to more scoring chances.
Colorado Avalanche (L1, L2, PP1)
The Avs have dominated the puck possession against the Coyotes while they have been the home team throughout the postseason. They have a 56 corsi in their two games where they were the home team and generated 59 scoring chances while they limited Arizona to just 41 scoring chances. The true top line of the Avs (MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog) has been reunited and has looked extremely good as they have an expected goals for average of 2.74 goals per 60 minutes of ice-time. Both the top line and the second line look viable once again as they look to close out the series.
Other Stacks that could be lower owned: STL (L1), CAR (L1)
