RADIO
Hey there, RotoBallers! Thanks for stopping by my PGA DFS strategy series that focuses on multi-entry GPP strategy for each specific golf tournament on the PGA Tour. If you haven't read any of my pieces yet, my name is Tommy Bell. I go by @BellRoto in the Twitter world, and I've been writing for RotoBaller since my college days back in 2013!
Our fantastic RotoBaller PGA team has pretty much every facet of golf DFS and betting covered, but this might one extra piece I can add to the mix to help put into words what I believe is the most profitable way to approach PGA DFS. That approach is simply max entering the multi-entry GPP tournaments. For context, I will be using DraftKings as my site of reference, and I will refer mainly to the $3 entry, 20-entry max tournament that they host each tournament. That being said, a lot of what I'll cover can be translated to use in lower or higher buy-in tournaments. It can also (with some tweaks) be used in a 50-entry or 150-entry max approach.
I understand everyone uses different lineup-building tools, and that's great! I'll be using our awesome lineup builder/optimizer tool here as reference. Each week I'll provide some reflection on last week's tournament, some generic thoughts on the upcoming approach to building multiple lineups, and lastly a quick peak at which players will make up my core for building GPP lineups this week. Let's get to it!
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Reflection: Last week's Travelers Championship
What a fun week it was at the Travelers Championship. Despite not coming out with any 6-of-6 lineups on Friday night thanks to Keegan Bradley, Scottie Scheffler, and Matthew NeSmith, I was able to just barely make money on the whole. My two 5-of-6 lineups performed pretty well through the weekend, and it ended up being the NeSmith build with Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Sergio Garcia, and Doc Redman that got me $20 all by itself. The others helped me to get $63 back on my $60 deposit. Not bad for what felt like a dead week on Friday. Not to mention that 28/1 outright bet on DJ had me pretty excited come Sunday evening!
I'm not sure there's a whole lot I would've changed in retrospect. It's easy to say I had way too much Brian Harman, but no one saw him losing 3.7 strokes putting, including a two-foot bogey putt on Friday. As we followers know, he had way too many birdie chances coming in on his second round, but the putter just wasn't there. Justin Thomas flat out stunk, and I wish I would've put more stock into DJ and Bryson instead of diversifying my portfolio with him, but other than that my evaluation of the studs was pretty sound. Then there's the Keegan decision... Ugh. I wish I could say that won't happen again in the future, but I'm sure it will.
Oh well! I think I executed pretty well, and if one of Bradley, Scheffler, or ESPECIALLY NeSmith had figured it out on Friday, I would've had a really nice sweat going on Sunday. That's all we can ask for, folks. Here's a look at how my initial optimizer run came out. Of course I did some tweaking after the fact to get to my final DK lineups.
Unfortunately, as of writing this, I accidentally exited out of my RB Optimizer tab before taking a screenshot of what that looked like. So, you may not get a screenshot next week. Maybe I'll try to find a way to capture the percentages on the DraftKings lineup page. We'll see. As always, if you have questions on my process from last week or otherwise, hit me up on Twitter @BellRoto!
Approach: Rocket Mortgage Classic
This was a fun build! And again, I apologize about forgetting to get a screenshot of the optimizer results for next week's article, but hopefully I can paint the picture with words.
The first big decision for Detroit this week is simple: Whether or not you're going to roster Bryson DeChambeau on DraftKings. It sounds like that answer will be "Yes" for well over 20% of the lineups in most multi-entry GPPs. Yikes...
Don't get me wrong. I'd LOVE to be a part of that number. I think there's a very, very good chance Bryson ends up winning this thing come Sunday afternoon. The chances he lands Top 3 with a massive amount of Birdies/Eagles is even better. But, that being said, there is a small chance that the iron game still isn't quite right, or he yanks his drives just a little bit during the back nine of one of his rounds, or his around-the-green game falls a part for a few holes. What I'm saying is, there's SO much potential reward in a fade. So that's what I'm going to do. To make myself feel better, I will be using some of my DJ winnings from last week to put a little juice on the DeChambeau 6/1 outright. I normally wouldn't touch that number, but at least I know if my DraftKings lineups die, I still have a glimmer of hope to make some cash with Bryson.
After I made that huge decision for my 20 lineups, the rest was super easy. I found the handful of guys in the upper-echelon of the DraftKings player pool that checked as many boxes as possible, and I did the same with the cheap, value bin options down in the bottom of the list. Then, as always, there were a few names in the middle of the pack that caught my eye as "Too Cheap" or "Major Upside", so I added them in too. Before I knew it, I was right around 15-17 players, and my percentages for player exposure just fell right into place.
After the first run, I had some percentages that varied too much from my comfort zone, mainly too much Chesson Hadley and Sebastian Munoz. So I added one more cheap guy to the pool to help fill their void, and I adjusted percentages a little bit, and BAM! I got a 17-man, 19-lineup result that looked pretty darn good. That's almost perfect for me, because then I can export those to DK and immediately go build my own favorite lineup from scratch without looking at those builds. Nine times out of ten, my favorite build isn't already there, and I now have 20 lineups. I go through and adjust one more time inside DK, and that's pretty much what I'll run with for the week barring any changes!
The handful of high-priced and low-priced "Staples" below should finalize the picture pretty well of how that all came together, and hopefully my explanation made sense too. But, if you still have questions, feel free to hit me up @BellRoto on Twitter or in the Premium RotoBaller Slack PGA Channel. I'll be around!
Staples Over $8.5K: Rocket Mortgage Classic
Tyrell Hatton: $10,700 - About 60%
After getting red hot and eventually winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational heading into the Covid 19 break, there's no way that Hatton continues his incredible run at the Top 10 in the world, right? Well, he almost completed quite possibly the strangest back-to-back win scenario in his third place finish at Harbour Town a couple of weeks ago, and he looked as good we could've hoped. Quietly at number 16 in the world right now, Hatton's precision with his irons and ability to get scorching hot with his putter warrants this inflated price tag in a very weak field.
Kevin Na: $9,100 - About 50%
One of the hottest putters on tour when he's right, Na got back to that point last week in Connecticut, gaining 5.6 strokes on the greens. He put the flaststick together with gained strokes in all other categories, and rode a great Sunday outing to a T5. If he can get that putter firing again early in Detroit, Na can run away with this thing in a hurry. If anyone can beat DeChambeau, it's someone who's hitting every putt from 15 feet and in.
Viktor Hovland: $10,000 - About 45%
I'm not sure there's much about Hovland's game that hasn't been said by my colleagues or me up to this point since the PGA Tour restarted. The kid is flat-out dynamite from tee to green. His around-the-green game has improved to the point where it's not a major weakness, and now we're just waiting on the putter to get figured out. I certainly don't want to be sitting on the sidelines when Hovland finally starts making his 7-10 foot birdie putts. Look out!
Staples Under $8.5K: Rocket Mortgage Classic
Tyler Duncan: $7,000 - About 55%
The Doc Redman price and betting bump could very well be Tyler Duncan in a couple of weeks. There may not be a more consistent approach game on tour right now, and he finished with a solid T32 despite losing 3.2 strokes on the greens last week. Duncan should have all the chances to use those deadly irons again this week, and $7,000 is just simply too cheap. At that price, you're hoping for a made cut to round out a lineup. We've already seen that T-Dunks can give a whole lot more than that.
Adam Hadwin: $8,200 - About 45%
One nice part to Hadwin's game is that you never have to worry about the putting. He almost always gains multiple strokes there, and it's the hot approach that you're going to need to come into play if he's going to contend in a tournament (See 5.4 and 6.8 SG: Approach in Top 5 finishes at Shriners and Safeway last fall). Detroit Country Club isn't going the frighten the Canadian in the slightest, and I think he could very easily be in the $9k range with names like Scheffler and Watson based on his past performances at these kind of tracks.
Erik Van Rooyen: $8,000 - About 45%
EVR showed a glimpse of his upside at Harbour Town, gaining strokes in all four categories en route to a T21 finish. If all is right with his game, we'll start to see that SG: Approach number tick up towards the 4-5 range. The off-the-tee numbers are always solid, and that should mean plenty of birdie chances for a really solid all-around mid-range play. I love me some Van Rooyen as a true lineup staple.
Will Gordon: $7,300 - About 40%
Gordon impressed me so much at the Travelers Championship last week, both with his numbers and his demeanor. He was a college standout at Vanderbilt and has all of the tools of a high-ceiling golfer on tour. After a rough Saturday, Gordon needed to come out on Sunday paired with Jon Rahm and move up to a Top 3 spot to claim a temporary status card, and he did it. The driver is long, we saw great putting, and he gets a much easier field this week. I expect the sudden success to rollover, at least for this the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
