PGA Betting Advice: Charles Schwab Challenge

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best head-to-head plays for the Charles Schwab Challenge

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-39-7), netting over 46 units of profit and a 67% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 18 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and three so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider

This week, the article got off to a late start and missed my typical window of releasing it by Monday night. Unfortunately, that caused a handful of the head-to-head plays that I had on tap to move against our favor, and I am not one who is going to release old lines and receive credit for the victory after the fact.

If the value is gone, the value is gone, and I'm always going to be completely transparent about how large of an edge we should be expecting on each bet. These articles are published to find long-term value, and I don't see the point in releasing condensed cards with minimal edges.

Instead of going down that road, I'd prefer to turn this week's edition into a hodgepodge of sorts, touching on different wagers throughout the industry that might be going under-the-radar. If you have any questions about a play that may have caught your eye, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Head-To-Head Selection

Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson +115

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

While this line has followed the trend of moving incorrectly against us so far this week, there is still a substantial enough edge to be had to make this worth a wager at even -135. If you have followed my cards over the years, you will realize that I don't typically lay this much juice on a head-to-play. I prefer to find underdog value when possible, and a head-to-head golf play that needs to yield a win rate of 57.4% to breakeven isn't generally the road I go down.

However, despite the somewhat substantial move up to this point of the week, I still believe we are nearly 30 points off from where the line should realistically be located. Part of the reason behind this has to do with Bubba Watson's inability to find success at Par-70 venues. When attaching a 70% weight to last year's statistics and 30% onto 2020, the American shows why that is the case by ranking outside the top-100 in the field in both par-three and par-four scoring.

His top-10 standing in par-five birdie or better percentage gets negated with only two longer holes to be had each round, and Watson's general lack of touch around the green is troubling for a golfer that ranks outside the top-100 in strokes gained approach.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I can't really point to anything other than failing to get my 'Vegas Report' article out in time. Numbers move quickly if you miss your window, and the actual premium selection that I did decide to go with yielded a larger edge to be had. I have no issues playing Russell Knox all the way up to -165, and I do believe that it isn't out of the realm of possibilities that we see him gravitate towards that territory before the week is over.

0.75 Units to Win 0.56

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First Round Leader

Denny McCarthy 150/1

If you have checked out my spreadsheet, you will see that Denny McCarthy isn't exactly grading out as someone thriving in the model. Inadequate approach and driving numbers have raised some concerns about what we should expect from the 27-year-old this weekend in Texas, but first-round leader bets are typically about finding a statistic that you like and ignoring all else.

We see a golfer surprise the community on day one to ascend to the top of the leaderboard all the time before eventually faltering over the next three days. The frequency this happens should tell us that most golfers are overpriced in actual win equity but often undervalued in a one-round setting.

McCarthy is an intriguing golfer to take a second look at for a few reasons. Ranked number one in the field in putting, the American gets a chance to perform on his best putting surface of Bentgrass and also has shown the ability to perform in gusty conditions throughout his career. When you add to that his top-10 ranking in birdie or better percentage and strength of scrambling, McCarthy checks many of the boxes you are hoping to find in a one-day boom-or-bust choice. Remember, an 80 is technically as good as a 70 is for us, and I'd prefer to target the volatility when we need a low round.

Top-20

Corey Conners 6/1

Corey Conners is beginning to get a little popular for my liking, but I consider 6/1 to be an extremely generous price on the Canadian. Conners has played Colonial Country Club twice in his career, posting a 31st place result in 2019 and an eighth-place showing in 2018.

Yes, this year's test is much more difficult than the previous fields the 66th-ranked player in the world had to endure to provide those past displays, but Conners is always a decent putter away from being competitive. Russell Knox at 6/1 is also worth a second look after finishing eighth, 20th and 24th in his past three attempts here, but I give a slight edge when it comes to value to Conners for this spot.

Last Recorded Results (Arnold Palmer)

2-1-0 (+0.74 Units)

We lowered our exposure on all three plays last weekend but were able to escape out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a 2-1 record. It will be impossible to know if we could have gotten the job done without a fortunate break on our Tony Finau over Jason Day matchup, which saw the Aussie withdraw during the second round, but a little luck has never hurt anyone.

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

14-9-0 (+6.41 Units)

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-4-1)

+5.09 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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