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Michael Florio explains the effect that losing WR DeAndre Hopkins could have on Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson in fantasy football. Should fantasy owners be scared to draft him at QB or is he still a solid ADP value?
From the moment Deshaun Watson stepped onto the football field he was an absolute star. He led the Clemson Tigers to back-to-back college football championships, including winning it in 2016. He was then a first-round pick in the NFL Draft and set the world on fire when he got the opportunity to start. An ACL injury limited him to just six games in his rookie season, but he did score 24.12 fantasy PPG as a rookie, leading all QBs. He hasn’t slowed down since, finishing each of the last two seasons as a top-four fantasy QB. He’s scored over 20 fantasy PPG in every season he’s been in the league.
Watson has seemed destined for stardom and a nice Hall of Fame jacket since the minute the masses have seen him step on the football field. He was even better on the fantasy gridiron. Just a month ago, Watson was viewed as the fantasy QB3, the safest choice with a lot of upside after Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. But then Bill O’Brien happened. BOB sent Watson’s top weapon in DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals for David Johnson and draft picks. Suddenly the league’s top QB-WR tandem was broken up. Imagine Michael Jordan without Scottie Pippen. Batman without Robin, Eminem without Dr. Dre, Will Smith without Carlton Banks or Michael Scott without Dwight Schrute. It just wouldn’t be the same, right? That is the concern for Watson in fantasy football this season.
While it is fine to be scared about Watson without Hopkins, the old adage still holds true here: every player has a price. And Watson is not going to suddenly fall to the later rounds of your draft, but even if he slides a round or two, that makes him a value. We all know Watson is going to miss Hopkins. But the real question should be, how much of an impact will the loss have on his fantasy value?
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A Different Dynamic
Watson threw for 3,852 passing yards and 26 touchdowns in 2019. Of those, 1,165 yards and seven touchdowns went to Hopkins. That is 30 percent of his passing yards and 27 percent of his touchdown passes to a player that is no longer there. Add in that Watson’s numbers were already trending down and you start to see why people are worried. In 2018, Watson threw for more yards (4,165) and the same amount of touchdowns (26). The concern is now without Hopkins those numbers will continue to trend down.
Watson is no longer the QB3 in fantasy drafts. That doesn’t mean he no longer deserves to be a top-five or six QB off the board. The question that many have is what should we expect the Texans offense to look like this season? And I think we saw signs of it last season. In 2019, Watson became more of a down the field thrower than he was in 2018. He showed this ability in his set the world on fire rookie campaign, but it was cut too short to really see it in full effect.
Last season, Watson averaged 8.9 air yards per pass, which ranked seventh among all QBs (min. 100 attempts). He also completed 31 passes of 20+ air yards, which put him in a tie for the fourth-most in the league. To put that into perspective though, Jameis Winston led the league with 40, and no one else had more than 32. So Watson was right there with the best in the league. He attempted 5.1 passes of 20+ air yards per game in 2019, compared to just 3.6 in 2019.
Throwing the ball down the field will likely be a staple for Watson this season given that his top two receivers are Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller V. Cooks is coming off of a very down 2019 campaign due to concussion complications, but he still showed to be a legit deep threat. After averaging at least 96 air yards per game in the four prior seasons, Cooks averaged just 74 air yards per game in 2019, but that was more so because his targets decreased, and not because of the way he was used changed. He was still seeing 14.4 air yards per target, which is on par with his previous four seasons.
As you can see about, courtesy of RotoViz, Fuller means a lot to Watson's fantasy production. Fuller remains one of the best field stretchers in the game, as long as he is not on a stretcher himself (bad injury pun?). He’s averaged at least 94 air yards per game in three of the last four seasons and at least 14.5 air yards per target in each of those seasons. Both Fuller and Cooks were in the top 15 of wideouts in terms of air yards per target last season. Kenny Stills may find himself on the roster bubble, but for now he provides insurance in case Cooks or Fuller misses time. Last year, Stills averaged 11.1 air yards per target. Last season Watson completed 40.8 percent of his passes that traveled at least 20 air yards. That ranked tied for fifth-best in the NFL with Russell Wilson of QBs with at least 40 attempts.
Many are expecting the efficiency of the Texans offense to take a hit. The deep ball is the way to combat that. We may see the Texans offense stall out more than we did last year, but a long touchdown is the best way to erase that in fantasy as you can pick up a large number of points in chunks. That is how I view the Texans offense this season. Think of the Bucs offense from last season. Were they unstoppable? Far from it. But, they could strike in a big way very quickly. Last season, Jameis Winston led the NFL with 111 attempts of 20+ air yards. He picked up 1,392 yards and nine touchdowns on those passes. Watson finished with just 76 attempts of 20+ air yards, picking up 1,089 yards and seven scores on those. I would expect his attempts on these passes to increase this year, which will lead to more yards and touchdowns as well.
Another reason why those field stretchers are so vital is that it opens things up near the line of scrimmage. Last year, the Texans used DeAndre Hopkins in the slot more than ever. That led to him averaging just 10.37 air yards per target. And when your top receiver is staying near the line of scrimmage more, the defense is not being stretched down the field as much. That means fewer dump-off opportunities to backs or short yard passes to tight ends or slot receivers. That leads to fewer yards after the catch.
Last season, Watson had 57.3 percent of his passing yards come through the air, the eighth-most in the NFL (min. 200 attempts). That means that just 42.5 percent of his passing yards came after the catch. That number should increase if there is a larger emphasis on throwing the ball deep. Additionally, with two burners like Cooks and Fuller, defenses will have to have safeties deep. This again means more openings near the line of scrimmage, which should lead to more rushing production for Watson.
The X-Factor
Watson rushed less last season than in 2018 and was the least efficient we have ever seen. He averaged just 5.5 attempts per game. Even worse, his 27.5 rushing yards per game were a career-low. The trade-off was he scored a career-high seven rushing touchdowns. Even if Watson was to run just one more time per game in 2020, that would equate to about 80 additional rushing yards. Add in that he could be a more efficient runner than ever due to the fact that the defenses have to focus on his down the field weapons now.
It is possible for Watson to get back into the range of 550 rushing yards, which he did in 2018. That would be about 140 more rushing yards than last season. That may not sound like a whole lot, but 140 rushing yards equates to 350 passing yards. So if Watson’s passing production was to fall off, the rushing numbers should save him. Unless you think he is going to throw for less than 3,500 yards this season.
Let’s also not forget the Texans got back David Johnson for Hopkins. There is no way Johnson can bring what Hopkins did to the passing game, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make it better. As I said earlier, having fewer defenders near the line of scrimmage opens things up for dump-off opportunities. Johnson averaged 7.87 receiving yards per target last season, the most since his rookie season. In fact, 2018 is the only season he averaged less than 7.3 receiving yards per target, and I am more willing to blame that on Josh Rosen than Johnson.
Last season, Duke Johnson averaged just 6.6 yards per target, while Carlos Hyde was at 2.63. Last year the backs made the Texans offense predictable. When Hyde was on the field you knew he was not a threat to be a receiver. He had 16 targets and just 10 catches all year. And when Duke was on the field, you knew they were likely passing. He averaged just 5.2 carries per game last year.
David Johnson may be a shell of himself, but he is still easily the best three-down back option of this group. Last season, Watson averaged just 4.7 passes per game to RBs, which ranked 40th among all QBs (there are just 32 starters). He has never averaged more than five passes per game to RBs. I think we see him utilize the running back more in the passing game this season, which should help him get more yards after the catch.
How to Value Watson in Fantasy
The loss of Hopkins will greatly be felt on Watson. But we also have to stop treating Watson like he was a product of Hopkins. He is still one of the best QBs in the NFL and while production may not come as easily as it did with one of the best receivers in football, he still has tools around him to produce in fantasy. My anticipation is that we see a different Watson than we have in recent seasons. More shots down the field, paired with more room to run for Watson and more of an ability to dump the ball off to the RB will still lead to plenty of fantasy production.
The loss of Hopkins may hurt Watson’s ceiling. And I totally understand why, because Hopkins, like Watson, has the ability to just take over and dominate games. That leads to easy fantasy production for Watson. But still, I think the ceiling remains on a weekly basis. If he connects with Cooks or Fuller (or both) we can quickly see him finish a week with a high yardage and TD total. Where I think it impacts Watson the most is on a consistency basis. If you are relying on the deep ball for production, there will be weeks where they struggle to connect and the fantasy production will suffer. But, even this is nothing new for Watson. Last year Watson played in 15 games. He finished as a top-five QB in seven of them, and outside the top 10 in the other eight. He was already volatile, but I think that just becomes even more extreme this season. Below is his five year fantasy summary, courtesy of RotoViz.
The loss of Hopkins, paired with moves made by other teams, has Watson firmly out of the QB3 discussion for me. But Watson should live in the QB4-QB7 range for me with Wilson, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. Those are the last of the QBs that are both mobile and proven. Lowering Watson any further feels like an overreaction to me.
Why does it feel like an overreaction? Because we may see Watson producing in a way we have never seen before. But the beautiful part of fantasy football is it does not matter how you produce, as long as you score fantasy points. And that is something Watson has always done. In fact, his lowest 16-game pace is 331.7 fantasy points, which he scored in 2018. That would have made him the QB3 last season. Even if that takes a hit, there were just five QBs last season who scored over 290 fantasy points. Either Watson is going to fall off a cliff, or he deserves to once again be a top-seven QB off the board.
Do not take him as the QB3 anymore, but at the same time, do not worry about Watson too much in fantasy football.
