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Collin Hulbert analyzes the current dynasty fantasy football value of free-agent running backs Melvin Gordon and Derrick Henry. Are these RBs to buy, sell, or hold ahead of the 2020 NFL Draft?
Derrick Henry turns 27 next January, while Melvin Gordon turns 27 in April. That’s where we need to start when we’re discussing their value in a dynasty format.
For running backs, you can chart their production on a line graph and you’ll typically get a production distribution similar to a mountain. With most, they start out fast, ascending quickly, peaking for a couple of years, and then quickly descending. With these two, we need to first identify where they are on that line graph.
For the sake of the added variance, I am focusing on rushing yards per game and not total yards. I am also listing touches per game for the best way to track the wear on a player throughout his career. First, let’s take a look at Derrick Henry.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Henry is the more valuable asset here, based on production, age, mileage, and durability. I think there’s a good chance he stays with Tennessee, but he’s about a year younger than Gordon and he’s coming off a career year. Henry is interesting because both his volume and production have gone up massively over his time in the league.
Henry’s volume in the NFL by touches: 123, 187, 230, 321
Henry’s production by YPC: 4.5, 4.2, 4.9, 5.1
Henry’s Rushing YPG: 33, 47, 66, 103
It’s easy to look at spreadsheets of NFL running backs over the years and say, “running backs hit the cliff at age 27 or 28.” Pro Football Reference cites 57% of running backs have worse seasons after age 27 than their previous season. Then again, these guys aren’t all the same, their situations aren’t the same, and they aren’t all built the same. Regardless, I tend to trust the historic numbers and if someone proves me wrong by having success past age 27, I’ll take that loss knowing I’ll be right if I make that decision six out of 10 times.
Derrick Henry has been destroying defenses since high school. You can say he’s had a lot of mileage, but the Titans were careful to work him into his current usage by limiting him in his first three seasons. Part of it was the perceived value of Dion Lewis, a coveted third-down back coming off a solid season with the Patriots. However, more of it was caution by the Titans and difficulty effectively working him into the offense with Mariota. Henry’s contract is now up, which begs the question, should the Titans re-sign him? After the season he just had, it would be very difficult to say no.
I think the Titans will re-sign him, but if I were in their front office, I would try to limit the contract to a front-loaded, short deal. Ideally, a two-year or possibly three-year contract around 11-14 million per year would make sense. I don’t have much insight into what the current likelihood of Henry re-signing is, but if he stays with the Titans, it’s going to be a better scenario than 90% of the other potential suitors out there.
Impact in Dynasty
From a dynasty perspective, Henry is still valuable and for dynasty purposes, should be a fringe top-10 running back in valuations. If Tannehill, Conklin, and Henry all sign new deals with the Titans, Henry is probably close to the seventh-most valuable running back. If Henry leaves the Titans, he’s likely leaving to sign a deal with more guaranteed money and probably more years. If Henry leaves, his value will really fluctuate based on where he goes. He could be anywhere from RB #7 to RB #12. In either case, Henry still has the juice, for now. If you have him or acquire him this offseason and don’t like the prospective offensive line and offensive system he goes to, sell him before the start of the season.
Melvin Gordon
Gordon has had a very challenging career to analyze thus far. He’s had five minor injuries in five different places since entering the NFL and has missed nine games due to injury over a span of five seasons. He’s also had an offensive line of varying talent over that period, ranking in the bottom ten for the majority of his time in the league. To me, Gordon had been undervalued as a talent during his time with the Chargers.
Gordon’s volume in the NFL by touches: 217, 295, 342, 225, 204
Gordon’s production by YPC: 3.5, 3.9, 3.9, 5.1, 3.8
Gordon’s Rushing YPG: 46, 77, 69, 73, 51
What’s startling about this is the amount of touch disparity between Henry and Gordon. Gordon has 1,283 touches in five seasons (256 per year). Henry has 861 touches over four seasons (215 per year). It’s worth noting Austin Ekeler has taken a significant number of shares over the past two seasons and Gordon has missed eight games over this two-year span. With that considered, Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded Gordon as an 86 in 2018 and just a 66 in 2019. According to the NFL’s Player Profiler, Gordon evaded tackles at a rate of 6.6 per game in 2018 (#6 in the NFL) and only 4.1 per game in 2019 (#22 in the NFL). Line woes aside, the Chargers have had a bottom-ten offensive line over the past two seasons, so the line isn’t the reason for this drop. Gordon rushed for 5.1 YPC in 2018 and just 3.8 in 2019. The evidence is clear. Melvin Gordon appears to be on the back nine of his career.
I expect the Chargers will move on from Gordon in 2020 because, well, they should have internet access and a reasonable amount of common sense. In the likely scenario Gordon leaves, he still offers upside for potential suitors, but the question is, how much juice does he have left? If Gordon wants to get money and have the best situation to maximize his talents, he’ll move on to a team with a better offensive line.
Impact in Dynasty
From a dynasty standpoint, I would rank Gordon somewhere between 11 and 23. It’s not a bold ranking, but consider how little we know about his future situation and how he’s already on the back end of his career. Henry still has juice, from what we saw in 2019. Gordon is losing it. The fall for running backs in dynasty is often swift and harsh. Gordon would be amazing in a handful of offenses going forward, but his mileage is already quite considerable. I would expect he could have one more above-average season as a feature back and two to three more decent seasons in a timeshare.
If you can sell him for top-12 value right now, it’s probably a wise move. Gordon will likely follow the money, as he should, but the places who can afford to pay running backs big money typically have a lot of cap room because they often don’t invest it where they should be investing it; the offensive line. Gordon has two options here. He can chase the money and sacrifice production, or he can take the best situation available and maximize his production. If you’re bullish on Gordon, you’d better hope he goes with option two.
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