RADIO
Hopefully, you’ve all enjoyed a strong first two months of the fantasy baseball season and are heading into June with a full head of steam. Whether you're at the top and looking to strengthen your pitching ranks or in the lower half and seeking out a spark, we've got you covered.
If you want to chat more about additional arms/bats/whatever, you can find me on Twitter @NMariano53 and ask any follow-up questions.
We're using Yahoo ownership levels and cutting things off around 30% this week. Here are my starting pitcher waiver wire targets for Week 9.
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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets
Vince Velasquez (PHI, SP) - 30% owned
Velasquez rebounded from a rough outing last week by taking a shutout into the sixth inning on Monday, though his bullpen would blow the lead and his win. Still, we have to respect how VV has 70 strikeouts in just 57 ⅓ innings alongside some lovely peripherals. His 3.50 SIERA is rooted in the 11.2% swinging-strike rate and Velasquez bringing his walk rate down from 10.8% in ‘17 to 8.5% thus far. He’s also inducing worse contact (hard-hit rate down nine percentage points, increased pop-up rate over the 10% mark and a fly-ball rate up nearly 10 percentage points) and yet his .317 BABIP is higher than last year’s .303 mark. I’m buying the skills underneath but know full well the volatility that I’m inviting into my life by rostering him. If for nothing else, he’ll get a nice date against the Giants at AT&T Park on June 2 for his next outing.
Nick Kingham (PIT, SP) - 22% owned
Kingham stumbled in his return to the bigs on Tuesday, allowing three runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out just four Cubs in the eventual 8-6 defeat. That said, he still has an awesome 25 punchouts to just four walks through four starts in the bigs and has been dominant at Triple-A as well, going 2-1 with 30 strikeouts and a 2.12 ERA/1.11 WHIP across six starts. He’s currently lined up to face the Cardinals in St. Louis on June 3 and remains a strong pickup in 12-teamers as long as he’s active.
Ervin Santana (MIN, SP) - 21% owned
This is more of a brief PSA: Santana’s fastball sat at 88-89 mph during his second rehab start, which is rough considering he’s usually around 93 mph. I’m undoubtedly willing to give him some leash in just his second outing following surgery on his right middle finger, but it’s something to watch.
Marco Gonzales (SEA, SP) - 19% owned
Gonzales has made three straight starts without allowing an earned run and now has a 2.41 ERA/1.26 WHIP over the last 30 days. This has rejuvenated his ownership lately but I feel the need to point out his 12-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a 4.53 SIERA over that span. After being all too hittable and opening the season with a .405 BABIP, he's posted a .204 BABIP over these last three trips to the hill. He has admittedly dialed down the liners surrendered and cut his hard-hit rate down from a horrid 39% in those first eight outings down to 16.7% over the last three starts, but without any real change in his arsenal or noticeable uptick in whiffs then I'm likely out. I understand the adding craze, but I'll let someone else take the chance on his tightrope command act.
Shane Bieber (CLE, SP) - 16% owned
Bieber and his freakishly-good 61-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio from the Minors will get a chance at big-league hitters on Thursday in Minnesota, which will also be his 23rd birthday! Ever the equal-opportunity dominator, Bieber has shut down Double- and Triple-A opponents with an ERA below 1.25 with five starts at each respective level this season. And the icing on the cake is how he "completed" a rain-shortened no-hitter in his last outing, so he's as ready as possible. With Adam Plutko being optioned on Tuesday and the Super Two deadline in the past, Bieber could take this rotation spot and potentially run with it. Don't let that sit on the wire for someone else.
Michael Kopech (CWS, SP) - 13% owned
I honestly don’t think Kopech’s first taste of the Majors is going to go that well -- his command just isn’t there -- but I do think he’ll fetch a pretty penny at the market when the promotion hype comes to be. I’d stash him if I had a spot for doing so simply in order to package him to an owner who’s a sucker for the shiny new toy.
Brent Suter (MIL, SP/RP) - 10% owned
On the surface, Suter looks like he could be the Zach Davies of 2018. He’s doing enough to win, but it’s mostly via the bare minimum. He has yet to make it through six full innings and his ratios really aren’t great at first blush, but his 3.98 xFIP and 4.09 SIERA will get the job done and his mere 4.8% walk rate really helps minimize damage. It doesn’t hurt that the Brew Crew are hanging Ws left and right and Suter’s next start comes on the road against the White Sox as the 28-year-old seeks out his fifth win in his last six appearances.
Ryan Yarbrough (TB, SP/RP) - 9% owned
Yarbrough has been a blossoming piece of Tampa Bay’s new twist on pitching, as the young arm has tallied three victories with a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the past month. His overall 23% soft-contact rate is a promising indicator of his success being genuine, but the 6.8% swinging-strike rate really needs to come up. Ever the optimist, I see the 14% swinging-strike rate from last season at Triple-A (let alone the great control) and I think there's some middle ground to be reached here. An ERA in the mid-to-high threes is easily attainable here throughout the season.
Frankie Montas (OAK, RP*) - 1% owned
Even though Yahoo only has him listed as a reliever, Montas looked like a full-fledged starter on Sunday when he struck out seven D-backs and allowed just one run over six innings in his ‘18 MLB debut. The once-buzzy prospect had his electric heater up around 96 mph and Arizona hitters were averaging below 80 mph on all exit velocities against him (which is damn good for Montas). He’ll take on the Royals in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium on June 1, with the Royals standing as one of 11 squads with a team wOBA below .295 over the last two weeks. I'd never start him against above-average teams out of the gate, but plus matchups give him some shine.
Nathan Eovaldi (TB, SP) - 1% owned
Those desperate for an AL-only arm may want to see what the once-useful Eovaldi has left in the tank after two elbow surgeries have sidelined him in recent years. His most recent 2016 campaign was marred by homers while pitching at Yankee Stadium, as he suddenly gave up much louder contact and saw his HR/FB rate nearly triple compared to when he compiled a 14-3 record in 2015. Perhaps this whole "opening pitcher" throwing hitters off balance before Eovaldi steps in with his fastball/splitter/slider combo, but let's keep expectations tempered.
Shelby Miller (ARI, SP) - 1% owned
Don’t worry National Leaguers, we won’t leave you stranded in the deep waters alone! Miller had been the butt of many jokes before requiring Tommy John surgery last year but he looked good in his first rehab start of 2018 with High-A Visalia. He threw 52 of his 65 pitches for strikes en route to eight strikeouts and just one run over five solid innings. Most of you can simply file the name away for later, but some may want to pounce on him before he gets a chance to show his stuff in the suddenly pitcher-friendly Chase Field come mid-June.
