RADIO
Any of us that love the sport of golf have a course that is our favorite to play. It can be our favorite course for a variety of different reasons...maybe it’s because we like the way the greens roll or it’s where we shot our lowest round ever. Perhaps the course sets up well for our ball flight or we like the type of sand in the bunkers. Maybe we can’t quite put our finger on why we like it, but we just feel confident when we play there. The pros on the PGA TOUR are world class golfers. They can play great anywhere, but they are like us in at least one way...they have favorite courses too.
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks), 7,435 yards, Par 72
Greg Norman designed this course in 2010 with consultation help from Sergio Garcia. The course embraces the unique Texas landscape with a naturalistic feel that includes strands of oak trees, rock, and brush. Many of the holes offer players multiple routes to the green.
The Horse
Charley Hoffman - DraftKings - $10,900 & FanDuel - $11,200
Golf fans don't often use the word 'elite' and Charley Hoffman in the same sentence. We see Hoffman pop up on leaderboards from time to time and know that he is a very solid PGA player, but he isn't known to be dominant. However, when we take a closer look at Hoffman's course history at the TPC San Antonio, the word 'elite' comes to mind.
Hoffman won the Valero Texas Open in 2016 by one shot over Patrick Reed. The win was not a one-hit wonder, but rather the culmination of years of impressive play in San Antonio. Prior to the win in '16, Hoffman notched a T-11 in 2015, another T-11 in 2014, a T-3 in 2013, and a T-13 in 2012. Including his disappointing T-40 finish last year, Hoffman owns a 70.91 scoring average over his last 24 rounds at the Par 72 TPC San Antonio.
In addition to the tremendous history he has at this course, Hoffman is entering this week's tournament in excellent form. Over the past month, he has played extremely well against stiff competition. Hoffman finished T-14 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T-12 at The Masters, and T-23 at the RBC Heritage last week. Thanks to his great course history and excellent recent form, both DraftKings and FanDuel have Hoffman priced up this week.
The Ponies
Billy Horschel (DK - $9,100 & FD - $9,100)
The former Fed-Ex Cup Champion is an interesting player this week. We have seen throughout his career that Horschel can go from a string of missed cuts to winning a tournament in just a week's time. He played his best golf of 2018 at last week's RBC Heritage, finishing T-5 at a tough golf course.
Horschel has tremendous upside at this week's Valero Texas Open as evidenced by his course history. Since 2013, Horschel has notched THREE Top-5 finishes at TPC San Antonio: a T-3 in 2013, 3rd in 2015, and a T-4 in 2016. This week presents the unique opportunity to jump on a notoriously streaky player that seems to be rounding into form, heading into a tournament in which he has proven Top-5 potential.
Horschel's erratic game isn't ideal for cash games, but makes him the type of boom or bust option we look for in large-field GPP's. Both sites have Horschel priced at $9,100 this week, but due to some inferior players being priced more expensively than him, he is a much better value on FanDuel.
Ryan Palmer (DK - $8,300 & FD - $9,500)
Looking for a sleeper play this week? Ryan Palmer might just be your huckleberry. The veteran from Amarillo, Texas struggled through an injury plagued 2017 season, but has popped up a couple of times in 2018. Palmer played well to start the year, notching a T-20 at the CareerBuilder Challenge and then very nearly winning the following week at the Farmers Insurance Open, losing in a three man playoff.
Palmer has been inconsistent since the hot start, but his eye-opening course history at the TPC San Antonio certainly justifies him as a value play consideration this week. Palmer has finished in the Top-10 at the Valero Texas Open in the last three consecutive years, with a T-6 in 2015, a T-4 in 2016, and a T-6 last year.
His spotty play in 2018 will scare most DFS players away, but his impressive results in San Antonio over the past several years make Ryan Palmer much more than a dart throw this week. His DraftKings price of $8,300 is a little higher than I had hoped and puts him in GPP-only territory. Though higher priced, Palmer might actually be more playable on FanDuel at $9,500. Palmer's game log won't draw in many casual players, so expect ownership levels to be reasonable on both sites.
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.
