Last week, we examined three veterans that have managed to dramatically exceed their preseason expectations, a class of player that is disproportionately likely to bust the next year. This week, we look at another class of player likely to bust: The highly touted prospect that puts up strong MLB numbers in a limited sample size.

All three of this week's players are highly touted first rounders. Michael Conforto began to revitalize the Mets' offense and playoff chances a few days before Yoenis Cespedes arrived to steal his spotlight. Corey Seager has Dodgers fans hoping their management kicks veteran shortstop Jimmy Rollins to the curb. Miguel Sano has added a power element to the Twins lineup that has taken the team from early hot streak pretenders to legitimate playoff hopefuls.

Fantasy owners may want to tread carefully in these untested waters, as many prospects take a few years before hitting their major league stride. Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas, and Brandon Morrow are just some of the names that found themselves hyped on Draft Day only to fail their fantasy owners miserably in recent seasons. Avoiding the urge to overpay for a hot month can be just as important as landing the Mike Trouts and Ryan Brauns that are able to maintain their elite production. Where do our featured players belong?

 

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM)

While 2015 was not scheduled to be his year, Conforto has burst onto the scene with a .288/.368/.530 triple slash line and seven dingers since his callup in late July. Drafted two short years ago, Conforto's minor league history is almost as limited as his MLB service, but does include some promising things. In 206 High A PAs before his callup this year, Conforto slashed .283/.350/.462 with seven homers. A promotion to Double-A yielded .312/.396/.503 and five bombs in 197 PAs, though an unsustainable BABIP of .368 had something to do with those numbers. A .383 BABIP at Low A in 2014 (186 PAs) likewise casts doubt on his strong numbers there, but all of his minor league stops indicate one skill Conforto does have: plate discipline.

This season, Conforto has a healthy 11.2% walk rate to pair with an above average 18.4% K rate. Advanced stats support these numbers, as his 24.6% O-Swing% and 8.3% SwStr% are both above average. Plate discipline is among the first stats to stabilize, so these numbers are encouraging despite the small sample. Conforto's minor league rates provide more reason for optimism, as he posted a 15.6% K rate in Low A, 12.6% at High A, and 17.8% at Double-A. This makes his current mark a professional worst, completely understandable since it is his first exposure to the Show and more than viable since it is still better than the 21% MLB average. Conforto has also drawn walks at an above average clip at every minor league stop: 8.6% at Low A, 8.3% at High A, and 11.7% at Double-A. The fact that his walk rate increased against more advanced pitching is a very good sign, indicating that he can make the necessary adjustments to succeed in MLB.

Why do fantasy owners in non-OBP leagues care? Plate discipline tends to suggest that a player will be able to hit for a favorable batting average as strikeouts do nothing but hurt it. If Conforto rarely strikes out, it stands to reason that his average will be better than someone who Ks more often. Conforto seems to have power potential as well, as he is on a 20 HR pace across all levels this year and elevates the ball at a healthy 38.7% rate. If he can hit .280 with 20 HR and the R and RBI that come with his projected favorable lineup slot next year, he'll really be a fantasy asset.

His .288 batting average this year is somewhat inflated by a .313 BABIP, but it is really not that high. Conforto's minor league BABIPs have been very high and he is not fast, so he may be better than most at line drives. His 22.6% MLB liner rate is around 1.5% better than league average, but would not be completely unheard of if it became Conforto's career norm. Even if liner frequency does decline, his current BABIP on liners is .652, a few points shy of the average mark. Overall, there is at least hope that Conforto can be a moderately plus BABIP guy, and that is all he would need to sustain his current production.

Conforto is never going to steal bases so his fantasy owners will need to look elsewhere for that stat. His 17.1% HR/FB may also head south, though we do not know his baseline yet. The Mets have also protected him from left-handed pitching -- he has just 12 PAs against them this year -- making him potentially susceptible to lefties going foward. Still, he has 20 HR power right now and should be able to manage a plus average and counting stats. He's also been completely overshadowed by Cespedes, so his price should be cheaper than other prospects with a similar profile. That makes Conforto a champ for 2016.

Verdict: Champ

 

Corey Seager (SS, LAD)

A triple slash line of .389/.492/.611 is exciting even if it is only over 65 PAs. The pair of homers and steals with SS eligibility makes Seager seem like the perfect fantasy asset until you look under the hood. When you do, you'll find a ridiculous .432 BABIP after it was just .298 in 464 Triple-A PAs prior to his MLB debut. The speed is something of a mirage, as he has cracked double digit steals in only one minor league season (2013 Low Minors) and only barely did so with exactly 10. This also means that he does not have the wheels to sustain an elite BABIP. Michael Conforto gets his BABIP from line drives, but Seager's below average LD% of 19.6% suggests that this is not his game either. Instead, his BABIP is rooted in a .357 figure on groundballs without elite speed and a .889 mark on line drives that exceeds the MLB average by 200 points! Neither seems sustainable going forward.

His power also seems suspect with a 60.9% groundball rate against just a 19.5% FB%. Sluggers want to hit 40% of their batted balls into the air, and Seager is not currently cracking half of that number. Seager is not supposed to be a pure slugger, but a number this low will make five bombs per campaign a challenge. Since he also lacks the speed to make seeing eye singles exciting for fantasy owners through SBs, we should look for many more flies before seriously investing in Seager.

Optimists can make a case using Seager's minor league BABIPs, as he posted a .450 BABIP in 161 Double-A PAs last year and .385 repeating the level for 86 PAs this season. However, the sample sizes are really tiny. He has also consistently managed 20 HR per minor league season despite his ludicrous GB% in the Show. I just can't see that happening in MLB, however, at least not yet. Maybe someday Seager can be the player that has dominated in a handful of games, but there is little reason to think it'll be in 2016.

Seager's plate discipline has been elite this season with a 15.4% BB rate and 12.3% K rate. It is almost unheard of for walks to be more numerous than strikeouts, especially for a rookie. Since plate discipline stabilizes quickly, this is at least one point in his favor, right? Wrong! Seager's league average 30.5% O-Swing% does nothing to support a walk rate that high, and his 10.7% SwStr% is slightly below average and in no way suggests an elite strikeout rate. Optimists can again point to something in Seager's minor league history, this time the fact that Seager's K rate improved dramatically in the offseason. In 2014, Seager struck out 24.2% of the time at Double-A, a rate in keeping with his established norms to that point. This year, it fell to 12.8% at that level and 14% at Triple-A before his callup. Prior to this year, Seager's only sub-20% strikeout rates were in Single A in 2013 (18.6%) and rookie league the year before (16.3%). Clearly, he changed something that led to success. Yet whatever he would have changed is happening in the majors now, and the more advanced metrics like SwStr% do not buy in at all. The walks were also not foreshadowed in this manner (previous best: 10.9% at A ball in 2013). As pitchers learn Seager's tendencies, his plate discipline will erode in a big way.

His elite production on a big market, playoff bound team will ensure that Seager costs a lot on Draft Day. He doesn't run, needs to grow into his power and relies on a ludicrous BABIP for batting average. These are not the qualities you look for in your more expensive players. Pass.

Verdict: Chump

 

Miguel Sano (3B, MIN)

Sano has shown big time power throughout his professional career. He followed up 28 dingers in A ball in 2012 with 35 split between High A and Double A in 2013. This year, he owns a major league triple slash line of .279/.393/.572 with 17 HR in just 275 PAs. Before that, he slashed .274/.374/.544 with 15 HR in 286 Double-A PAs. Added together he has 32 HR despite skipping Triple-A and missing all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he still has two weeks to add to the total. Wow!

Sluggers want to elevate the baseball 40% of the time, and Sano does so 40.3% of the time. He is still growing, so this number could rise to something like 45% at his peak. His current 32.7% HR/FB seems high even for an elite slugger, but Sano figures to consistently crush the league average in this regard and hits enough flies that it really shouldn't matter. Sano will hit 30 bombs next year barring injury and has a reasonable shot at 40+. The Twins are sure to give him a nice lineup spot, so Runs and especially RBI will be strong. If your 2016 roster requires power, Sano will provide it.

His .280 average this year may lead you to believe that you are getting a multi-dimensional asset, but that is less of a sure thing. His .420 BABIP is ridiculous, fueled by a 25.6% LD% and a low IFFB% for a slugger at 7.7%. He is not fast enough to sustain his current .364 BABIP on grounders. No one sustains a .243 BABIP on flies, especially when so many of them end up over the fence and disqualified from BABIP. BABIPs and LD% never stay this high for extended periods of time, so regression is surely in order. Where it lands is an open question, as Sano's BABIPs range wildly throughout his minor league history. It bottoms out at .265 at Double-A in 2013 and tops out at .397 at High A earlier that season. These fluctuations are likely caused by the Twins' aggressive promotion of their young slugger, allowing him to exceed 300 PAs at one level exactly once to date (553 Single A PAs in 2012). His BABIP that year was .307, which is the best guess we have as a baseline going forward. The other seasons simply have too few PAs to draw meaningful conclusions from, and missing all of last year does not help either.

Those in OBP leagues should note that Sano walks a ton, likely because the opposition is afraid of his power. His 15.6% BB rate is supported by both a 25.8% O-Swing% and a minor league history that counts an 11.9% walk rate as a professional worst above Rookie League. Sadly, he strikes out more -- his 37.1% K rate is downright laughable. This number is also supported by advanced metrics (15.6% SwStr%) and a minor league history where a 23.8% strikeout rate is a career best by a significant margin. This is very much the makings of an Adam Dunn profile, where a .220 batting average can be paired with a .400 OBP. In non-batting average formats, Sano is an early rounder for sure. Otherwise, you better have a plan for a big average hit.

With one game at first base and nine at his primary position of third, it is possible that Sano will be only a Utility option to start 2016. Depending on how the Twins use him, he may gain 3B eligibility in the first week of the season or be typecast as a DH for the rest of his career. The power is real, but the average will be bad and the roster flexibility negligible. If you want Sano in 2016, you'll need to plan your entire draft or auction around him by shoring up average early and ensuring you have roster flexibility elsewhere on your squad. The power could well be worth it, but it says here that some chump will take him way too early expecting a third baseman with a strong average and flounder in the standings as a result. Don't let it be you.

Verdict: Chump (Champ in some situations)

 

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