RADIO
We’re about a fifth of the way through the season, which means OH GOD PANIC TRADE EVERYONE.
Kidding! Don’t do that. I’ve preached patience throughout our time together over the last month, and nothing’s changed in that regard. But as we’ve talked about before, there is a difference between being patient and being passive. A timely trade or two can mean the difference between a championship and a long journey to the middle. Here are the starting pitchers you should be looking to acquire or move in week 6 of the MLB and Fantasy Baseball season.
Starting Pitcher Buys
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
Kluber suffered through his fourth consecutive loss on Thursday, allowing five runs in 5.2 innings against the Royals. He’s now 0-5 with a 5.04 ERA. It’s hardly the start anyone hoped for or expected out of the follow-up to his Cy Young season. Owners who paid the sticker price on Kluber’s breakout may be ready to hit the ejector seat, making him a prime buy-low candidate. Take a look at his peripherals and you’ll notice that not much has changed. Yes, the home runs are up a bit, but everything else is pretty much in line with last season’s performance. Kluber’s still striking out a batter an inning while flashing excellent control. The main culprits for his struggles are an inflated BABIP and a cratered strand rate. It’s true that the Indians’ defense has been awful, but that didn’t stop the Klubot last year. You may recall that his 2014 didn’t get off to a great start, and things turned out okay.
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians
RotoBallers may recall that I viewed Carrasco as a moderate bust coming into the season. That was relative to the expectant price being paid more so than any doubt of his talent, though. He’s in more or less the same boat as his teammate, his lackluster ERA more a function of lousy defense and luck than a true reflection of his skill. In both cases, the smart money is a bet that the homers will come down and each pitcher will return to the form they displayed in 2014. If you can pry either one away from a skittish rival at a discount, the profit potential is enormous.
Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers
Sanchez has a longer track record than either of the two aforementioned pitchers, but he’s generally been an underrated fantasy asset. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the underlying numbers paint a much prettier picture than the inflated ERA. Sanchez’s peripherals have remained remarkably consistent over the last few seasons, during which he’s been quite dependable. Buy with confidence.
Starting Pitcher Sells
Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
Keuchel essentially came out of nowhere last season with 200 innings of sub-3.00 ERA pitching, endearing himself to fantasy owners despite a pedestrian K-rate. He’s off to a terrific start this year, posting a 3-0 record and 0.80 ERA through his first half-dozen starts. To continue the theme of this piece, though, he’s basically the same pitcher he was in 2014. That microscopic ERA is rooted in a .172 BABIP and 88.2% strand rate. Once those numbers normalize, Keuchel will return to being a back-end fantasy option. His value will never be higher. It’s time to cash out.
Shelby Miller, Atlanta Braves
As impressive as he was in his rookie year, Miller’s sophomore season raised a ton of red flags. He regressed in every conceivable way, and the Cardinals included him in the Jason Heyward trade. He’s started his Braves career off nicely, with a 4-1 record and 1.66 ERA. His peripherals suggest that he’s made some tangible improvements as well. His control has improved slightly and he’s doing a better job keeping the ball on the ground. Still, he’s benefitting from good fortune that isn’t likely to continue, and the strikeouts aren’t where they need to be to make him worth the risk.
Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
Kazmir’s resurrection remains one of the more impressive comebacks in recent memory, and he’s definitely a viable fantasy starter. That’s particularly true if he can maintain the K per inning pace he’s currently set. However, he is another pitcher reaping the rewards of unsustainable batted ball luck and a LOB% with nowhere to go but down. Assuming his last turn against the Twins didn’t scare too many owners off, someone in your league will likely pay a higher price for Kazmir than he’s worth.
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