C.J. Anderson's Draft Value in 2015: Why He's Your Guy in Denver

Montee Ball was a borderline 1st round pick in almost every draft last year. To the dismay of hundreds of thousands of fantasy owners, he stunk and got injured halfway through the year.  His backups (Ronnie Hillman, Juwan Thompson and most importantly C.J. Anderson) outperformed him in almost every statistical category.  Anderson became one of the most dominant running backs in football in the six games in which he started, scoring 8 touchdowns, rushing for over 100 yards per game, and also significantly contributing as a receiver.  The question now is what comes of this backfield in 2015?  With new coach Head Coach Gary Kubiak, it’s expected that each running back will at least get a chance to earn the starting job, however Anderson definitely has a leg up on it before training camp begins.

A quick scouting report on Anderson to start things up: Listed at 5’8, Anderson plays even smaller, making it near impossible for linebackers to see him behind his mammoth offensive line. He’s a bowling ball weighing it at 225.  For comparison, Maurice Jones-Drew is just one inch shorter and 15 pounds lighter.  Anderson’s speed isn’t comparable to the pocket Hercules, however his tackle shedding and elusiveness are both on par with Jones-Drew.  Anderson consistently shows great patience in letting his offensive line create holes for him to hit, and he’s shown exceptional ability to make defenders miss in open space with extremely short yet powerful strides.  Arm tacklers normally slide right off of him.  There’s a ton to like about his game, while his speed is the only real attribute holding him back from being truly elite.

There’s a few questions that need answering coming into this year, and we’re going to address them all.

How Will Carries be Distributed with Gary Kubiak as Head Coach? 

With Kubiak coming in, all the running backs on the roster are going to get a fresh start, which is great news for Montee Ball.  Is this going to have a lot of impact on how the carries are split? Most likely not.  The zone blocking scheme utilized by John Fox and Gary Kubiak is much more suited for C.J. Anderson, who relies heavily on his vision for finding the open spaces on the line.  Ball on the other hand was a highly touted running back that figured to excel in a zone scheme, but fell flat on his face this past year when trying to find and set up holes at the line of scrimmage.  He tended to rely heavily on his physical attributes, which aren’t all that exceptional.

Kubiak is a big fan of finesse runners and isn’t afraid to give a massive amount of carries to unheralded running backs over running backs that were seen as “better options” in his previous years (see Arian Foster and Justin Forsett over Bernard Pierce and Steve Slaton).  In fact, another stat dating back to Kubiaks days as offensive coordinator in Denver starting in 1995, there have been only 3 years in which one running back didn’t handle over 66% of the carries under Kubiak.  Those carry totals were consistently above 300, and sometimes over 350.  One of those years involved an injury to Terrell Davis, while the others involved completely ineffective running backs being used in a committee.  In the past year, the Broncos saw roughly 395 carries from their top 4 running backs.  That number should shift to roughly 450 in the Kubiak era.  That is beyond promising for when Anderson most likely wins the job, who was seeing workhorse numbers down the stretch when the Denver offense shifted to a run focus.

Will Anderson Lose Goal Line or Third Down Touches to the Other RBs? 

I do expect Anderson to lose quite a few touchdowns to both Thompson and Ball, but that number won’t have a huge effect on his value.  Thompson isn’t much of an NFL talent, while Anderson has proved to be a more effective back on the goal line than Ball in his career.  Even if Anderson does lose some red-zone looks, we can’t ignore that he received 27 carries in the redzone in the past 6 games, which translates to roughly 75 in a full season, good for what would be top 8 in the league.

Third down duties are also a fair question.  Anderson showed above average hands in his starts, while his open field elusiveness was even more impressive than Hillman's after the catch, despite being slower.  They both received below average marks in pass protection.  This past year, Hillman had a 65% catch percentage with 4 drops, while Anderson had an 85% catch percentage with only 3 drops.  From the statistics and the eye test, we can see that Anderson should be a clear three down back, with plenty of targets and red zone looks.

Will the Denver Offensive Line Improve This Year?

Even with the new coaching staff and questions surrounding Montee Ball, I believe that the Denver offensive line is going to be the biggest variable going into the season for C.J. Anderson’s value.  Orlando Franklin was one of the best run blocking guards in football last year, and now he’s not with the team.  Once star LT Ryan Clady is also coming off of a poor running blocking season, finishing at -6.4 in Pro Football Focus’ grades.  Nothing was done in free agency as well to improve any part of their line outside of Shelley Smith (who was borderline abysmal for the Dolphins this past year).  As of now, the Denver offensive line looks like Ryan Clady, Shelley Smith, Manny Ramirez, Louis Vazquez, Michael Schofield.  While those names won’t inspire anyone, it’s still an average line.  Most of these players have been consistently above average in terms of run blocking, and have the exceptional athleticism required to excel in Kubiaks zone scheme.  The Broncos are expected to pursue offensive line heavily in the draft, so keep an eye out for any acquisitions. It’s not enough of a concern right now to hurt Anderson's value, but keep an eye out for any reports coming from Broncos camp.

Do the Broncos Have a Tough schedule?

Actually, the schedule is quite promising.

I expect an improvement from Oakland, Kansas City, San Diego and Chicago this year, but teams like Detroit, New England and Pittsburgh should struggle more this coming year against the run.  Still, 12 of the 16 opponents next year ranked in the bottom half of the league last year in terms of run defense.  Denver will also be heavy favorites in 11 of these 16 games, which means a better chance for Anderson to see 30+ touches on any given Sunday.

The Verdict

Gary Kubiak brings nothing but promise to the Denver running back situation.  Year in and year out his offenses rank near the top of the league in rushing, while consistently using a single feature back.  While it has taken some time, Anderson finally established himself as a potential star for the Broncos in the future.  Even with the loss of the underrated run blocker Orlando Franklin, I expect the run game to be even more dangerous this year. Though Anderson hasn’t technically been given lead back duties, he’s fully expected to.  He has the potential to become an Arian Foster-type workhorse in this offense, with the addition of having Peyton Manning in the same backfield to keep defenses more than honest.  As long as Anderson wins the job, he has the potential for a 1500+ total yard year along with 10+ touchdowns and a large amount of targets.  He’s a sure-fire mid-late first rounder as long as he wins the job before your draft.

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