Fantasy Football League-Losing Picks: Florio's Early Round Draft Avoids for 2026

August 12, 2026

Michael F. Florio's players to avoid in the early rounds of 2026 fantasy football leagues. His early round fantasy draft avoids and busts, including Trey McBride, Drake London, and more.

Everyone loves telling you who to draft. Who is going to be a league-winner that will help you raise a trophy come the end of the season. That is the fun part. But you know what is just as important? Knowing who not to draft, especially in the early rounds.

Avoiding early-round landmines is just as important as finding those middle and later-round picks that hit. I do not care how well you draft in those ranges; if you draft a bust with one of your first few picks, you are going to feel it. It greatly lowers your chances of winning a title.

There are a number of early-round, big-name players that I am fading this season.

Florio’s Big Name Fades

Christian McCaffrey is one of the best fantasy players of all time, but I am still fading him this year. The main reason is that, with playoffs included, he registered 450 touches last year. Since 2010, there have been three cases where a running back registered that many touches. Each saw their yardage decrease by at least 38 percent the following year.

The last time CMC handled 400 touches in a season, he was 23-years-old and played three games the following season and 10 in the next two years. Now he is 30, significantly older than any other player in this sample. On top of that, McCaffrey’s rushing production has been fading. He saw the fewest rushing yards over expectation (-166) in 2025.

Including the playoffs, Christian McCaffrey had 450 touches this season 👀

This scares me a ton for next season! Why? Let me explain 👇👇

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) January 22, 2026

There are both injury and performance-decline concerns with CMC. The upside is very high, but I would argue it is very unlikely he duplicates last year's volume. Even if he comes close, the production decline adds a concern there. Given that you need to use a top-5 pick, I will continue to pass for other options.

Players I would draft instead: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ashton Jeanty

De'Von Achane is becoming a popular fade, but I have been here ever since the Dolphins signed Malik Willis. Over the last two years, Tua Tagovailoa threw passes to running backs at the second-highest rate in the NFL (20 percent). In that same span, Willis threw to backs at the lowest rate in football (eight percent).

For perspective, no RB scored more fantasy points off catches and receiving TDs the last two years than Achane. Only Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs had more receiving yards in that span. Additionally, Mike McDaniel's offenses have dialed up passes to RBs at a higher rate than Bobby Slowik’s (16 to 14 percent).

I know Achane has produced in bad offenses in the past, but the Dolphins had more talent around him. He will be the sole focus of all defenses, and if the Dolphins are often trailing, that is a negative game script for an RB. My fear is Achane could suffer similarly to what Breece Hall did with the Jets in 2025. Due to that, I am out at cost.

This tweet annoyed people so let me break it down!

Targets are worth about 2.5 carries in PPR leagues. Receiving totals are what made Achane so special in fantasy. The biggest reason I am low on him this year is the change in OC and QB.

Let me explain why below👇👇 https://t.co/sZxlVFakT4

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) July 7, 2026

Players I would draft instead: Omarion Hampton, Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley

Drake London is an extremely talented receiver. You could easily argue he is one of the better receivers in the league. My issue is with his QB room. Tagovailoa simply did not look like an NFL starting QB last season, especially down the stretch. Over the years, he has struggled more and more throwing outside and downfield - two areas where London specializes.

Sure, he averaged over 20 fantasy PPG with Michael Penix Jr. last year, but the expectation is that Tagovailoa will start the season. I think we see both QBs, but there is no certainty when a change happens. Lastly, Kevin Stefanski is now in charge of the offense, and he historically has involved the tight end at a very high rate. I will pass on London, and if you want a Falcons pass catcher, take the shot on Kyle Pitts Sr. later.

Players I would draft instead: A.J. Brown, Brock Bowers, Chase Brown

Trey McBride has been my guy for a while now. I called his breakout season and then went against consensus with him as my TE1 the last two years. Now that he is a consensus second-round pick, I am out.

First, McBride is coming off of an absolute career year. He nearly doubled his career TD total last season, while scoring over 100 more fantasy points than any other tight end. I think some natural regression comes his way. Now, I will admit Jacoby Brissett is a cheat code for tight ends. However, I have questions about how long we will see Brissett as the starter.

The Cardinals are playing for 2027 and beyond. Eventually, starting Brissett goes against their long-term interest, and he increases their odds of winning. With Carson Beck playing well in preseason, it only adds fuel to that fire. A QB change would obviously hurt McBride’s fantasy value, especially in the fantasy playoffs. The past was fun, but I will take a year off before buying back in on the likely dip in ADP next season.

Players I would draft instead: Brock Bowers, A.J. Brown, Omarion Hampton, Chase Brown, etc

Jeremiyah Love is a very exciting prospect. Going third overall ensures that he will see volume as a rookie. It has also pushed him to be a second-round pick in fantasy drafts, which is too rich for my blood. For one, he is running behind a poor offensive line, on a team that will likely be trailing often (look at their schedule!).

I envision a season similar to Ashton Jeanty’s last year. There will be some spike weeks, but Love will likely have to rely on big plays, catches, and touchdowns to get there. The issue is, Jeanty had an elite volume share in a backfield all to himself.

That will not be the case for Love, who shares a backfield with Tyler Allgeier, James Conner, and potentially others like Trey Benson. If Allgeier vultures goal line looks like he did at times to Robinson in Atlanta, it will be hard for Love to return value at his lofty cost.

Do I think Jeremiyah Love gets the “majority” of touches “eventually?” Yea

Do I think Tyler Allgeier is a thorn in his side especially early on? Yea

Will the Cardinals ever be in a position to run the ball a lot throughout the course of an entire game? No https://t.co/BNN6cZ38Kt

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) July 26, 2026

I will enjoy watching Love play, but I will gladly let someone else in my league pay that price and deal with what I think will be a week-to-week headache.

Players I would draft instead: Omarion Hampton, Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams

Garrett Wilson is a player I guarantee will finish higher than I rank him. I rank him, though, as I would draft him, and I am not all that interested in Wilson. I understand he is a very talented individual. Unfortunately for him, his position relies largely on the rest of the offense around him, and there is not a lot to love on the Jets.

We have seen this offense hold him back before. Wilson has finished inside the top 15 WRs in fantasy PPG just once in his four-year career - and it was last season when he played just seven games. The Jets offense has been holding Wilson back for years, and new OC Frank Reich doesn’t inspire much confidence. In four of the last five years he has overseen an NFL offense, that team finished 23rd or lower in total passing yards.

Geno Smith is coming off of a brutal year, and even if he can regain his old form, I question if he would start the entire season. The Jets, much like the Cardinals, are looking ahead to 2027. I expect Cade Klubnik to take over at some point, which would be a nightmare for fantasy purposes. Especially in the fantasy playoffs. I will let someone else roll the dice on the talent here.

Players I would draft instead: Emeka Egbuka, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Ladd McConkey, Christian Watson, Jameson Williams

Bucky Irving is a talented back, but I have very little interest in drafting him this season. He could prove me wrong, but my concerns are too big to ignore. The Bucs' big offseason addition to the offense was signing Kenny Gainwell.

Not only could Gainwell steal some carries, but he is also a huge threat to be the primary RB in the passing attack. Not that Irving won’t get any targets, but if the two-minute drills, third downs, and obvious passing situations go to Gainwell, it severely lowers Irving’s upside.

Additionally, Irving last season did not see any goal line looks. Sean Tucker and Rachaad White split those, with Tucker looking like an efficient option there. If that trend carries over, it could be a fantasy nightmare for Irving. In the range of outcomes is Bucky’s role being a between-the-20s runner, who mixes in the pass game. A between-the-20s runner is the worst role for fantasy purposes.

Due to that, the floor seems entirely too low, even at a reduced cost.

Draft these running backs with improved offensive lines in #FantasyFootball this season!https://t.co/yal1GojCbt

— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) August 1, 2026

Players I would draft instead: Bhayshul Tuten, Cam Skattebo, TreVeyon Henderson, David Montgomery, Quinshon Judkins

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.

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