RADIO
Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 6 in 2026, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 6 of the 2026 fantasy baseball season. For those unfamiliar, this is a weekly column where we examine starting pitchers who had surprisingly strong starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
Saturday night's alright (for pitching), as this week we're analyzing three starters who dominated the competition this past Saturday. First, we'll deep dive into Max Meyer's shutout performance against the Phillies. Then, we'll look at whether Reid Detmers is finally breaking out after eight strikeouts against the Mets. We'll finish it off by looking at White Sox righty Sean Burke, who continued his hot streak by shutting down the Padres.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of May 4.
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Max Meyer, Miami Marlins – 31% Rostered
2026 Stats (prior to this start): 30 IP, 3.30 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 15.9% K-BB%
05/02 vs. PHI: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
Meyer has gotten off to an excellent start this season, putting up a sparkling 2.68 ERA through his first seven starts. Saturday was perhaps his best start yet, as Meyer one-hit the Phillies over seven innings en route to the victory. The right-hander has battled injuries throughout his major league career, but he’s also shown flashes of brilliance at times. Is Meyer finally ready to break out?
The third overall pick in the 2020 draft by Miami, Meyer was a big pitching prospect coming out of Minnesota. Scouts thought his combination of plus heat, strong breaking balls, and solid command would make him a future frontline starter. We’ve seen glimpses of high-end pitching from Meyer over the years, but he’s never been able to put it together over a full season.
Getting to a full season has been difficult for Meyer, as he spent time on the injured list in each of his first three seasons in the majors, including missing all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery. All told, he’s thrown just 164.2 big league innings since debuting in 2022, and only has a 4.70 ERA and 4.70 FIP to show for it.
Meyer works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a slider, sweeper, four-seam fastball, sinker, and changeup. He’s mixed in all of these pitches with some degree of regularity this season, having thrown each pitch at least 12% of the time so far. For Meyer, it’s mostly been about the slider and sweeper, though, as those are his two most thrown pitches.
We’ll start with the sweeper, which is a relatively new pitch for Meyer. He began throwing the sweeper in 2025, using it about 11.5% of the time last season. He’s more than doubled his usage this year, throwing the sweeper 26.1% of the time, making it his second-most used pitch.
An 88.2 mph offering, Meyer’s sweeper has been dominant thus far. Batters are hitting just .179 off the pitch with a .231 SLG and a .271 wOBA. Even better, Meyer has a .199 xBA, .330 xSLG, and .271 xwOBA against, along with a monster 37.8% whiff rate. These numbers suggest that the results against Meyer’s sweeper are both real and sustainable. But what makes the sweeper so tough to hit?
Meyer’s sweeper stands out in a few regards. First, it’s rather hard for a sweeper at 88.2 mph. It’s the third-hardest sweeper in the majors among qualified pitchers, and the hardest for a pitcher who works primarily as a starter. It also has extreme movement, with 7.1 inches of drop and 10.1 inches of glove-side movement this season. Meyer has gained nearly three inches of drop with his sweeper this season compared to last year. Here’s a comparison of his 2025 pitch movement profile and his 2026 pitch movement profile (sweeper in gold).
2025:
2026:
Notice how much drop the pitch has gained and how it deviates from the league average? That makes it incredibly tough to read and hit for opponents. One thing you also may’ve noticed is the change in Meyer’s arm slot from 2025 to 2026. His arm angle is five degrees higher this year, going from 37 degrees in 2025 to 42 degrees this year. Let’s compare a Meyer sweeper from 2025 and 2026 below.
2025:
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) May 5, 2026
2026:
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) May 5, 2026
You can see he has more of an over-the-top throwing motion, and the 2026 sweeper has way more movement. Meyer seems to have upgraded his sweeper for 2026, and it has been nearly unhittable for opponents.
The sweeper is performing well, but Meyer’s slider is somehow performing even better thus far. A 90.5 mph offering, Meyer’s slider is quite hard for a breaking ball. It doesn’t have the same extreme movement as the sweeper, with Meyer averaging about 1.2 inches of drop and 0.6 inches of glove-side movement with his slider so far, but the pitch has been dominant nonetheless. Batters are hitting .121 off Meyer’s slider with a .242 SLG and a .241 wOBA. He also has an outstanding 43.5% whiff rate with the pitch, which is truly elite territory. Here’s an example of the pitch.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) May 5, 2026
Harder and sharper than the sweeper, Meyer’s slider has long been his best pitch, but it’s never had outcomes quite this good. Results this good are likely unsustainable for Meyer long term, but he does have a .192 xBA, .331 xSLG, and .299 xwOBA against his slider so far. Meyer is throwing his slider and sweeper a combined 53.2% of the time, and this could be a winning approach for him.
The slider has always performed well, even when Meyer has struggled, and the sweeper passes all the tests. It has great measurables, great results, and certainly passes the eye test. Meyer could wield these two pitches to great success in 2026.
The breaking balls are great for Meyer, but what about his fastballs? He’s reduced his four-seam usage this season, throwing the pitch a career-low 21.2% of the time. A 95 mph offering, Meyer boasts slightly above average velocity with the pitch, as well as a plus spin rate of 2546 RPM.
His four-seamer has actually made some improvements this season as well, with Meyer gaining nearly two inches of induced vertical break. He averaged 15.4 inches of IVB in 2025, but is averaging 17 inches of IVB thus far in 2026. Let’s compare pitch movement profiles again (four-seamer in red).
2025:
2026:
It’s not as drastic as the sweeper changes, but we can see how the pitch shape has changed and gained rise this season. Then let's compare a four-seamer from 2025 to 2026, noting the change in arm slot.
2025:
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) May 5, 2026
2026:
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) May 5, 2026
Perhaps these changes could lead to better results with the heater for Meyer. Opponents crushed his fastball in 2025 for a .315 AVG and .630 SLG, and the expected stats suggested that he earned those results. This year, opponents are hitting just .222 off the four-seamer with a .444 SLG and a .314 wOBA.
He does have a .265 xBA, .520 xSLG, and .358 xwOBA against, which suggests that there could be regression, but that’s still an improvement over last year. Meyer’s fastball has always sort of been a liability for him in the majors, but these improvements could mean better results for Meyer going forward. On paper, this is not a bad fastball, so I’m thinking his end results could be somewhere in the middle between his 2025 and 2026 numbers.
Meyer also throws a 93.6 mph sinker, a pitch he began using more often in 2025. While not as hard as his four-seamer, Meyer’s sinker has done one thing well, and that’s induce groundballs. He has a 67.3% groundball rate with the sinker all-time, as well as a 6-degree average launch angle and an 84.7 mph average exit velocity against this season.
He primarily throws the pitch to right-handed batters, and the sinker could be a nice tool for him against righties or when he needs a groundball. It’s not as good as his four-seamer, but it’s a decent pitch and piece of his arsenal.
He rounds things out with an 88.1 mph changeup, a pitch he’s throwing a career-low 12.4% of the time. He mostly throws the pitch to lefties, but he’s also been unafraid to use his sweeper and slider against lefties, meaning the changeup has lost some of its purpose. It’s still gotten some good results, with batters hitting .200 off the changeup, along with a .250 SLG and a .224 wOBA. He also has a strong 31.8% whiff rate with the pitch, and got three of his 15 whiffs with it on Saturday.
Batters are hitting .222 off this pitch all time, so I believe Meyer can maintain good results with the changeup. It’s not the centerpiece of his arsenal, but it’s a good off-speed pitch to round out a strong repertoire.
Verdict:
We’ve seen flashes of Meyer’s talent at times throughout his rocky big league career. He was still a popular sleeper pick coming into the season despite a career 5.29 ERA at the time and a litany of injuries. So far, he looks ready to fulfill that potential, adding a dominant sweeper to pair alongside his nasty 90 mph slider. This duo of breaking balls has carved batters up, and while Meyer has probably overperformed with the pitches to a degree, the gains in movement and strong whiff rates suggest that these results are sustainable to a degree.
Meyer has also made strides with his four-seam fastball, gaining nearly two inches of rise compared to last season. His new pitching motion may have contributed to this, and these gains should help the pitch be effective. He pairs the 17 inches of IVB with plus velocity and movement, making it a solid fastball.
Meyer will surely experience regression on his current .240 BABIP (career .295) and 5.7% HR/FB (career 17.8%), and his ERA will likely creep closer to his current 3.62 xFIP or 3.60 SIERA. Still, Meyer has made real gains, and many of the metrics behind his hot start appear to represent improvement and sustainability in his performance. Meyer should not be on waivers in any league anymore. Hopefully, he stays healthy because he has all the ingredients for a breakout.
Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels – 43% Rostered
2026 Stats (prior to this start): 33.2 IP, 4.28 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 19.1% K-BB%
05/02 vs. NYM: 6.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
Detmers was electric on Saturday, outdueling Nolan McLean in the no-decision with eight strikeouts. Detmers has been unpredictable this season, oscillating between dominance and mediocrity seemingly on a start-by-start basis. Still, he’s a former top prospect and has a 2.82 FIP and 20.8% K-BB% following this game. Could this finally be it? Is it finally time for the Detmers breakout we’ve been dreaming of since 2021?
A first-round selection in the 2020 draft, Detmers went just seven picks after the aforementioned Meyer. Like Meyer, Detmers was a highly touted pitching prospect, viewed as a future frontline starter for the Angels. He made his MLB debut after just 14 minor league appearances in 2021, and it’s been pretty rocky for him ever since.
He has a career 4.73 ERA, 4.00 FIP, and 9% walk rate, so it hasn’t always been easy for Detmers. He’s had some of his most success as a reliever, with Detmers having made 61 appearances out of the bullpen for Los Angeles last season with a 30.1% K rate.
Detmers works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, curveball, and sinker. He’s only thrown the sinker 3.6% of the time this season, and has a career 1% usage rate. It’s not a big part of his game, but he’s thrown his other four pitches at least 11% of the time this season. His most used pitch this season has been the four-seamer at 39.6%, but that wasn’t the case on Saturday.
Detmers carved up the Mets, getting eight strikeouts with 16 whiffs on 95 pitches. He did it primarily by relying on his slider, throwing the slider 39% of the time, by far the most of any pitch. His slider usage is up this season, with a 33% usage rate in 2026 versus a career 28.6% usage rate.
An 86.3 mph offering, Detmers’ slider is relatively soft, at least compared to his 94 mph fastball. It also has strong movement, with Detmers averaging 3.5 inches of drop and 3.1 inches of glove-side movement with the pitch this season. The pitch isn’t sharp or hard, but has sweeping horizontal movement that can make it an effective bat-misser. Here’s an example from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) May 5, 2026
Not a bad pitch, and Detmers has gotten some excellent results with the slider so far. Batters are hitting just .220 off the slider with a .237 SLG and a .214 wOBA. The expected stats are even better, with a .184 xBA, .224 xSLG, and .186 xwOBA against, along with a 33.9% whiff rate and 43% chase rate.
These numbers seem great, and they are great, but the truth is, Detmers has always gotten good results with his slider. Batters are hitting .226 off the pitch all time, and he’s never posted a whiff rate under 29% with it in any major league season. These outcomes don’t necessarily mean Detmers has turned a corner, but it is nice to see him with a career-high slider usage rate. It’s his best pitch, and I tend to like it when pitchers lean on their best pitches.
He’s using the slider a lot this season, but his most used pitch overall has still been the four-seam fastball. A 94 mph offering, Detmers has lost some velocity on the pitch compared to last season. He averaged 95.8 mph with the four-seamer in 2025, though he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen that year. As a starter, he was usually around the 93-94 mph mark, which is basically league-average velocity.
Detmers may have average velo, but he does boast plus movement, including 17.5 inches of IVB and 9.1 inches of arm-side movement. In theory, that should make the pitch difficult to read and hit for opponents, but batters have had no trouble with Detmers’ four-seamer this season. Batters are hitting .300 off the pitch with a .520 SLG and a .392 wOBA. These results are somewhat inflated by a .350 BABIP against the four-seamer, but this fastball has never performed all that well in the majors.
Batters have a .267 AVG and .823 OPS against the pitch all time, and it has been very susceptible to home runs in the past. Detmers has only allowed one home run off his fastball so far, but that’s because of his 5.6% HR/FB rate. His career mark is 13.6%, and he’s pitching to his flyball tendencies with a 43.9% flyball rate, practically the same as his career rate of 44%. He’s also allowed a 91.5 mph average exit velocity against with the pitch.
Batters are hitting it hard and elevating it, so even though his xSLG is much lower than his actual SLG, I think Detmers could be getting a little lucky with homers here. Overall, he has a career 1.18 HR/9 and an 11.7% HR/FB ratio, but this season he’s allowing just 0.68 HR/9 and a 6.3% HR/FB ratio. I’m not saying the bottom is going to completely fall out, but I would expect home run regression for Detmers going forward.
One pitch that Detmers has reintroduced into his arsenal is the changeup. The changeup was never a big part of his game prior to 2025, but he threw literally one changeup last season in 61 appearances. He didn’t need it pitching out of the bullpen, but he’s begun throwing it more often again this season, using it 12.3% of the time overall and 19% of the time against the Mets.
An 83 mph offering, Detmers’ changeup is noteworthy for its extreme movement. It has 12.1 inches of induced vertical break and 11.9 inches of arm-side run. Here’s a look at his pitch movement profile for this season (changeup in green).
See how much it deviates from the typical changeup? It has a ton of movement and has been a really effective pitch for Detmers this season. Batters are hitting just .208 off the pitch with a 35.4% whiff rate, though they have a .500 SLG and a .305 wOBA. Here's an example from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) May 5, 2026
The pitch really hasn’t been all that good for Detmers in previous years, with a career .295 AVG against. Even so, these are some promising results, and the movement suggests that Detmers could sustain some degree of strikeout prowess with the pitch long term. He primarily throws it to righties, and it could make for a great tool to use against opposite-handed hitters. It was nice to see Detmers using his changeup more often, and it made sense on Saturday as the Mets' only left-handed hitter in the starting lineup was Juan Soto.
Another pitch that Detmers has begun mixing in more often is his curveball. Detmers has an 11.1% curveball usage rate this season, but he threw it 17% of the time on Saturday. It was the third straight start where his curveball usage was in the double digits, and Detmers notched three whiffs on seven swings in this game.
Detmers’ curveball is sort of a unique pitch in today’s game. At 72.7 mph, it’s one of the softest curves in the majors, especially relative to his fastball velo. Most pitchers throwing curveballs this soft are struggling to hit 90 mph on the gun, but not Detmers. The curveball is also relatively low spin at 2525 RPM, but that hasn’t stopped it from being effective.
Batters are hitting .200 off the curve with a .333 SLG and a .232 wOBA. Like his slider, the expected stats are even better for Detmers, with a .183 xBA, .214 xSLG, and .187 xwOBA off his curveball this season. It’s also been his best strikeout pitch with a 39.4% whiff rate.
The pitch may be soft with low spin, but it has exceptional movement, averaging 14.9 inches of drop and 11.1 inches of glove-side movement this season. Let’s peek at his pitch movement profile again (curveball in blue).
And here’s an example of this pitch from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) May 5, 2026
It’s got a ton of drop and break, and the velocity gap between the fastball and curveball keeps hitters off balance. The increased usage in this start could again be attributed to the righty-heavy lineup deployed by the Mets, but this trend of increased usage over the last three starts is encouraging. This curveball looks like a bona fide strikeout pitch, and Detmers can pair it with a plus slider and changeup for a trio of strong secondary options.
Verdict:
Detmers has teased fantasy players since 2021 with flashes of brilliance and the hopes of a breakout, and it may finally be coming. He’s relying less on his so-so 94 mph four-seam fastball and is instead leaning into his secondary offerings. His slider has long been touted as his best pitch, and it’s been dominant so far, including generating nine whiffs on Saturday. His slider, changeup, and curveball have all been outstanding this season, with each pitch boasting an opposing BA of .220 or under and a whiff rate of 33.9% or higher.
Detmers has also been leaning into his secondary offerings more and more as of late, and this start against the Mets was his first time throwing each pitch at least 17% of the time. Detmers can keep hitters guessing with his deep arsenal of plus secondary pitches, and he has the potential to be a plus strikeout pitcher. His fastball leaves something to be desired, and he’ll likely experience regression on his current 0.68 HR/9, but this is still a very talented pitcher. The upside is too good to ignore, and Detmers should be rostered in all formats.
Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox – 20% Rostered
2026 Stats (prior to this start): 33.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 12.8% K-BB%
05/02 @ SD: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Burke had his best start of the season on Saturday, fanning a season-high eight batters in six innings of shutout ball. He earned his second win and second quality start of the year and lowered his ERA to 2.72 in the process. Burke was mostly viewed as an innings-eater type, hoping to power his way through another rebuilding year for the White Sox. He’s flashed more upside through his first seven appearances so far, and now managers are wondering if he can be a fantasy asset in 2026.
Originally a third-round pick by Chicago in 2021, Burke wasn’t a huge prospect coming up, at least not compared to the other two pitchers I covered in this piece. His prospect status was hampered by injuries throughout his minor league career, and he never threw more than 108 innings in any given minor league year, which was back in 2022.
He made just nine starts in 2023 due to injury, and really struggled upon returning in 2024. Burke may not have gotten a chance in many other organizations, but the White Sox were desperate for pitching, and he threw 134.1 innings for them last season, posting a 4.22 ERA and 4.92 FIP.
Burke works with a six-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, curveball, sinker, slider, cutter, and changeup. The cutter and changeup haven’t been big parts of Burke’s game this season, but he’s thrown his other four pitches at least 14.6% of the time. This rang true on Saturday as well, as Burke featured his four primary pitches heavily against the Padres.
His most used pitch this season has been the four-seam fastball, and that was no different on Saturday. He threw the pitch 35% of the time in that game and has thrown it 37% of the time this year. A 94 mph offering, Burke’s velocity is league average, though the pitch has some strong movement. His four-seamer has averaged a whopping 19.3 inches of IVB this season, giving the fastball a ton of rise.
He also averages 2545 RPM with the pitch, along with 87% active spin. The fastball is moving in unpredictable ways and is tough for batters to make solid contact against. Opponents have a meager 86.5 mph average exit velocity against Burke’s four-seamer so far, along with a .203 AVG, .322 SLG, and a .266 wOBA.
Burke’s 21.3% whiff rate is solid for a fastball, and he earned five of his 11 whiffs with the pitch on Saturday. The expected stats suggest that Burke can sustain these strong results, at least to a degree, as he has a .221 xBA, .377 xSLG, and .289 xwOBA against his four-seamer this season.
Even though Burke struggled a bit last season, his fastball was just as effective, with a .239 AVG, .385 SLG, and .325 wOBA against. He also had a .204 xBA, .382 xSLG, and .310 xwOBA off the pitch in 2025, as well as a 24.7% whiff rate. Burke may have just average velocity, but the exceptional movement and spin on his four-seamer make it a plus pitch anyway.
Burke’s next most used pitch has been the curveball, which he threw 26% of the time on Saturday and has thrown 23.7% of the time this season. A 79.3 mph offering, Burke’s curveball has had poor results against it so far. Batters are hitting .273 off the pitch with a .424 SLG and a .316 wOBA. What’s most alarming for me is the paltry 18.6% whiff rate. That is pitiful for a breaking ball, and Burke had just one whiff with the pitch against the Padres.
What’s strange about this pitch is how much movement Burke has lost compared to last season. In 2025, he had 14.9 inches of drop and 5.9 inches of glove-side movement, but in 2026, he had just 13.1 inches of drop and 4.2 inches of glove-side movement. He also lost over 100 RPM in spin rate, dropping from 2547 in 2025 to 2426 this year.
It’s a big, loopy curveball that sort of just drops in as it approaches the plate. The curveball was supposed to be Burke’s best pitch as a prospect, but the numbers this year are lackluster. Perhaps he can turn things around if he can regain his feel for the pitch, but as it stands, I am unimpressed by Burke’s curveball.
Burke’s other breaking ball is a slider, which is much harder than the curveball at 86.5 mph. It’s also a high-spin pitch, averaging 2465 RPM this season. It’s a small margin, but it’s not often that you see a pitcher with a higher spin rate on his slider than his curveball. The slider has been much more effective than the curveball this year, with batters hitting just .167 off the pitch with a .222 SLG and a .200 wOBA.
The numbers suggest that these results are sustainable, with a .217 xBA, .258 xSLG, and a .233 xwOBA. He also has a 31.8% whiff rate with the pitch and had five of his 11 whiffs with it on Saturday.
Burke has decreased his slider usage in 2026. He threw the pitch 21.9% of the time last year, but has thrown it only 14.6% of the time this season. Saturday saw an uptick at 19.3% usage, and it would be nice to see Burke incorporate this pitch more frequently. The curveball has never been great at generating whiffs, and the slider might be his best strikeout offering.
Truth be told, I wouldn’t expect Burke to be a strong source of strikeouts. His slider is solid, his fastball is solid, and his curveball certainly has the potential for more whiffs, but I think he’ll struggle to post a strikeout rate higher than 21-22%, which is about league average.
Burke also uses a 94.2 mph sinker, a pitch he threw 13% of the time on Saturday and has thrown 15.5% of the time overall. This is a big increase over last year, when Burke threw his sinker just 4.8% of the time. It has performed well so far, with batters hitting .217 off the pitch with a .435 SLG and a .315 wOBA. The sinker has served as a setup pitch against righties for Burke, who throws it primarily when behind in the count, in even counts, or as a first pitch.
It’s a good counterbalance to his four-seamer, since the sinker doesn’t have as much rise and has much more horizontal movement. Batters thinking or expecting a sinker will often swing under the four-seamer due to its movement, causing lots of whiffs and weak hits. It’s hard to say just how effective this pitch can be since Burke just began featuring it more often, but I think it can be a solid piece to a solid repertoire.
Verdict:
Burke has gotten off to an outstanding start in 2026, putting up a 2.72 ERA and 15.4% K-BB% in 39.2 innings. That will certainly have fantasy managers excited, but I don’t think Burke can sustain quite this level of success. He has a deep arsenal, but none of his pitches truly stand out as dominant or exceptional. His 94 mph fastball plays up thanks to excellent movement and spin, and should be a good offering for Burke all season.
His slider has been outstanding thus far, both at generating whiffs and weak contact. It’s not an elite slider, but it looks to be above average as a strikeout pitch. He might benefit from using the slider more often, especially since his curveball seems to have deteriorated. The curveball was once supposed to be Burke’s best pitch, but he’s lost drop and break with it so far, and has an underwhelming 18.6% whiff rate with it.
He began mixing in a sinker with his four-seamer, and while it’s too early to draw major conclusions about the pitch, it does seem to have the makings of a league-average sinker.
The biggest issue I have with Burke from a fantasy perspective is a lack of upside. His arsenal looks to be good enough for Burke to hang as a major league starter, but he doesn’t have the juice to rack up big strikeout numbers on a regular basis. I’m also a little skeptical of his current 5.1% walk rate. His walk rate was more than double that in 2025 at 10.6%, and walks have always been an issue for him. 39.2 innings do not erase an entire professional career of walk issues.
He’ll almost certainly experience regression on his current 6.8% HR/FB ratio and his .259 BABIP. If and when these normalize, his ERA, WHIP, and home run rate will all increase. He’s a fine streamer or two-start option depending on matchups, but I don’t think he’s got the chance to break out like Meyer or Detmers. For now, I think fantasy managers should ride the hot hand and expect some regression going forward.
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