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Doug's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/5/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Liam Hicks, Juan Soto, and others!
Some of the very worst pitchers of 2026 are on tonight’s slate, and you know we are going to attack them to lower our risk. Don’t forget that a win is a win, and even if the bet is “easy”, it still pays. You don’t have to make yourself look like the smartest person in the room; you just need to pick the guys who are in the best spots to go yard.
Conversely, just because a matchup against a guy like Cristopher Sanchez looks good, it doesn’t mean you need to play it. The guy has allowed just three home runs all season and is one of the best arms in the game. Wouldn’t it be easier to just attack Brayan Bello and his eight home runs allowed? I agree, so let’s do that!
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/5/2026)
Juan Soto (NYM) vs Michael Lorenzen (COL) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+344 DK)
Juan Soto hit for us in last week’s article, and we are going back to the well with him once again tonight. Soto has four extra-base hits over his past seven games, getting at least one hit in six of those games. He’s swinging the bat well, and doing so especially against right-handed pitchers. He has a .214 ISO and a team-leading .619 SLG against righties so far in 2026. Soto has also walked more than he’s struck out against right-handers, meaning he’s seeing the ball well and not chasing unhittable pitches.
He will face Michael Lorenzen tonight, a pitcher who has given up six home runs in 34 innings pitched this season. Although only two of those home runs have been allowed at home, he has an 8.56 ERA and a .394 BAA at Coors Field, so it’s not like he’s pitching well.
Lorenzen has been especially bad against lefties, allowing a .750 SLG and over 50% Hard%. That hard hit number is ridiculous and will be a disaster against power lefties at Coors. The odds may not be too long, but a bet on Soto to go deep tonight is one of the safest risks you can take tonight for a decent return on your investment.
Liam Hicks (MIA) vs Chris Bassitt (BAL) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+950 Bet365)
Marlins catcher Liam Hicks has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season, popping seven home runs through the first month of the year. Two of those home runs have come over the past four games, and all seven have come against right-handed pitching.
Hicks leads the team with a .308 ISO and a .641 SLG against righties, making him one of the best power bats at the catcher position in the league. He has only struck out 8.7% of the time against righties, meaning he’s got a better chance of putting one over the fence than someone who’s unable to get their bat on the ball.
Liam Hicks hit 6 HR over 390 MLB PA in 2025.
He has 7 in 104 in 2026:
8% Barrel% (+4.5%)
40.2% Hard-Hit% (+12.5%)The biggest difference is his 23% PullAIR%, a 7.9% increase from his 2025 data. pic.twitter.com/o88NmabGuv
— LouisAnalysis (@LouisAnalysis) May 1, 2026
Chris Bassitt has only allowed three home runs this year, but all three have come on the road, and today’s game is in Miami. The thing about Bassitt is that he’s been very hit or miss this year, allowing four or more runs in half of his starts and one or fewer runs in the other half of his starts.
Two of those blowout games came on the road. Bassitt’s biggest struggle has come against lefty bats, allowing a .593 SLG. He’s not missing bats either, with a K-rate under 10% against lefties. Against a guy like Hicks, who doesn’t swing and miss often, that puts Bassitt in a precarious position, and one we can take advantage of with a home run bat for Hicks.
