Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates for 2026 - National League Edition

March 21, 2026

Marty's fantasy baseball breakout candidates and sleepers to target in 2026. His top National League picks for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

Believe it or not, we’re just about one week away from the start of the 2026 MLB season. After a long winter of scouring Fangraphs and Baseball Savant, it’s finally time to meet up with your friends, have some pizza and beer, and draft the best team you can.  As you enter your final wave of draft prep, make sure you’re building a plan. One of the most effective strategies is to work backward.

Instead of mapping out your draft from the first round, start with your final picks. That way, you can study Average Draft Position (ADP) trends to identify which types of players you can afford to wait on and which ones you may need to target earlier than expected. To assist you in organizing the backend of your draft, this article highlights two NL pitchers and two hitters who are going after pick-200 but have the potential to make a meaningful impact on your fantasy roster.

For ADP, we’re using NFBC ADP data taken from drafts from March 1 through March 19. As draft season winds down, use these players to fortify the backend of your team. If you have any comments or questions, feel free to reach out to me on X at @Marty_Tallman.

Braxton Ashcraft, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent ADP: 260

Braxton Ashcraft has the potential to develop into a top-40 fantasy pitcher, yet he’s currently being drafted outside of the top 250. In 2025, Ashcraft finally stayed healthy and threw a career-high 118 innings across Triple-A and the majors. Once the Pirates called him up, he posted a 3.43 xERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate, and a 50.8% ground-ball rate over 69 2/3 innings.

Under the hood, he graded out with a 105 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+, and a 101 Location+.

When breaking down his arsenal, it is no wonder that he found instant success. The young flamethrower out of Texas has a four-pitch mix headlined by his slider that has a 32.4% whiff rate and a 26.8% strikeout rate. His fastball sits at nearly 97 mph, while his 96 mph sinker consistently induces groundballs. He also mixes in a curveball that produced an impressive 42.6% strikeout rate.

With three plus pitches and a serviceable fastball, Ashcraft has the arsenal to develop into a reliable fantasy arm, but he does have some flaws. The 6-foot-5 right-hander has struggled to stay healthy throughout his young career. Since 2019, the 26-year-old has undergone shoulder surgery, suffered a torn meniscus, and had Tommy John surgery.

However, after logging a career-high innings total last season, he has entered camp fully healthy and is performing well. So far this spring, he has posted a 3.38 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and an excellent 3.1% walk rate across eight innings. The main question now is how many innings he can handle and whether he can stay healthy over a full season. Given his past, it's reasonable to project Ashcraft for around 140 innings.

If he reaches that mark and his skills hold, he has SP3 upside in standard leagues. ATC projects him to strike out 121 batters over 134 innings of work. At the same time, it would be wise to pair him with a few established veterans who have proven they can handle a full-season workload.

Mickey Moniak, OF, Colorado Rockies

Recent ADP: 240

Does anyone else put on their best Flashdance outfit and sing “He’s a Moniak, Moniak…” when Mickey Moniak steps to the plate? No? Just me. Alright, moving on. Moniak is a former No. 1 overall pick who finally broke out in 2025. The 27-year-old set career highs with 24 home runs, 68 RBI, 62 runs scored, and nine stolen bases while slashing .270/.306/.518 across 461 plate appearances.

Under the hood, the gains look legitimate. He posted a .497 xSLG (90th percentile), a 13.8% barrel rate (85th percentile), and a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed (80th percentile). Unfortunately, his biggest hurdle remains contact. Moniak has struggled with swing-and-miss in the past, but he’s improved both his contact rate and strikeout rate each season since 2023.

Perhaps the biggest strike against Moniak is his limited ceiling, as he is a strong-side platoon bat who struggles against left-handed pitching. However, platooning has become increasingly common, meaning a hitter who sees around 500–550 plate appearances isn’t as much of a liability as in the past.

For fantasy purposes, it’s helpful to compare Moniak against other outfield platoon bats. By comparing their ADP to their 2026 ATC Auction Value, we can gauge where Moniak fits relative to his platooned peers. According to ATC, he is a bargain at his current price.

As you can see, Moniak is projected to be worth over $10 even though he is being drafted outside the top 200 picks. To put this into perspective, he projects to be more valuable than full-time hitters such as Spencer Torkelson, Dylan Crews, and Ramon Laureano.

For 2026, if Moniak can earn 500 plate appearances, he has the upside to hit 30 home runs while swiping double-digit bases with a .250 batting average. Playing half of his games in Coors Field doesn't hurt either.

Cade Cavalli, SP, Washington Nationals

Recent ADP: 321

After a long winding road, Cade Cavalli will be the Washington Nationals' starting pitcher on Opening Day. If he can stay healthy, he has the tools to be a reliable mid-rotation pitcher for your fantasy team. The 27-year-old may not have huge strikeout upside, but so far, he has done a great job keeping the ball on the ground and generating weak contact. Unfortunately, like Ashcraft, workload will be a concern.

In 2021, Cavalli went under the knife for Tommy John surgery, and for the next two years, he battled shoulder inflammation and "dead arm." Last year, Cavalli was finally able to pitch more than 120 innings between the minors and majors, and once he was called up, he held his ground. Cavalli recorded 40 strikeouts while posting a 4.16 xERA and a 1.48 WHIP across 48 2/3 innings.

He also posted an 18.3% strikeout rate, a 6.8% walk rate, and a 55.1% ground-ball rate.

When we take a look at his arsenal, no single pitch jumps off the page, but his overall profile is strong: 108 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+, and 94 Location+.

Obviously, none of his numbers are spectacular, but it appears the Oklahoma native is already trending in the right direction for the 2026 season. Through nine spring innings, the 6-foot-4 right-hander has not surrendered a run, and he's posted a 28.1% strikeout rate with a 6.3% walk rate.

Coming into 2026, Cavalli is fully healthy and is expected to pitch as much as possible for the rebuilding Nationals. He has the upside to pitch to a 3.90 ERA with a 22% strikeoutrate across 140 innings. With that said, he may be a liability to your WHIP, so make sure to track his command throughout the season.

Carson Benge, OF, New York Mets

Recent ADP: 338

Carson Benge is the riskiest pick of the four because we aren't sure whether he will start the season at the major league level. Although he does appear to be on track to make the Mets’ Opening Day roster, veteran outfielder Mike Tauchman is complicating that picture. Tauchman homered in his first spring at-bat and is currently posting a .500 OBP across 26 plate appearances.

Despite that, it is no secret that Benge is considered the long-term answer in the Mets’ outfield, and the organization is well aware of his potential. So far in spring, Benge leads the Mets in hits and has been excellent defensively. Last season, across three levels, Benge hit 15 home runs, scored 87 runs, drove in 73 runs, and stole 22 bases, slashing .281/.385/.472 over 519 plate appearances.

He also maintained an 81% contact rate and finished the year with a 150 wRC+. While he struggled somewhat in Triple-A, he still barreled the ball 15.5% of the time, produced a .377 xwOBA, and hit a ball 110.4 mph. Here is a detailed breakdown of his Triple-A performance.

For fantasy purposes, Benge is an OF5 with upside, and if he lands the job out of the gate, he projects for 10-15 home runs, 15-20 stolen bases, with a .240 batting average. If Benge doesn't make the team or isn't able to find instant success in The Show, he's an easy cut.

More Fantasy Baseball Advice