Week 1 Fantasy Football Busts? Players Who May Disappoint (2025)

Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 1 of the 2025 season? Andrew's potential fantasy football busts to avoid in Week 1 fantasy football lineups.

The managers completed their research, the players have been drafted, and now there's one thing left to do before kickoff: Set the all-important Week 1 lineup.

Week 1 may have the fewest roster decisions to make. You essentially set your lineup when you completed your draft, because bye weeks have yet to come into play, and most players are the healthiest they'll be. But there are still a few landmines to be aware of, with a little preseason bias mixed in.

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• NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
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Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint, for Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.

Caleb Williams (QB, CHI) vs. Minnesota (MNF)

How fast can Caleb Williams pick up the Ben Johnson offensive system? That's been one of the bigger questions surrounding the Chicago Bears' offseason, especially when reports from the beginning of training camp said the former first-overall pick was struggling.

There will be some growing pains here as the first-year head coach installs his system and seeks perfection in every detail from every player.

Ben Johnson is planning to get creative with QB Caleb Williams, according to @JFowlerESPN. #DaBears pic.twitter.com/7sIyLPBVPS

— Ben Devine (@Chicago_NFL) September 4, 2025

It won't help that the first real game action comes against a defensive coordinator notorious for randomizing looks and confusing opposing quarterbacks.

Flores' unit was the fourth-best defense against fantasy football quarterbacks a year ago. Williams was one of the few success stories in the Week 12 matchup (26.9 points), but struggled in the Week 15 rematch (also on Monday Night Football) and failed to reach the double-digit mark.

Although it's a small sample size, Williams' prime-time stat lines are concerning. He's 0-3 so far, averaging 162.3 passing yards, and has one touchdown to three interceptions. Oddsmakers predict another loss to go on his record.

Justin Fields (QB, NYJ) vs. Pittsburgh

All offseason, when discussing quarterback Justin Fields, I've noted that, while his overall fantasy football finishes have been top-12, they've come in the ugliest fashion possible. It's almost entirely based on his mobility. His legs will need to be relied on even more in New York, a team devoid of talented pass catchers outside of Garrett Wilson.

Well, guess who he faces in Week 1? It's the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that not only excels at slowing down scramblers but is very familiar with mobile quarterbacks. They play against Lamar Jackson twice a year. The former MVP averages 41.3 rushing yards per game in eight contests against his AFC North rivals.

That's well below his 59.9 per game career average. He totaled 68 across two games against the Steelers last year.

Not only did they do a good job against Jackson, but they also surrendered 229 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to the position all of last year. They are also very familiar with how Fields operates in and out of the pocket, given he was on the roster last year.

If the #Jets win on Sunday, Justin Fields will be first quarterback EVER to win a season opener for a team in one season & then beat that same team in the season opener the next season, per @JoshDubowAP pic.twitter.com/40PSa6goR6

— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) September 3, 2025

Scoring opportunities are going to be hard to come by for both teams on Sunday. This game currently has an over/under of 38.5 points. That's four points fewer than the next lowest line on the Week 1 slate. This sets up as a bad spot for Fields and several other playmakers on both rosters.

Kaleb Johnson (RB, PIT) at New York Jets

Kaleb Johnson’s sixth-round ADP is going to cost fantasy managers early. It’s not to say the rookie wasn’t worth the selection; instead, it may take some time to pay dividends.

Johnson’s upside and allure were that the third-rounder may take control of the backfield on the run-heavy Pittsburgh offense. He was selected above his counterparts, Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, yet sits behind them on the team’s depth chart. Granted, not all depth charts are created with accuracy in mind (I mean, TreVeyon Henderson is definitely not New England's RB3), but this one seems legit.

Mike Tomlin on Jaylen Warren:

"His progress has been very evident and he's to be congratulated ... Certainly he'll be our featured runner. Certainly you'll see [Kaleb Johnson/Kenneth Gainwell], but at what time and at what degree [will depend week-to-week]."#Steelers

— Christopher Carter (@CarterCritiques) September 2, 2025

The rookie reportedly hasn’t had a strong training camp and especially struggled in pass protection. That’s a must for a Pittsburgh running back to protect the 41-year-old, immobile Aaron Rodgers.

Johnson may have been selected in the starting roster rounds of your fantasy draft, but he won’t act like one in Week 1. He may see the fewest snaps of the backfield trio, which definitely won’t get it done against a strong New York Jets defense.

Omarion Hampton (RB, LAC) vs. Kansas City (Friday in Brazil)

As with Johnson and other rookies, sometimes fantasy managers have to be patient. That wasn't necessarily supposed to be the case for Omarion Hampton, especially after Najee Harris injured his eye in a fireworks accident on the 4th of July. The veteran didn't appear on track to play in the season opener, but has now fully practiced in the days leading up to the premiere in Brazil.

Again, all expectations are that the first-round pick will eventually dominate the touches in the Los Angeles backfield. He'll need it now, in Week 1, to exceed expectations against the Chiefs. Running backs who dominated touches rarely ran the ball well against Kansas City's front seven last season.

The ones who split snaps floundered. See Bijan Robinson's 16 for 31 yards while Tyler Allgeier stole seven carries. See James Cook's nine carries for 20 yards (albeit two touchdowns) compared to 10 total for Ray Davis and Ty Johnson. Ironically, one of the split-carry success stories was Harris, who dashed for 74 yards on 13 carries when Warren got 11 of his own.

However, Kansas City All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones sat out that contest.

Najee Harris said he is expects to play against the Chiefs on Friday in Brazil: “I’m ramping up to it.” Did not want to get into any details on what happened in the fireworks accident. Said his vision has not been affected and called the eye injury “superficial.” pic.twitter.com/T7xoqDVodX

— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) September 1, 2025

Because Harris missed training camp with what he calls a "superficial" eye injury, Hampton will likely get the start and the bulk of the touches. I'm not saying that Harris is the sole reason for Hampton's downfall, but he will be on the field enough to be annoying. Plus, the Chargers haven't scored more than 17 points in any of the last four matchups with the Chiefs.

Temper your expectations for the rookie, who was likely drafted in the third round of redraft leagues.

James Cook (RB, BUF) vs. Baltimore

It's almost a perfect storm of misery for Buffalo Bills running back James Cook in Week 1. He missed a large chunk of training camp, Buffalo has a stable of running backs the coaching staff trusts, and they're facing last season's best rush defense.

The Baltimore Ravens allowed 3.6 yards per carry last season and were more than 13 yards per game better than the next best run defense. The unit also only gave up eight rushing touchdowns to running backs. That's where Cook made his fantasy football money last season. There may be a little preseason bias here, but it's improbable Cook lives up to his 15-touchdown bananza from a year ago.

Baltimore's dominance was most evident in the Buffalo-Baltimore matchup in Week 4 last year. Cook took nine carries for 39 yards and caught one pass for another nine. An inability to establish a running game led to a Ravens rout. But before you go blaming the blowout for Cook's mediocrity, notice that he played 55.9% of the team's offensive snaps, his third-highest mark of the season.

Cook was better in the playoff matchup, but still only mustered 82 yards on 20 touches (three catches) and, once again, failed to find paydirt.

Defenses are generally ahead of offenses early in the season. Expect Cook to be the casualty of this trend and witness a more-than-you-like share for Ray Davis and Ty Johnson.

Austin Ekeler & Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB, WAS) vs. New York Giants

Do you believe a team's Week 1 depth chart? I've already stated that Pittsburgh's screams truth, and New England's is full of fibs. Washington's is another one that doesn't seem entirely accurate.

Here's how it currently stands: Veteran Austin Ekeler leads the running back room, followed by journeyman Jeremy McNichols, then training camp success story Chris Rodriguez Jr., and then seventh-round fantasy football sensation Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

Here's the Commanders' Week 1 depth chart.

• Rookie Josh Conerly Jr. is the starting RT

•Nick Allegretti OR Andrew Wylie will start at RG while Sam Cosmi is on PUP

•Bill is RB4

• Jaylin Lane is PR, Deebo is KR pic.twitter.com/SlKrEBEUec

— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) September 2, 2025

Whatever you believe about this depth chart doesn't matter. It may not even be accurate, as Croskey-Merritt was getting work with the second team in the practice immediately following the depth chart hubbub. This is going to be a multi-back committee, no matter how you slice it.

Ekeler, entering his age-30 season, won't be overworked as the "lead" back. McNichols is likely the direct backup to Ekeler's receiving role, but shouldn't factor into the backfield touches much. Rodriguez and Croskey-Merritt are going to get early-down work.

Factor in the rushing attempts from quarterback Jayden Daniels and maybe a backfield touch or two for wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr., and it's easy to see none of the running backs getting double-digit touches, even against a weaker New York Giants' run defense.

The good news is that Ekeler and Croskey-Merritt (depending on when you drafted) likely weren't selected to be starters for your roster. I'm waiting to see how Dan Quinn and Co. manage the rotation before relying on any Washington running back.

Calvin Ridley (WR, TEN) at Denver

See Denver defense, avoid the offense’s top receiver. The prediction doesn’t always work out, but All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II certainly tilts the odds in that favor.

Calvin Ridley's season-long outlook looks promising. He's a veteran WR1, leading a wide receiver room filled with rookies and the aging Tyler Lockett. He may be a top-10 target leader if he stays healthy this season, and can hopefully turn in a better catch rate with Cam Ward under center versus Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.

But there will be a learning curve for the first-overall pick, and, unfortunately, his professional debut comes against one of the league's stingiest defenses. The Denver secondary was, technically, the weak point of their 2024 unit. Surtain, however, did his job, boasting the third-lowest target rate (9.8%), second-fewest fantasy points allowed per target (1.15), and the fewest fantasy points allowed per coverage snap (0.11), according to PlayerProfiler.

The reigning Defensive Player of the Year also has a high shadow rate. Against a team that features Ridley and no other proven threats, Surtain following Tennessee's WR1 is a real possibility.

“If I had to write a textbook on cornerback play, it would be Pat Surtain.” 🔥
@PatSurtainll x #NFLTop100pic.twitter.com/dV5ACslvun

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 2, 2025

Ward may not get much help from the run game to free up his receivers. The Broncos ranked second in yards per carry (3.9) last season. The Tennessee offense as a whole will endure some growing pains against the veteran-laden Denver defense.

DK Metcalf (WR, PIT) at New York Jets

This Pittsburgh-New York matchup does not excite me in any form or fashion. I'm not high on Garrett Wilson this week, but he barely missed the cut for this article. Breece Hall was an initial selection who got bumped out of the danger zone for running backs I liked a little less.

We've already discussed the low-scoring projection from the geniuses in Las Vegas (see blurb about Fields). Essentially, the only player I'm excited about starting this week is Warren, and even then, he's a low-end flex.

That brings us to DK Metcalf, who Rodgers will favor if given the opportunity. But how open can Metcalf get? While he's not quite on the level of Surtain, Sauce Gardner is one of the most-feared cornerback matchups both in real-life and fantasy football. He only allowed 1.7 receptions per game as the primary defender and ranked third in target separation.

As a whole, the Jets' secondary was one of the best units against perimeter receivers last season.

Metcalf's strongest attributes are not his separation and contested catch abilities. It's why he's struggled against the best of the best cornerbacks this league offers. This matchup suggests a disappointing affair, and Vegas appears to agree. Oddsmakers placed his line receiving yards line at 54.5, and he's favored to go under his reception mark of 4.5.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, ARI) at New Orleans

The drumbeat throughout most of Arizona's training camp was a renewed dedication to the run game. James Conner is Mr. Reliable (when he's healthy) and will play a massive role for the Arizona offense. And, from Kyler Murray to head coach Jonathan Gannon to Conner himself, there have been multiple instances of the team talking up backup Trey Benson.

What a beautiful matchup to unleash the new 1-2 punch. The New Orleans Saints allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game to running backs last season and 18 touchdowns - tied for the most in the NFL. The late-game opportunities should be aplenty, too. Arizona is currently a 6.5-point favorite, the third biggest spread for Week 1.

Are we to believe Spencer Rattler will lead the Saints to 18 implied points against a dramatically improved Arizona defense?

A quick aside to talk about the actual player listed here, Marvin Harrison Jr. There's been no change in the offensive philosophy and personnel that led to a rookie-season bust. He scored eight touchdowns, too, so there's little room for improvement there. Think about the hype clips that came out of training camp.

Do you remember seeing a video that wasn't a low-separation deep ball? He may be able to come down with one of those early in the game, but that production better come quick, or Harrison may start his season where he left off in 2024.

Colston Loveland (TE, CHI) vs. Minnesota (MNF)

Look! Another rookie! In the same vein as Johnson (and Hampton to a lesser degree), fantasy managers need to be patient with Colston Loveland.

The 10th-overall pick is as enticing a prospect as most other rookies, coming off the board in the first round of most dynasty rookie drafts. He still carries plenty of appeal in redraft formats as the "Sam LaPorta" of Johnson's new Chicago offense, but it may take some time for him to grow into that role.

The Chicago offense is loaded with playmakers at the skill positions, including an incumbent tight end, Cole Kmet, who caught 73 passes two seasons ago and remains a red-zone threat. Toss in wide receivers D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and (the sneakiest of them all) Olamide Zaccheaus, and Williams has a plethora of target options.

Loveland could, and should, eventually take over as the primary tight end for Chicago, but Kmet will get his run, especially in these early-season games. When you add in that Minnesota was one of the best defenses at keeping tight ends out of the endzone (only three touchdowns allowed in 2024), it becomes hard to envision a Week 1 breakout from Loveland.

The hope is that fantasy managers paired the rookie with a reliable veteran (ala Hunter Henry) to start this week instead.

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