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John Johnson's 5 breakout players and potential league-winning picks for 2025. His top breakout candidates include Drake Maye, Deebo Samuel Sr., Jaydon Blue, and more.
Winning your fantasy football leagues is tough. It's even tougher if you draft middling players that, despite getting plenty of hype before the season starts, end up faceplanting and languishing on fantasy benches all season. It's arguably even worse if that player puts up mediocre production.
Players who have solid numbers but lack upside are difficult to deal with in fantasy. It becomes tough to know when to start and when to sit them, and in the playoffs, they can lose you matchups and knock you out of championship contention with a poor performance.
Taking higher-upside players is key, but in the later rounds of your drafts, these players become harder to find. Yet the value proposition of finding league-winners late in drafts is absolutely massive, so let's break down my biggest must-draft players for the 2025 NFL season!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
- Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
Maye's inaugural season in the NFL was a shaky one, but it's hard to blame him for a lack of production. He had, by many measures, both the worst receiving corps and the worst offensive line in the NFL. Maye's supporting cast was absolutely dreadful, as was the team's now-fired coaching staff.
With a reloaded receiving corps featuring Stefon Diggs and promising rookie WR Kyle Williams, a talented pass-catching running back, and reinforcements on the offensive line, Maye has a much better situation in which to take a leap forward. An experienced offensive coordinator, in Josh McDaniels, should help, too.
Example of WRs letting Drake Maye down badly last year. #Patriots pic.twitter.com/9X6eETBKiy
— Wizard Kelly (@13thxghost) August 30, 2025
Times were tough for Maye last season, but his receivers routinely failed to get open and make plays to catch Maye's often accurate passes. Maye was one of the more accurate QBs on throws deep downfield in the league last season, as statistics show, firmly pointing the finger of blame away from him.
Drake Maye delivered a 61% catchable ball rate on throws of 20+ air yards without pressure in 2024.
QB11 out of 41 qualifiers
(Source: @FantasyPtsData) https://t.co/QHMvqbFpj2 pic.twitter.com/psVyckZw7l
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 19, 2025
Maye's 74.0 percent catchable ball rate was nearly tied with those of Lamar Jackson (74.1%) and Jalen Hurts (74.5%), meaning he's already in good company despite being thrust into the starting role a few games into the season after the benching of Jacoby Brissett.
Maye has massive rushing upside. He's not seen as a great athlete, but his rushing numbers show otherwise. Despite hardly getting any designed rushing work, he averaged 7.8 yards per carry on 54 rushes last season. That led all players in the NFL who had 50 or more rushes, and rushing upside is massive for QBs.
We should expect better passing numbers from Maye this season, and more rushing work in his new offense. That justifies drafting Maye heavily in fantasy leagues in 2025!
RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos
This one seems easy to put together. Harvey has an elite college production profile. He was drafted with second-round draft capital. His head coach is elite offensive mind Sean Payton. The Broncos had a good season last year and have stability on offense. And they have one of the best offensive lines in the league.
The only supposed barrier to Harvey immediately stepping into a big role and being highly productive is RB J.K. Dobbins, whom the team signed in June of this year. But Dobbins was inefficient last season. He started the season against two very poor run defenses, but went on to play with poor efficiency the rest of the way.
J.K. Dobbins after his first two games against terrible defenses in 2024:
-168 rush, 639 yards, 3.8 YPC (Worse than Javonte Williams)
-0.12 MTF/Att (Worse than Javonte Williams)— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) July 7, 2025
Efficiency is much more important to NFL coaches than it is to fantasy managers. It's a big driving force in how teams divide up their carries. If a player can ostensibly pick up more yards on average by being faster, forcing more missed tackles, and being more elusive, why would the coach keep him off the field the majority of the time?
As with all players, there will be a learning curve here for Harvey. He's never played a down in the NFL. We could expect a much more even split in carries between Dobbins and Harvey -- Dobbins is a veteran, and the wealth of NFL experience he has could give him an early advantage over Harvey.
Starting RBs for the teams that Vegas expect to score the most points in Week 1:
Saquon Barkley
Derrick Henry
Josh Jacobs
Chase Brown
James Cook
??? Jacory Croskey-Merritt ???
??? Travis Etienne ???
??? RJ Harvey ??? pic.twitter.com/FQRIHbV19b— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 31, 2025
But with the Broncos having a high-powered offense and being expected to score more points than average over the season, especially against the underperforming Tennessee Titans offense in Week 1, there's reason to believe that Harvey will bust out of the gates and put up nice performances to start the year off.
Rookie RB’s under Sean Payton:
-Reggie Bush - 88 receptions
-Alvin Kamara - 81 receptions-RJ Harvey - PPR monster??? pic.twitter.com/eBAZNpSDRk
— Joel (@JG4President) August 25, 2025
There's also a mountain of evidence that rookie running backs in Payton's scheme get usage that's excellent for PPR leagues. Reggie Bush and Kamara are excellent examples. Kamara had a fabulous rookie season despite sharing the field with RB Mark Ingram, a veteran. And Kamara was selected much later in his draft than Harvey was.
Why work when you could daydream about RJ Harvey in Sean Payton's offense? https://t.co/n2RU2HGBTD pic.twitter.com/DcgLXuPR7Y
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 25, 2025
Harvey is a fantastic athlete, with great burst, acceleration, and long speed. He ran a 4.41-second 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Combine, one of the fastest among RBs. He also has elite contact balance, as you can see from the clip above. His game isn't totally flawless, but it's something that's likely to improve as the season goes on.
Even at his ADP, with him being firmly selected inside the fourth and fifth rounds in redraft leagues, he's worth a dart throw. "That's too expensive for a rookie" isn't a valid argument with people spending a first-round pick on Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty. So Harvey is a great pick to make in all fantasy leagues.
Jaydon Blue, RB, Dallas Cowboys
For the next two running backs, let's change things up a bit -- we'll discuss two huge sleepers at the position, and why you should have them on as many rosters as you can possibly manage. The first will be Blue (ankle), who was chosen by the Dallas Cowboys in the fifth round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Blue is an elite athlete. While he ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Combine, he did so with a grade two groin sprain, and improved his times at his Pro Day, running 4.25 and 4.28. Hand-timed 40s typically are faster, but that translates to around a 4.3-4.33 laser-timed 40, which is blazingly fast.
One of the biggest Fantasy football risers this draft season has to be Jaydon Blue
Receiving skills and game-breaking speed are unique traits ⚡️
Blue the only Dallas RB who has em https://t.co/XLroUScJuL pic.twitter.com/PFsR0wnHZk
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) April 28, 2025
Most notably, Blue joins a backfield severely lacking in explosiveness. The team signed RBs Williams and Miles Sanders in the offseason. Both combined for just two rushes of 20 or more yards last season. That's tough to deal with in a league that values explosive plays so highly.
Both Williams and Sanders are among the least explosive backs in the league, and fellow rookie RB Phil Mafah didn't run a 40-yard dash and clearly doesn't have great speed. Blue is not only the most explosive of the team's backs -- he might be the fastest overall player on the team.
And had he not been injured at the combine, it might be even clearer that he's one of the fastest RBs in the NFL. Players of his athleticism tend to earn substantial roles in their offenses because even a single big play can swing a game massively in favor of the team that makes it.
No clue if we'll see Jaydon Blue in 2025
If healthy, Blue brings an element that the rest of the Dallas backfield simply does not have https://t.co/Vz4HMEWsNN pic.twitter.com/EXSKzmkBVX
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 24, 2025
Blue should get his chance to shine this season. He's dealt with a number of injuries so far, but I imagine Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer will find it difficult to keep him off the field, especially given Blue's prowess as a pass-catcher.
Jaydon Blue had been buried behind some NFL level talents at Texas in his 1st two seasons, but he showed out in 2024:
+ 0.27 MTF/Att (8th/31 RB prospects)
+ 3.83 YACO/Att (12th)
+ 25% TPRR (2nd)
+ 1.59 YPRR (2nd)Blue is undersized at just 5'9 196, but he has sub 4.4 speed and…
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) April 11, 2025
He should come to handle most of the pass-catching reps of this running back room, given his explosiveness and abilities as a receiver, giving him even more upside in PPR leagues and making him an amazing value and bench stash for those leagues.
Jarquez Hunter, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Hunter is third on his team's running back depth chart, just like Blue is. That's just how it goes for rookies drafted outside the first round, generally, and Hunter will have to fight his way into getting more carries. But my analysis indicates there's a good chance he's already his team's best running back.
Fantasy managers might be skeptical of Hunter's chances of getting significant touches in 2025. After all, the team spent a third-round pick on Blake Corum, a hyper-productive college running back, and he didn't do much at all last season. But there are a few clear reasons for this.
Blake Corum vs Kyren Williams in 2024...
Williams:
-4.11 YPC
-0.13 MTF/Att (49th/70 RBs)
-1.9% explosive % (57th)
-2.02 YACon/Att (69th/70)Corum:
-3.57 YPC
-0.14 MTF/Att (40th/70 RBs)
-0% explosive % (70th)
-1.66 YACon/Att (69th)Obvious why Corum didn't get much work
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 31, 2025
Corum was handily outplayed by Williams last season. This is more of a damning indictment of Corum's abilities than it is a glowing endorsement of Williams' skills, as we'll get to later. But Corum was last in the league at creating explosive plays and averaged a miserable 1.66 yards after contact per attempt.
That ranked second-to-last among all RBs with 50 or more carries. His yards per carry, at 3.57, were abysmal, and he forced missed tackles at around the same rate as Williams. The film isn't encouraging, either, meaning his career could be dead in the water before it even gets started.
Kyren Williams in 2023:
YPC: 5.02 (RB6/57)
MTF/Att: 0.21 (RB20)
YACO/Att: 2.75 (RB21)
Explosive run: 3.9% (RB29)
YPRR: 0.682024:
YPC: 4.11 (RB36/54) (-18%)
MTF/Att: 0.11 (RB44) (-48%)
YACon/Att: 2.09 (RB43) (-23%)
Explosive run: 1.9% (RB49) (-51%)
YPRR: 0.56 (3rd worst)— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 30, 2025
NFL coaches see players with high efficiency and want to give them more touches. They see players with massive efficiency regressions and try their best to make changes, including in their personnel, to address these issues. Williams was extended this offseason, but running back money is very little in the grand scheme of things.
I don't imagine McVay is happy with how things turned out. It's likely that he wanted to give Corum more work as a change-of-pace back, and even work him into a committee, but his performance simply did not justify that. And if he regresses in Year 2, he could be sidelined even more. Speaking of Year 2 regressions, the above statistics are damning.
Kyren's TD numbers did go up! But he was a lot worse inside the 10 yard line, too.
In 2023:
-3.0 YPC
-0.25 MTF/Att
-1.72 YACon/AttIn 2024:
-1.9 YPC (37% decline)
-0.06 MTF/Att (76% decline)
-1.03 YACon/Att (40% decline)By almost every measure. So much worse.
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 30, 2025
Williams took a step back in nearly every statistical category in his second season. He did score two more rushing touchdowns, but his yards per carry, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt all plummeted on carries inside the 10-yard line.
Rushing touchdowns are highly opportunity and scheme-dependent. Williams has one of the NFL's best and most innovative offensive coordinators. McVay has a long history of producing league-winning players. Credit where credit is due to McVay here for finding a way to keep Williams productive despite such alarming regressions.
Jarquez Hunter college splits inside/outside the tackles with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum pic.twitter.com/3lAqYYAAvo
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) May 26, 2025
Hunter hasn't played a down in the NFL yet, but it would be foolish to assume it's completely impossible to ascertain whether he'll get significant volume this season. Hunter played in the SEC and dominated at Auburn, and was more elusive, more explosive, and more efficient than both Williams and Corum.
In some categories, he left them in the dust. He averaged over one more yard per carry on both inside and outside tackle runs, forced many more missed tackles, and nearly doubled the explosive play rates of both Corum and Williams in inside-tackle runs.
Jarquez Hunter was 18 years old when he made this play btw pic.twitter.com/lG8wnDwSC5
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) July 25, 2025
In all four years in college, Hunter dazzled with big plays and was highly efficient. He's the best solution to the Rams' lack of explosive rushing plays. They were the worst team in the league in explosive rushing, with their RBs picking up just two total runs of 20 or more yards. Williams had two, and Corum had zero.
It thus wouldn't be a surprise to me if Hunter makes this backfield a committee. That would make him a must-draft on its own. But once Hunter starts getting serious work, if he can outproduce Williams on a per-touch basis, the runway could be clear for him to take over the RB1 job. A Williams injury could make this happen, too. I have Hunter in all my leagues now.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, Washington Commanders
Samuel plummeted on draft boards after a disappointing season in 2024. But he's likely to be a great value. His statistical production nosedived after his pneumonia diagnosis. That shouldn't be a surprise. Anyone who's ever had pneumonia knows how brutal an illness it is, and how it can take months to recover fully.
Samuel is 29 years old, meaning he's unlikely to be out of his prime just yet. And he joins an offense ideal for his playmaking abilities. Kliff Kingsbury, the offensive coordinator for the Commanders, has a scheme that's been coined the "Horizontal Raid" and featured QB Jayden Daniels finishing the season with an average depth of target (ADOT) of 7.8 yards, ranking 20th of 38 qualifying quarterbacks.
Deebo Samuel did not look slow on this jet sweep last night 💨 pic.twitter.com/sDDCJSUeTS
— brandon (@JayDanielsMVP) August 19, 2025
Samuel will likely be used in a role similar to that of his 49er days -- as an all-purpose gadget weapon, highly effective in space and at breaking tackles. He could feast on short routes, underneath targets, jet sweeps, toss plays, and handoffs, and should quickly become a heavily targeted and used weapon in the passing and running game.
He could ostensibly step into a WR1B role next to lead wideout Terry McLaurin. And given that contract holdouts often cause WRs to perform more poorly to start the next season, as we saw with Brandon Aiyuk and Ja'Marr Chase early on in 2025, the first few weeks for Samuel could be particularly explosive.
At his current, way-too-low ADP of WR36, he's being drafted way too low. You should snag him in as many leagues as possible at where he's going, which is around rounds 6 and 7. That's a damn steal.
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