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Corbin examines the running back dead zone to identify a few players to target and fade based on the underlying metrics and team context heading into 2025 fantasy football leagues.
The running back dead zone examines players going in the early to middle rounds at the position. We'll use Rounds 4 through 8 as arbitrary markers for running backs going in Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) leagues. However, these running backs have been pushed up the draft board, and they might be riskier than anticipated. The visual below shows all players drafted in Rounds 4-8 in FFPC leagues.
After a certain threshold, the market pushes up running backs more than expected. On the flip side, the draft market might be undervaluing running backs with concerns while overvaluing other players. In the past, it has been fruitful to fade running backs who lacked a receiving profile since they needed to rely on rushing volume, efficiency, and touchdowns. The market has become sharper and smarter over the years, so there might be fewer edges.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
We'll look at a few dead zone running backs to target and fade early in the 2025 redraft process. Per usual, we'll examine the underlying metrics, game splits, and team personnel changes heading into 2025. Which running backs should we target and fade, with reasons for why?
Fantasy Football Dead Zone Running Backs to Target
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Injuries (oblique, calf, and ankle) impacted Walker last season. He had the eighth-highest expected fantasy points (EP/G) in 2024, mainly because he garnered a career-high 14 percent target share. Any time a running back pushes for double-digit rushing and receiving EP/G, that hints at the potential for an elite player.
Among the top 20 running backs averaging 14 EP/G in 2024, four players averaged over nine rushing EP and seven receiving EP/G.
That list included Alvin Kamara, Walker, De'Von Achane, and Breece Hall. Chase Brown would meet those thresholds if we rounded up his 6.6 receiving EP/G. When we examine the historical data using the RotoViz Screener, we find several elite running backs suitable for fantasy purposes, including Christian McCaffrey in 2023, Joe Mixon in 2022, as well as Najee Harris and Kamara in 2021.
Walker should join this group once again, especially with Klint Kubiak joining the Seahawks as offensive coordinator. There could be a Kamara-like season from Walker in his range of outcomes, though we might scale back the elite receiving workload for Walker to be more in the high-end range.
Summary
Walker sneaks into the beginning of the fourth round, and could be going in the third, near Hall, Kyren Williams, and Brown. Fantasy managers should value Walker as an RB1, closer to the Bucky Irving range. However, there might be some hesitancy with the offensive personnel and coaching changes. Take the discounted price on Walker after taking two or three wide receivers in the first few rounds.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
Hubbard handled a heavy workload last season, with a 78 percent snap share, 68 percent rush percentage, and a 12 percent target share. Miles Sanders was second on the team in snaps (34 percent), rush share (20 percent), and target share (eight percent). Unsurprisingly, Hubbard ranked sixth in EP/G, indicating an elite workload.
Jonathon Brooks was expected to eat into Hubbard's workload last season. However, Brooks had a delayed start after recovering from an ACL injury in November 2023. Then, he unfortunately suffered another torn ACL in the same right knee in December 2024. Hubbard saw his rush attempts inside the five-yard line go from 57.9 percent in 2023 to 80.8 percent in 2024.
He fights for yards after contact, with a much-improved yards before contact per attempt in 2024. The Panthers ranked middle of the pack, with the 15th-best adjusted yards before contact per attempt. That shows Hubbard positively impacted his yards before contact and might be able to create yards both before and after contact.
Summary
The Panthers added Rico Dowdle in the offseason and drafted Trevor Etienne on Day 3 in the fourth round. They also drafted Tetairoa McMillan and Jimmy Horn Jr. on offense. Dowdle profiles more as an early-down grinder, who had a respectable eight percent target share and 2.64 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att), yet a below-average missed tackles forced rate (11 percent).
Hubbard has been fairly priced and should handle a hefty workload again with an offense ready to take another step forward.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Warren goes behind rookie Kaleb Johnson in ADP after Harris joined the Chargers. In the past, a running back like Warren might have been pushed up the board because of the potential opportunity. However, the Steelers drafted Johnson on Day 2 in the third round. Warren feels like Tyjae Spears of last year, where we hoped for a larger workload before the team added a significant piece to their backfield.
Warren has garnered a 12-15 percent target share over the past two seasons. That's an elite target percentage for a running back. His rush share fell from 30 percent (2023) to 25 percent (2024), but we need him to have a rush share closer to 40 percent to give us a potential breakout season. For context, Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs have elite target shares and a rush share of around 40 percent.
When Justin Fields was the Steelers' quarterback in Weeks 1 through 6, Harris had a 12 percent target share with Warren at nine percent. Past research indicates that mobile quarterbacks impact the running back target shares. However, with Russell Wilson at quarterback in Weeks 7 through 18, Harris had a nine percent target share, and Warren's increased to 13 percent.
Wilson and Aaron Rodgers should align closer than Fields. Rodgers had the fourth-most attempts on check-down passes in 2024. That suggests Rodgers as the quarterback should be fruitful for the Steelers' running backs, specifically Warren.
Summary
Warren fits just inside the cutoff of the eighth round in FFPC ADP, going behind Tyrone Tracy Jr., Cam Skattebo, Jordan Mason, and Travis Etienne. Johnson came out as RB5 on the spreadsheet among rookie running backs because of his collegiate production and the respectable 12 percent receiving yardage market share in his final season.
We might speculate on how Johnson holds up as a pass blocker because he has the sixth-lowest pass blocking grade among the 38 running back prospects on the spreadsheet. Warren could be in line for a breakout season in 2025, mainly via his receiving production.
Fantasy Football Dead Zone Running Backs to Fade
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans
Mixon had the fourth-highest EP/G in 2024 with the Texans, indicating an elite-RB workload. So, why would we want to fade Mixon as a dead zone running back? Besides Mixon's heavy workload, he saw his missed tackles forced rate fall to 13 percent (2024), down from 19 percent in 2023. He still garnered a high percentage of carries inside the five-yard line (87.5 percent), leading to potential touchdowns.
The Texans ranked 18th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt while having the fifth-best pass rate over expected in 2024. That suggests the Texans prefer to be more pass-heavy in neutral game scripts, and they might have some run and pass-blocking issues, given the Texans' offensive line allowed the fourth-highest pressure rate (37 percent) in 2024.
Summary
The Texans drafted Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third during the 2025 NFL Draft. They also added Christian Kirk in the offseason, leading us to expect the team to lean more into the pass game in 2025. Nick Chubb and Woody Marks in the fourth round were the two most notable backfield additions for the Texans, making us wonder how Mixon could falter.
Marks had the sixth-highest receiving yardage market share (nine percent) throughout his career in the running back prospect class.
Chubb served in his early down grinder role, averaging a 55 percent rush share and a lowly three percent target share. The efficiency has been in Chubb's favor, ranking in the top eight in fantasy points over expectation per game (FPOE/G) from 2020 to 2022 before his injury early in 2023. It might be laughable to fade Mixon after having an EP/G ranking inside the top 10 in six out of eight career seasons.
Be cautious investing in Mixon at his price in the fifth round.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
We discussed Pacheco as a fade in dynasty leagues, and it's the same premise in redraft formats. There's a good chance Pacheco's recovery from a broken lower leg contributed to his advanced stats taking a step back, most notably his four percent evasion rate in 2024. In Pacheco's rookie season, he garnered a 58 percent rush share and a 10 percent target share.
They mixed in Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2023. However, Pacheco's usage dropped to a 40 percent rush share while garnering four percent of the team's targets in Weeks 13-18, when he returned from the injury. Kareem Hunt shared backfield attempts (36 percent) with a low five percent target share in the final five contests with Pacheco healthy.
Summary
The Chiefs re-signed Hunt, signed Elijah Mitchell, and drafted Brashard Smith in the seventh round. Those might be indications that the Chiefs feel good about Pacheco, especially with the reports of him gaining weight and looking physically better. With Pacheco being valued as an RB3 in drafts around pick 80 in FFPC leagues, the concerns about him being a dead zone running back without the receiving profile might be baked into the cost.
In the final five-to-six games, with Pacheco healthy to close the season, the Chiefs ranked second in neutral game script pass rate (65 percent). That's much higher than the Chiefs' 57 percent neutral game script pass rate across the season. It could be partly because Xavier Worthy was garnering more targets, and the Chiefs ranked 22nd in adjusted yards before contact per attempt, suggesting some run-blocking issues.
Pacheco might be a touchdown-dependent rusher who lacks the receiving volume and efficiency.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants
Tracy played four seasons as a wide receiver at Iowa, then transitioned to running back at Purdue. The Giants leaned on Devin Singletary early in the season, leading to him having four consecutive games of 15 or more opportunities (rushes plus targets). After Singletary's groin injury, Tracy took over to produce four RB1 weeks.
From Weeks 5-18, Tracy took on a hefty workload, garnering a 69 percent snap share, 56 percent rush percentage, and 11 percent target share. Singletary returned but took a backseat to Tracy, with a 22 percent rush share and a four percent target percentage. One of Tracy's closest comparisons was Rachaad White based on his Year 1 production.
Tracy posted an above-average 17 percent missed tackles forced rate. However, Tracy garnered a lowly 25 percent of the team's carries inside the five-yard line. That tells us the Giants didn't quite trust Tracy to grind out yards near the goalline. Meanwhile, Tracy flashed some explosiveness, with 5.2 percent of his carries going for 15+ yards.
Summary
The Giants drafted Skattebo in the fourth round as their main running back addition. Skattebo garnered a heavy workload, with a 79 percent Running Back Dominator (No. 7) and an 18 percent receiving yardage market share (No. 1) in 2024. Skattebo can handle rushing and receiving opportunities if Tracy falters, and they don't elevate Singletary to garner more work.
Some could argue that Tracy might be a discounted version of Warren, with less competition. That's especially true since the Giants added Wilson and Jameis Winston at quarterback in free agency, plus they drafted Jaxson Dart in the first round. Theoretically, Wilson and Winston should help keep the running back targets afloat since Dart might be more mobile, leading to fewer receiving opportunities.
The market has been torn because Tracy and Skattebo go back-to-back as eighth-round picks. Fading Tracy is partly because we're still in the WR target window during drafts. Some notable receivers available near Tracy include Josh Downs, Khalil Shakir, Deebo Samuel Sr., Jayden Reed, and Emeka Egbuka.
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