Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 2025 Fantasy Football Busts and Overvalued Draft Picks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a potential fantasy football bust and overvalued draft pick to avoid in 2025. Read the fantasy football outlook and draft advice for the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver.

RotoBaller Ranking (half-PPR): WR15

Fantasy Draft Analysis: I have quite a few problems with Jaxon Smith-Njigba this season. For starters, he won't be on a massively pass-heavy offense like he was last season. The Seahawks passed the ball at one of the highest rates in the league, exceeding expectations, leading to the second-year pro often receiving a high volume of targets.

Last year the Seattle Seahawks had the 5th highest pass rate over expectation in the league. All while Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf played through injury. SEA's new OC, Klint Kubiak, passed at a way lower rate in 2024. He's a super run-heavy OC. Bad news for Jaxon Smith-Njigba pic.twitter.com/VPHtCKKVAf

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 27, 2025

Add to this the big downgrade in quarterback -- Seattle traded away QB Geno Smith and signed Sam Darnold -- and you have a recipe for a disappointing season from JSN. Darnold was awful under pressure last season, and now he'll play behind one of the league's worst offensive lines over the past decade.

While Smith graded worse under pressure, it's important to note the difference in offensive talent. Minnesota was far better across the board, with receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison easily forming a far superior group than JSN and a hobbled DK Metcalf.

Had Metcalf not been hurt, I imagine JSN's value would be way lower, as his "breakout" season wouldn't have really happened. But here we are. I can't stomach drafting him in any leagues at his ADP. Doesn't help that the team signed another slot receiver, Cooper Kupp, to a three-year deal.

Smith-Njigba produced very heavily from the slot, and slot usage is a cheat code for fantasy football production. A reduction in those snaps wouldn't be great for JSN.

- John Johnson

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