The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who to Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 14)

June 30, 2025

The Cut List for Week 14 of 2025. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players who you may want to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 14 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those unfamiliar, this is our weekly article examining players whom fantasy managers might consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who warrant a closer look.

We'll examine players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for potential replacements, and individuals on the hot seat who are worth holding onto ... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Zach Eflin - SP, Baltimore Orioles - 61% rostered

Eflin featured in The Cut List four weeks ago. Back then, I said he was worth holding for a bit longer. He'd only made seven starts at that stage due to a right lat strain putting him on the IL (injured list) for more than a month.

The table below shows Eflin's numbers when he was last featured and what he has done since then. As we can see, there's been no improvement in his production. And there's a chance he winds up back on the IL soon.

Before we dig into the numbers, it's worth noting Eflin had another stinker last night. He managed to complete just one inning before being removed due to a lower back strain. That might explain the four earned runs (five hits) Eflin allowed in the first inning against the Rays.

Eflin's elevated ERA was justified back at the end of May. Since then, he's been a bit unlucky. The problem is, Eflin still hasn't been good enough to warrant being rostered on so many fantasy teams. A higher ERA is tolerable if a pitcher is offering some other value to offset it.

Eflin has six wins from his 12 starts. The Orioles have been a disappointment this year, and it's a minor miracle that Eflin has won half of his starts. That pace won't be sustained. Even though Eflin has increased his strikeout rate (K%), his 15.6% K% this year ranks in the sixth percentile.

Eflin still has excellent control, evidenced by his 4.1% BB% (walk rate), which ranks in the 96th percentile. That's only going to help his WHIP if Eflin doesn't get hit so much. A .423 BABIP over his last five starts suggests some bad luck recently. But as a pitch-to-contact guy, Eflin will have an elevated BABIP.

Again, if Eflin's luck evens out, his numbers still aren't going to provide much fantasy value. Eflin's recent xFIP does hint that he should have had better results this month. But without lucking into some more wins, Eflin just doesn't carry enough fantasy appeal.

Verdict: Back in the Week 10 edition of The Cut List, I said: "The clock is ticking, and if Eflin's ERA and underlying numbers haven't improved after a few more starts, then we can reconsider things." While his underlying numbers have improved a bit, the results have yet to follow. Eflin's surface stats will improve, but he lacks any upside except in the deepest leagues. Whether or not he avoids the IL doesn't make a difference to his fantasy outlook. Eflin is just a drop.

Wilmer Flores - 1B, San Francisco Giants - 35% rostered

Flores had one of the best starts to the season among all hitters. By the end of April, his seven home runs were tied for the 18th most in the majors. Only Teoscar Hernandez (32) and Aaron Judge (32) had more RBI than Flores (28) in the season's first month.

That made Flores one of the most popular pickups in the early goings. Since then, things haven't gone so well for the veteran Giants infielder. Flores has only homered four times since April 22. Three of those home runs came in one game on May 16.

Flores tallied eight RBI in that May 16 performance. Despite that, he's still failed to double his April RBI total to this point. Flores has driven in 27 runs over the last two months. While Flores has maintained a consistent batting average and on-base percentage this year, his power has regressed.

Flores ranks 21st among first basemen and 98th among all hitters (according to Yahoo!). You may think he holds fantasy value because of that. But his numbers are being propped up by what he did in April. Over the last 30 days, Flores ranks 60th at the position (standard 5x5 rotisserie scoring).

We have also seen a drop in playing time for Flores. Acquiring Rafael Devers has caused a logjam, with the former Red Sox slugger occupying the DH (designated hitter) spot. As a result, Dominic Smith has been sharing some first base duties with Flores.

Verdict: An expected drop in power has now been accompanied by a drop in playing time. Without an injury, it's difficult to see a route for Flores to retain a regular starting role. Even in deep leagues, it's time to move on from the Giants veteran first baseman.

Hold For Now

Bryan Reynolds - OF, Pittsburgh Pirates - 79% rostered

Not a week has gone by without someone asking if they should drop Reynolds. His numbers make it difficult to argue against that. After 78 games, Reynolds has nine homers, 44 RBI, 29 runs, and three steals with a .235/.303/.386 slash line. But argue against dropping him, I shall!

The reason I have been so bullish on Reynolds (even suggesting he's about to break out as recently as this past Monday) is his underlying numbers.

Which outfielder is on the verge of breaking out? Our staff picks, Part 2...@NichoRoessler: Wilyer Abreu@Baseball_Jimbo: Bryan Reynolds@ElliottBaasBB: Kyle Stowers@JRRupp5: Brenton Doyle@heistjm: Colton Cowser pic.twitter.com/t7J2yOwbT5

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) June 23, 2025

Not only does Reynolds have a very good quality of contact numbers, but his expected stats are eye-catching, too. Of the 256 qualified hitters, only two have a bigger difference between their SLG (.386) and xSLG (.520), and their wOBA (.302) and xwOBA (.370).

While a player's Statcast Profile isn't the be-all-and-end-all of their performance, Reynolds' does scream out that he's been unlucky so far.

Reynolds missed some time last week after being placed on the paternity list (congratulations to the Reynolds family). He's been heating up since returning. After a 0-for-4 performance in his first game back, Reynolds has gone 11-for-27 with five doubles and a home run in the last six games.

It's unlikely we'll see the Pirates offense be anything better than average this year. That will harm Reynolds' fantasy value. In leagues that only require teams to play three outfielders, Reynolds is borderline rosterable. Although it's at least worth riding this hot streak for as long as possible.

In all formats, I'd be giving Reynolds at least until the All-Star break. His underlying numbers always suggested Reynolds would turn things around. If this week is anything to go by, Reynolds could end up having one of the best second halves of the 2025 season.

Jung Hoo Lee - OF, San Francisco Giants - 62% rostered

It's fair to say that so far, Lee hasn't lived up to the hype and expectations that accompanied him from South Korea. Last year, Lee suffered a season-ending torn labrum in mid-May, restricting him to just 37 games in his first MLB season. This year, Lee has remained healthy, but his numbers have been disappointing.

After 80 games, Lee has a .246/.315/.402 slash line with six home runs, 34 RBI, 46 runs, and six stolen bases. Whilst nothing in Lee's fantasy numbers stands out, he does still rank 55th among all outfield-eligible players (according to Yahoo!).

Lee came to the majors with a reputation as a contact hitter. Someone difficult to strike out, who took plenty of walks, and could hit for a high batting average. In the KBO (Korea Baseball Organization), Lee had a .340/.407/.491 slash line, 7.7% K%, and 9.7% BB% across seven seasons.

While no one expected Lee to put up those kinds of numbers with the Giants, a .246 batting average is a disappointment. However, Lee also has a .284 xBA (82nd percentile). That is far more in line with what was expected and almost identical to his preseason ATC projection (.285 batting average).

Lee has also shown excellent plate discipline. Lee's 10.7% K% and 12.9% Whiff% both rank in the 96th percentile. Lee also has a better-than-league-average 8.6% BB% (52nd percentile), so he has been getting on base a decent amount.

It's those skills that kept Lee hitting in the top three spots of the Giants lineup. And it's that reason he has a solid amount of counting stats. Lee ranks tied-17th among all outfielders in runs scored and tied-46th in RBI. If anything, should Lee's batting average increase as expected, those numbers will rise.

Lee has struggled since a hot start to the season. He's hitting just .156/.290/.299 this month, which has resulted in him moving down the batting order. His elite defense will keep Lee in the starting lineup, at least. That, and the $113M contract he has.

70 percent of the Earth is covered in water, the rest is covered by Jung Hoo Lee 😤 pic.twitter.com/l9xpanfLTu

— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) June 12, 2025

Given his expected batting average and contact skills, Lee should be able to turn things around. That should result in him moving back into the prime spots of the Giants lineup. If that doesn't happen soon, Lee's fantasy value will end up being that of a deep league option only.

On the Hot Seat

Spencer Torkelson - 1B, Detroit Tigers - 80% rostered

Scholars will write novels about Torkelson in the years to come. He has become something of an enigma. He seems to have an uncanny ability to perform well only when the large majority of the population has given up on him. This year is no different.

Torkelson was drafted by the Tigers in 2020 with the No. 1 pick. After hitting 30 homers in 121 minor league games at three levels in 2021, expectations for the prospect were high. Torkelson made his major league debut in 2022. He struggled, hitting just .203/.285/.319 with eight homers in 110 games.

Given he was still very raw, that wasn't a complete surprise. But few predicted what was to come next. In 2023, Torkelson hit .233/.313/.446 with 31 homers, 94 RBI, 88 runs, and three steals in 159 games. The fantasy community was all in on Torkelson again heading into last year.

In 2024, he disappointed. In 92 games, Torkelson hit .219/.295/.374 with 10 home runs, 37 RBI, 45 runs, and no stolen bases. The struggles saw him demoted in June. Torkelson returned in August and finished the season well, with six homers and a .248/.338/.444 slash line over the final 38 games of 2024.

That wasn't enough to get fantasy managers on board again. Torkelson went largely undrafted in 2025. So, what did he do? He hit .239/.347/.517 with 14 homers, 42 RBI, 35 runs, and one stolen base in the first two months of this season. Everyone was back in on Torkelson.

Of course, he has then proceeded to struggle in June. Torkelson is hitting .205/.300/.372 this month, with three homers, eight RBI, 11 runs, and no steals. Why the Torkelson history lesson?

Well, his unpredictability makes it incredibly difficult to know what to do with him. Just look at his rolling xwOBA in the majors. The peaks and troughs are evident for all to see.

The one thing we do know about Torkelson is that he doesn't hit for a high average. Even during his stellar 2023 campaign, Torkelson only had a better than .250 batting average in a month twice. That will harm his fantasy value in most leagues, regardless of whether he's in a peak or trough.

When Torkelson is on form, he's one of the best power options in baseball. Only Pete Alonso (18) has more homers at the first base position. And given the Tigers offense is now good, that's enabled Torkelson to rank in the top 10 at the position for RBI and runs.

As frustrating as Torkelson's June has been, I'm still holding (even if he is on The Hot Seat). I can't say he can be trusted, as outlined already. But it is worth noting that his 2025 has some similarities to his 2023. Two years ago, Torkelson's .196 batting average in June was his worst over a calendar month.

This June, Torkelson is set to register what will likely be his worst batting average in any month of the season. He went on to hit 19 homers after the All-Star break (72 games). I wouldn't bet against something similar this year, just as the fantasy community is starting to doubt Torkelson once more.

You're not getting speed from the first base position. And other than a slightly low batting average, Torkelson is a big asset in homers, RBI, and runs. Provided Torkelson's June struggles don't drag through July, he's well worth holding. Even in shallow leagues.

If we reach the All-Star break and he's still stuttering, then it's probably only worth giving him a couple more weeks to sort things out. Just keep in mind that the moment we all give up on Torkelson, he'll remind us all why the Tigers used the first overall pick in the 2020 draft on him.

Reader Requests

As always, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone you want to include on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or in the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Cedric Mullins - OF, Baltimore Orioles - 63% rostered

We've already looked at two outfielders this week. We have another three who were requested for inclusion, starting with Mullins. By now, it should go without saying that his 30/30 season in 2021 seems to be a complete outlier.

While Mullins has reached 30 stolen bases twice since then, he's not come close to hitting 30 homers in a season. After ending April with six homers and five steals, fantasy managers were once again dreaming about a 30/30 season. May and June put paid to those hopes.

After 65 games, Mullins has 12 homers, 38 RBI, 32 runs, and eight steals. He's hitting .210/.295/.412. With a .211 xBA (fourth percentile), Mullins' batting average is unlikely to improve by much, if at all. If we look at his rolling xwOBA this year, we can see he's been in steady decline.

The low batting average is why Mullins only ranks 64th among outfielders on Yahoo! If we check each of the four counting stats, Mullins fares well. At the position, he ranks tied-31st in home runs, tied-37th in RBI, tied-58th in runs, and tied-42nd in stolen bases.

Even when the Orioles scored 22 runs on Friday, Mullins only went 1-for-5 (with a walk). Thankfully for fantasy managers, he salvaged his performance with three RBI and a run scored. One RBI came from his bases-loaded walk.

Mullins missed some time at the start of June with a hamstring strain. He's hitting just .140/.197/.298 since returning from the IL. Most worryingly, Mullins hasn't attempted a stolen base since the injury.

Given speed is such a big asset of his, that is a trend that cannot continue if Mullins is to remain fantasy relevant. Mullins is worth holding in all but shallower leagues. But keep an eye on his steals. If there are lingering issues from the injury and he's not running, Mullins' value drops significantly.

George Springer - OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 62% rostered

Springer must have taken exception to being requested for inclusion this week. Springer enters today on the back of a seven-game hitting streak. In that time, he's gone 13-for-26 with one home run, eight RBI, seven runs, and stolen two bases.

It is worth noting that Springer's only extra-base hit in this hot spell was the home run. His 85.6 MPH average exit velocity during the last seven games is also lower than his season average (90.3 MPH). So, it's probably not wise to think he's back to his best and about to have a huge second half.

That being said, Springer's underlying numbers have suggested better days were ahead. Like Reynolds, Springer's expected numbers are much better than his actual numbers. And Springer has been making hard contact for most of the year, as we can see from his Statcast Profile.

The torrid pace Springer is on won't last. But it has catapulted him to the 23rd-ranked outfielder on Yahoo! (fourth over the last seven days). After the week he has had, I almost reconsidered including Springer in The Cut List. But he should act as an important reminder.

Even though we've reached the midway point of the season, a player can turn around their year in the blink of an eye. This is why it's important to look at more than just a player's surface stats before deciding what to do about him. There's no reason to believe Springer won't end the year as a top-40 outfielder.

Kerry Carpenter - OF, Detroit Tigers - 60% rostered

The Tigers have the best record in the American League. They have also scored more runs than any other team in the AL. So, it might come as a surprise that Carpenter, who has almost exclusively hit in the top third of the lineup, only ranks 53rd among all outfielders in fantasy.

In 77 games, Carpenter has 15 home runs, 30 RBI, 39 runs, and one stolen base, with a .252/.281/.473 slash line. We've seen some regression this year, with Carpenter set to put up a career-low slash line. His 109 wRC+ is also set to be a career-low.

Carpenter has a .255 xBA (42nd percentile), so his batting average is where it should be. He has a .515 xSLG (85th percentile), meaning we should have seen slightly more power from Carpenter. Unfortunately, Comerica Park is below average for left-handed hitters (LHH), according to Statcast Park Factors.

Still, we would have had more counting stats from someone hitting in the heart of one of the best offenses in baseball. Among all outfielders, Carpenter's 30 RBI rank tied 65th at the position, and his 39 runs rank tied 36th.

Carpenter did spend a significant amount of time as the Tigers' leadoff hitter. However, his 2.5% BB% (first percentile) meant Carpenter was far from an ideal table-setter. Hitting third in the lineup, as he has done for much of June, is a better fit for the team and Carpenter.

It's just a shame that Carpenter has only hit .203/.227/.484 this month. Four of his five June home runs came in one game, back on June 2. But the other two have come this week, including yesterday's no-doubter off Bailey Ober.

⚾Kerry Carpenter! HR (15)

6/28/25 @ DET, ⬇️ 3rd
vs RHP Bailey Ober

108.9 MPH / 31° / 424 ft to RF
Off a 83.9 MPH slider

▶️It's a home run in 30/30 parks.◀️

📺: https://t.co/kAnzM8MVTl pic.twitter.com/m6TyapFNNu

— Home Run Report (@homerunreport) June 28, 2025

After going three weeks without an RBI following his June 2 performance, many fantasy managers have been dropping him. This week may have just made a few of them head back to waivers and pick Carpenter up again.

Carpenter seldom faces LHP. He's only had 39 plate appearances against lefties this year. Even though it's a small sample, his .211/.205/.395 and 59 wRC+ against southpaws won't get him more chances against them. He's only a career .204/.267/.325 hitter against LHP, after all.

Whilst the Tigers offense and his spot in the lineup are big positives for Carpenter's fantasy value, his platoon situation and home ballpark are negatives. What we're left with is someone worth rostering in deeper leagues but still worth holding in all daily lineup leagues for when Detroit faces a starting RHP.

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