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Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/17/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. James Wood, Seiya Suzuki, Shohei Ohtani, and more.
Rivalry Weekend rolls on with a full Saturday of Major League Baseball as all 30 teams continue their weekend series. Even without some key hitters' parks in use, there are plenty of options to choose from when searching for the long ball. Our focus today will be on hitters in favorable matchups with optimal hitting conditions, whether that be due to the park, matchup, or weather conditions.
We have some fun home run bets today, with several stars finding themselves in great hitting spots. I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our four hitters to go deep.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, May 17, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props, because home runs are almost always long-shot props.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/17/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Saturday, May 17:
- Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
- James Wood, Washington Nationals
- Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox
- Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Seiya Suzuki OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+260 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The wind was blowing out to left field on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field, and the two teams combined for 16 runs on 26 hits with three home runs. On Saturday afternoon, the wind is expected to be significant once again at around 20 miles per hour, but this time, it's forecast to be out to right field.
Suzuki didn't homer on Friday but did have a pair of doubles and two barrels. He has a 55.9% hard-hit rate and 17.6% barrel rate over his last 11 games, with two homers in his last four games bringing his total for the season to 11. He homered twice against the Marlins to start the homestand, including this shot on Tuesday.
Seiya Suzuki's 10th home run of the year makes it a 5-run @Cubs 5th! pic.twitter.com/MnrG4CZv0z
— MLB (@MLB) May 13, 2025
Suzuki and the Cubs face Sean Burke and the White Sox on Saturday afternoon. Burke has allowed eight homers in nine games this season, evenly split between righties and lefties. He didn't give up any homers in his last start but issued five free passes and only lasted four innings against the Marlins.
The White Sox bullpen will also be a favorable matchup for Suzuki, who makes sense at this number as a play in the afternoon game. I like the balance of risk and reward at this number, given the favorable conditions and matchup in Chicago.
James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Wood and the Nationals rallied to win on Friday against the Orioles, and Wood delivered his 12th homer of the season to tie the game 3-3 in the eighth inning.
James Wood Delivers a game tying HR!
106.8 MPH
30 Degree LA
421 FT
75.5 MPH Bat Speed
.930 xBA
HR in 28/30 BallparksHe now has 12 HR and a 152 wRC+ over 202 PA. He’s still just 22 years old!#Natitude pic.twitter.com/9ZTTh1Dhag
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) May 17, 2025
Wood has three homers in his last 11 games with a hard-hit rate of 80.0% over that span and a 23.3% barrel rate. His 59% hard-hit rate on the season ranks sixth in the majors, and his average exit velocity is also in the top 25, according to Statcast.
On Saturday, he takes on Kyle Gibson of the Orioles. Wood is 3-for-4 with a double and two walks against Gibson in the past, so he seems to see the ball well against him. Gibson has served up seven home runs in just 11 2/3 innings this season.
Left-handed hitters like Wood have hit four home runs against him in only 28 plate appearances. All four of those homers to lefties have come at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, where Wood will look to keep crushing the ball on Saturday.
The weather should also be a positive factor for Wood since the forecast calls for temperatures near 90 degrees with winds out to right field at 10-15 mph.
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Alex Bregman OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+275 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bregman homered in back-to-back games earlier this week against the Tigers but came up empty on Friday night at Fenway against the Braves, going 0-for-3 with a hit-by-pitch and a run scored. For all the hype around how well his game fits Fenway Park, he actually has been more productive this season on the road.
In his 45 games, he has 11 home runs and a .415 wOBA with a 48.2% hard-hit rate and 11.3% barrel rate that would both be new career highs.
Back-to-back games with a dinger for Breggy! pic.twitter.com/ylnlQgf3yv
— Red Sox (@RedSox) May 14, 2025
On Saturday night at Fenway, he'll face Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes. Holmes is 2-3 in nine games with nine home runs allowed in 45 2/3 innings. Holmes has a 6.38 ERA and 6.71 FIP on the road, allowing five home runs in 18 1/3 innings. Six of his nine home runs allowed have come to right-handed batters, which is why I'm rolling with Bregman instead of Rafael Devers in this matchup.
Bregman has seven of his 11 homers in his last 20 games, and he is in a favorable matchup to deliver on Saturday night for the Sox as long as the rain holds off.
Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+195 DraftKings Sportbook)
Ohtani is absolutely on fire right now and continued his impressive run of production against his former team on Friday night.
Your Major League home run leader: Shohei Ohtani 🦄
(via @Dodgers)pic.twitter.com/vJJy9XOIZe
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 17, 2025
Ohtani has 10 home runs in his last 15 games after that blast and leads the majors with 16 homers on the season, pulling ahead of Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber. Ohtani has an average exit velocity of exactly 100.0 miles per hour over his last 15 games with a 74.5% hard-hit rate and 36.2% barrel rate.
He's crushing everything he sees right now, so he is almost matchup-proof at this point. He will face lefty Tyler Anderson on Saturday night, and that lefty-lefty matchup may be why the odds are still near +200. Only two of Ohtani's 16 homers have come off lefties, even though he is hitting a healthy .352 with a .434 wOBA in that same-handed split.
Anderson has actually been more hittable by lefties than righties this season, though. Lefties have hit four of the seven homers he has allowed in just 41 plate appearances while posting a .452 wOBA against him.
Ohtani has never had a problem against Anderson in the past, going 4-for-7 against the lefty in their past meetings with three triples and a home run. The matchup is much better than it looks at first glance, and there's no need to be scared off by facing Anderson as the Dodgers look to bounce back and level this version of the Freeway Series.
Ohtani is seeing the ball so well right now that he's worth taking a shot on Saturday night, even though the odds are a little shorter than most of the home run props I try to chase. He's so dialed in right now that he's almost unstoppable, so keep riding his current heater since there's no better hitter in baseball.
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