A Tale of Two Seasons - Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Edition (Part I)

February 10, 2025

In Part 1 of his series, Robert Lorge looks at several wide receivers with widely different performances from the first and second half of the 2024 NFL Season. He identifies those players, look at those splits, and pin points their cause to determine which ones are most likely to repeat in 2025.

The NFL season is long and can result in players performing differently throughout the year. Sometimes, a player starts hot but fades down the stretch. Other times, they start cold but catch fire late in the year. Identifying these can not only be interesting but can also help fantasy managers understand who to buy or sell going into the 2025 NFL season.

This series will identify 13 receivers who, while they only played one season in 2024 (obviously), had two different seasons baked in a single year. Identifying the splits can be fun, but the critical and useful part is identifying the "why" behind the splits so fantasy managers can know how to act.

This is the first entry of a four-part series, so look for the following three entries. If you want to take advantage of our great premium tools, please use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Fantasy managers certainly remember how poorly Reed played down the stretch. This being the last thing that happened, fantasy managers are often prone to forgetting how well Reed was playing early in the season. Recency bias is prevalent in the fantasy community. If a player ends the season on a hot streak, they're more likely to be ranked higher the following season, and vice versa if they finished poorly.

Reed undoubtedly left a bad taste in fantasy manager's mouths. He had six games with fewer than 35 yards in the last eight games. Conversely, he had 110 or more yards in three of the season's first nine games.

This is even more impressive when you consider that Jordan Love missed two and a half games during this period. When you look at the chart below, you'll see just how widely different his two seasons were.

In Weeks 1-9, Reed was performing as the kind of receiver fantasy managers were hoping for when they drafted him. He had an elite 2.62-yard-per-route run average and was producing 12.8 half-PPR PPG.

He was on pace to finish with 88 targets, 68 receptions, and 1,171 yards. That's not widely different than the 82-reception, 1,149-yard season that Ladd McConkey had. The good times, however, were not here to stay.

Reed's production fell off a cliff. His yard-per-route run average dropped to 1.66, and his half-PPR PPG plummeted to 6.8. To put these numbers into perspective, DeVonta Smith averaged 12.7 half-PPR PPG. That's what Reed scored in the first nine weeks of the season.

Among receivers with at least 50 targets, Reed's 2.62-yard-per-route run average over the first nine games would have ranked eighth, tied with Chris Godwin and right ahead of McConkey and Brian Thomas Jr.

His 6.8 half-PPR PPG average in the second half of the season was the same as Kayshon Boutte of the New England Patriots. His 1.66-yard-per-route run average would have ranked 66th out of 85 receivers with at least 50 targets. He went from a WR2 to a completely unstartable player. So, what changed?

In the first nine games of the season, Love and Malik Willis averaged 36.8 attempts per game, 280 yards, and 2.0 touchdowns. Over 17 games, that would equate to. 626 pass attempts, 4,760 yards, and 34 touchdowns.

From Weeks 10-18, Love and Willis averaged 25 pass attempts per game, 217 yards, and 1.6 touchdowns. Over 17 games, these averages would result in 425 pass attempts, 3,689 yards, and 27 touchdowns. We're talking about 201 fewer pass attempts, 1,071 fewer yards, and seven fewer touchdowns. That's significant!

That explains why Reed's target, reception, and yard per game averages dropped. It doesn't explain the drastic decline in his efficiency. We saw significant decreases in his catch rate, yards per target, yards per catch, target share, target rate, yard per route run, and first downs per route run. Now, fantasy managers must determine who and what player Reed is.

Matt LaFleur clearly moved his offense away from the pass in the second half of the season. In Weeks 1-9, the Packers had a 51% pass rate in neutral gamescripts. From Weeks 10-18, that decreased to 44%. That's a drastic change.

In Weeks 1-9, while inside the red zone during neutral gamescripts, Green Bay had a 52% pass rate. That decreased to a whopping 35% from Weeks 10-18! Fantasy managers must ask whether they expect the offensive strategy that the Packers ended the season with to continue in 2025.

It'll be hard to trust this version of the Packers' offense. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect either version of Reed next year. The reality is he's likely to perform like a receiver in between the two extremes. That puts Reed in the WR3 category. However, if the Packers make a significant addition at receiver, Reed's value will drop.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

These teammates had equal but opposite seasons. While everyone remembers JSN's emergence as Seattle's No. 1 receiver over the second half of the season, no one remembers Metcalf's dominance in the early half of the year.

Metcalf sustained an MCL strain in his knee in Week 7. This caused him to miss the next two games.

Later in the season, Metcalf routinely nursed a shoulder requiring weekly practice maintenance. Could Metcalf's injuries be why we saw such significant splits from each player? Could that be the real reason for Smith-Njigba's ascension? We can't know for sure, but their splits from Weeks 1-7 and 8-18 look the same but opposite.

It's important to remember that Metcalf was inactive in Weeks 8 and 9, so JSN did not have to compete with him during those two weeks in the second sample. However, plenty of wild numbers remain to consider between these two splits.

Let's start with their yard per game average. In Weeks 1-7, Metcalf averaged 81.1 yards per game compared to JSN's average of 45.6. In Weeks 8-18, JSN averaged an identical 81.1 yards per game, and Metcalf averaged 53.0 yards per game, very similar to JSN's earlier average of 45.6.

Those aren't the only similarities we see. We notice another eerily similar but opposite split with their target rates. Metcalf had a 23% target per route run average in Weeks 1-7, which fell to 20% in Weeks 8-18. JSN's splits are very similar, averaging a 20% target per route run rate in Weeks 1-7 and increasing that to 25% in Weeks 8-18.

Even their half-PPR PPG splits are pretty alike. Metcalf started the season averaging 12.6 half-PPR PPG over the first seven weeks before scoring 8.7 half-PPR PPG in the second half of the season. JSN averaged 8.4 half-PPR PPG in Weeks 1-7.

In Weeks 8-18, JSN averaged 14.5 half-PPR PPG. However, if we use Weeks 11-18, when Metcalf was back in the lineup, JSN's half-PPR PPG average falls to 12.7. Both splits are the same but opposite. It's almost uncanny how similar their splits are.

The question we're left to ponder is which split we should believe. The answer, as with Reed's, is somewhere in the middle. That isn't how these two players are valued in super early 2025 rankings. JSN is often ranked in the top 15, while Metcalf is around the WR30 range. Did JSN become Seattle's new No. 1 receiver, or was Metcalf just not 100% to end the 2024 season?

When Metcalf was on the field, JSN averaged 10.6 half-PPR PPG. That's the same as Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, and Keenan Allen. It's not bad, but it's a far cry from the top-15 ranking he's currently carrying.

Fantasy managers should be cautious about ranking JSN too high. Metcalf is 27, so expecting him to fade away isn't wise. Something appears off when looking at his production from Weeks 8-18 compared to his career averages.

It would make sense, then, that Metcalf may have still been dealing with lingering adverse effects of the knee injury that negatively affected his play. On the other hand, Metcalf already looks like a great rebound candidate to target in fantasy drafts.

Davante Adams, New York Jets

Adams is one of the exceptions to the split seasons we're discussing in this series. He played with the Las Vegas Raiders the first three weeks before missing the next three weeks.

He was eventually traded to the New York Jets, teaming up with his old teammate, Aaron Rodgers. Adams is mainly being dismissed due to his age, as the fantasy community tends to do. He's 32 now, and most expect him to hit the wall. However, Adams led a reasonably injury-free career, and receivers tend to age more gracefully than other positions.

The other thing to consider with Adams is that his game isn't predicated on speed or elite athletic attributes. He's not a Giannis Antetokounmpo type of receiver, if you will. No, Adams is more like Stephen Curry. He's a technician. He may not be the biggest, the fastest, or the strongest, but he has flawless technique and is one of the most gifted players in his craft.

These players tend to age more gracefully than those who significantly depend on their physical attributes because they're just like everyone else once that's gone or diminished. Adams and Curry still have their elite technique to fall back on once their physical attributes begin to dissipate.

So, before you dismiss Adams or think he's cooked, let me show you some numbers. The following chart is from Weeks 8-18, one week after the trade that sent him to the Jets. Why didn't I use Week 7? I could have. It wouldn't have widely altered the numbers, but he was traded mid-week, and it seemed fair to at least give him a whole week to get acclimated to a new team, coach, and offense.

The 15.8 half-PPR PPG that Adams averaged from Weeks 8-18 was higher than Amon-Ra St. Brown's 15.5 half-PPR PPG average for the 2024 season. It would have ranked as the WR4 last year. His 2.45-yard-per-route run average during this time was the same yard-per-route run average that Ja'Marr Chase had last year during his triple-crown season.

Adams's averaged 11.3% first downs per route run. Chase averaged 10.7% first downs per route last season. Adams averaged 6.5 yards after the catch per reception in Weeks 8-18. Chase averaged 6.28 yards after the catch per reception last year. Do I have your attention yet?

Things haven't been easy for Adams since he left Green Bay in 2022. He's had four head coaches (Josh McDaniels, Antonio Pierce, Robert Saleh, and Jeff Ulbrich) and has played on two teams. He's had multiple offensive coordinators. He's also caught passes from Derek Carr, Aidan O'Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, a diminished version of Rodgers, and Tyrod Taylor.

These are not your optimal playing conditions for any receiver. Consider, then, just how impressive the following chart is with how similar his numbers are to those of these other players.

Simply put, Adams can still flat-out ball with the best of 'em. The numbers support this. For goodness' sake, he was a First-Team All-Pro in his first year away from Green Bay during a season where the Raiders fired their head coach after one season. The dude can still perform at an elite level.

Assuming the Jets cut him because of his high cap number, he'll be a player fantasy managers need to keep their eye on to see where he winds up. The right landing spot could be all it takes for him to become one of 2025's best value picks.

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