Round 4 PGA DFS Showdown Slate Picks - Farmers Insurance Open 2025

This week, the 2025 PGA Tour season has arrived in La Jolla, California, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. The first three rounds have been characterized by blustery and unpredictable conditions. Low scores were posted during the first round, while the second round saw historically high scores. Round 3 aligned more with expectations, setting the stage for an exciting final round. Heading into Round 4, Harris English has taken the lead at 9-under with a 6-under in the third round, while Andrew Novak is at 8-under.

As was discussed ad nauseam coming into the week, avoiding bogeys and par-5 scoring is the ultimate weapon. The wind will show its teeth again this afternoon so golfers who tee off early are our targets. Even though we receive points for a place in final-round showdown, keep in mind that we still have to play the game and birdies are king.

Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.

Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times

Choosing the right moments to attack is key to success this week. With unfavorable conditions for Round 4, golfers will do well to avoid bogeys and strategically find opportunities for birdies.

Round 4 Strategy

The mindset for final-round showdowns is to not pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.

Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.

$10,000+

Favorite Play: In Round 3, Hideki Matsuyama gained 3.40 strokes on approach but lost 0.98 strokes putting. Historically, Matsuyama has been one of the top scorers in Round 4, so expect him to put on a clinic tomorrow.

Other Options: Ludvig Aberg

$9,000+

Favorite Play: Taylor Pendrith had a disappointing performance in Round 3, where he lost 0.31 strokes on approach and 2.08 strokes putting. While he hasn't historically been a top Round 4 scorer, his underperformance in Round 3 presents a great opportunity to buy low on him. Expect Pendrith to bounce back tomorrow.

Other Options: Maverick McNealy

$8,000+

Favorite Play: Jhonattan Vegas had his best round on day one when he played the South Course. In Round 3, he gained 0.62 strokes on approach but lost 0.13 strokes putting. His performance in Round 3 was significantly below his overall tournament performance in both approach and putting. However, Vegas has shown that he is not afraid to be aggressive, score low in Round 4, and move up the leaderboard.

Other Options: Taylor Moore, Harris English

$7,000+

Favorite Play: Matti Schmid was abysmal around the greens in Round 3 but still managed to gain strokes in both approach and putting. Historically, Schmid is one of the top scorers in Round 4. He is the ideal golfer to target, as he showed in the first three rounds. Expect him to put his foot on the gas tomorrow, be aggressive, and move up the leaderboard.

Other Options: Lanto Griffin, Andrew Novak

$6,000+

Favorite Play: Jake Knapp hasn't performed well on approach in the first three rounds. In Round 3, he lost 2.05 strokes on approach but gained 2.76 strokes putting. He has lost only 0.96 strokes on approach throughout the tournament while gaining 2.92 strokes putting. His putting has been impressive, and he cannot perform any worse than he did in Round 3 with his approach play.

Other Options: Noah Goodwin, Aaron Baddeley

Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't

This will be an every week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can outperform expectations but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.

Kris Ventura has performed well leading up to the final round. He has gained 1.49 strokes on approach but lost 0.09 strokes putting. However, in Round 3, he had his worst round of the tournament on the putting green, losing an astonishing 3.74 strokes putting. However, he still gained 1.26 strokes on approach. Ventura's putting can't get much worse than it did in Round 3, and he is likely to create birdie opportunities in the final round at the very least.

Showdown Optimizer

The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.

Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.

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