QB Strength of Schedule Analysis - Fantasy Football Quarterback Matchups (2024)

October 24, 2024

Scott looks at 2024 QB fantasy football strength of schedules and the best fantasy football quarterback matchups for the rest of the season. Target these QBs.

Welcome to the third installment of my 2024 mid-season fantasy strength of schedule article series. I have covered the running back and wide receiver positions over the last few weeks, and this week we turn our focus to the quarterbacks, starting with a focus on the immediate future (Weeks 8-11).

Whether you play the streaming game at QB or are in a two-QB or Super Flex league, this article helps by breaking down the rest of season schedule for each QB into smaller spans of games, so you can strategize accordingly. Or maybe you drafted a QB early only to be cast into a precarious situation of doubt. I am talking directly to Patrick Mahomes managers in fantasy. *crickets*

Either way, fantasy football is supposed to be fun. One of my favorite aspects is the in-season strategizing, often involving opponent strength as a key input. And because QB is a position that is often streamed, much like Defense/Special Teams, SOS can be a more heavily weighted piece of the puzzle than it is for other fantasy skill positions. So, let's dive in, shall we?

A Brief Introduction to the SOS Process in Fantasy

As the fantasy season can be difficult to predict pre-Week 1, the criteria used before the season starts differs from what is used for strength of schedule during the season.

A player’s opponent strength should not be the sole reason you choose to start or sit that player in a given week, but it should be a piece of the decision-making process. It can be a good tiebreaker if you are deciding between two players as well.

By looking at current and future matchup difficulties and breaking the season down into different time frames (e.g., “Next Four Games”, “Stretch Run”, and Fantasy Playoffs), it also allows you to strategize for potential trade attempts.

If a player has a difficult stretch of games in the next month, followed by a much more favorable schedule after that, you might be able to catch a manager in a panic after their player understandably underperforms against tough opponents and make a move right before their schedule opens up, and vice versa.

To that end, along with the “Next Four Games” zoomed into view, a new addition to this year’s article will be the inclusion of a closer look at the “Stretch Run” matchups (Week 12-14), rather than just being displayed in the full season color-coded chart.

How to Use the Strength of Schedule Process to Your Advantage

I’ll start by providing some insight into my process and what data I use to project opponent strength and strength of schedule. Then we’ll look closer at the different schedule time frames.

Fantasy matchups are something I’ve spent a lot of time on over the last three years. During the season I compile game log data for every game to arrive at raw fantasy points allowed to each position as soon as possible each week. The goal is to have the results available before waivers so matchup strength can be factored into those decisions.

Plenty of sites provide fantasy points allowed data. I choose to do it myself so I can rearrange and reorganize in ways I think are helpful. Raw points allowed are helpful but don’t tell the full story. It’s important to dig a little deeper and look at points allowed relative to an opponent’s average.

For example, if Team A gives up 20 fantasy points to Lamar Jackson and Team B gives up the same number of points to Trevor Lawrence. Raw fantasy points allowed would show Team A and B being the same matchup difficulty versus QBs. Using “Points Over Average (POA)” paints a more accurate picture.

Through seven weeks, Jackson has averaged 24.5 points per game and Lawrence has averaged 14.6 points per game. Using POA allowed, Team A held the Jackson 4.5 points under their average (a POA allowed of -4.5) while Team B allowed Lawrence to score 5.4 points above his average (a POA allowed of +5.4).

Through this lens, these two teams are far from an equal matchup difficulty. This turns raw fantasy points allowed to an “opponent-adjusted” fantasy points allowed.

The other angle I am adding to the equation is recency. A team’s season-long average points allowed can look different than over a more recent stretch of games. Defenses improve or regress for a variety of reasons. Players get injured or return from injury, coaches adjust their schemes and game plans (on both sides of the ball), and, more qualitatively, players and teams figure it out over time.

Neither season-long nor recent data sets are definitive, but it’s important to look at both when trying to increase the probability of making the right future decisions.

The following are the data sets I use in my process for determining opponent strength versus fantasy QBs (four points per passing TD):

1. Raw fantasy points allowed to QBs per game.
2. POA allowed to QBs per game; season-long.
3. POA allowed to QBs per game over the last three games.
4. POA allowed to QBs per game over the last five games.
5. Passing yards allowed per game.
6. Passing yards per pass attempt allowed per game.

2024 Rest-of-Season Fantasy Strength of Schedule

I generated tables showing each team’s rest of season (ROS) schedule (Week 8-17) with each weekly opponent color-coded based on that opponent’s rank (1-32) versus the fantasy QB position. Lower number ranks with a red color indicate more difficult fantasy matchups.

Higher number ranks with a green color represent more favorable matchups. I update these each week. Also known as schedule “heat maps,” the ROS schedule for QBs is included at the end of the article.

This schedule heat map is provided in two formats. One shows each team’s opponents’ team abbreviation. The other shows the actual numbered rank (1-32) of each opponent.

Also included are each team’s ROS and fantasy playoffs (Week 15-17) SOS score (average of opponent ranks in those time frames).

As a teaser, the following teams have the top 10 most favorable ROS QB schedules:

1. Eagles
2. Giants
3. Buccaneers
4. Broncos
5. Titans
6. Chiefs
7. Cowboys
8. Jets
9. Panthers
10. Bears

2024 Fantasy Strength of Schedule Time Frames

In separating the full season into smaller buckets/stretches of games, they are each defined as follows:

• Next Four Games: Weeks 8-11
• Stretch Run: Weeks 12-14
• Fantasy Playoffs: Weeks 15-17

We will be looking at each time frame and the teams with the Top 10 most favorable fantasy matchups for QBs during those spans according to my adjusted fantasy points allowed ranks.

For these time frame breakdowns, I also added the current starting QB for each team, as well as each of those QB’s fantasy points per game (PPG; four-point passing TDs), Expected Points Added (EPA) per drop-back (DB), and completion percentage over expected (CPOE; as per Pro Football Focus).

Strength of Schedule: Next Four Games

The following chart shows each team’s QB schedule over the next four games (Weeks 8-11). This is just a condensed version of the color-coded charts shown for the ROS schedule (with players added in) and is sorted by the SOS score in the right-hand column from highest (easier) to lowest (harder).

The 49ers check in with the most favorable QB schedule over the next four games. Unfortunately, this stretch of tasty QB matchups is coming at a time when Brock Purdy will be without Brandon Aiyuk (out for the season), and maybe without Deebo Samuel Sr. in Week 8 due to an illness.

There is certainly hype surrounding the next WRs up in San Francisco, namely, Jauan Jennings and rookie Ricky Pearsall. Jennings scored 46.5 PPR fantasy points the last time he led that WR group back in Week 3. And George Kittle currently sits as the overall TE1 (PPR) in fantasy points per game.

Purdy should still produce useable fantasy weeks with this cast of characters, and Deebo should be back soon.

The second-most favorable QB schedule over the next month belongs to Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets, with games against the Patriots (18^th), Texans (20^th), Cardinals (27^th), and Colts (29^th). The problem here is that Rodgers has been just plain bad this season.

Looking at QBs who have played at least four games, Rodgers ranks 26^th in passing yards per attempt, 23^rd in Expected Points Added (EPA) per drop-back, 32^nd in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), and 21^st in PPG (data courtesy of Pro Football Focus).

Davante Adams becoming more acclimated to the Jets offense might help, but Rodgers isn’t a starting fantasy QB outside of Super Flex leagues.

Coming in at number three are the Broncos and rookie Bo Nix. The next two weeks are about as good as it gets with matchups versus the Panthers and Ravens, both top five favorable matchups for fantasy QBs.

With Nix’s roster ownership only at 28% on ESPN and 29% on Sleeper, he is a great streaming option for the next two weeks or fill-in for Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, who as of this writing is highly questionable to play in Week 8.

One aspect of Nix’s fantasy game that makes him appealing is the floor he has provided recently with his rushing. Nix has averaged 36.4 rushing yards per game on the season and 68 rushing yards per game over the last two. You essentially get to bank the equivalent of a passing TD (in four-point formats) from Nix on the ground every game.

Bo Nix is a SPECIAL talent.

The Broncos have a superstar QB in the making 🔥 pic.twitter.com/j3c4BrzkoH

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) October 22, 2024

The fourth-most favorable QB schedule in Weeks 8-11 belongs to the Eagles. You may remember Philadelphia sitting atop the most favorable ROS schedule mountain. That goodness starts immediately with three consecutive plus-matchups against the Bengals (25^th), Jaguars (32^nd), and Cowboys (26^th).

Jalen Hurts has been slightly disappointing thus far but still resides as the overall QB8 at 18.7 PPG. Through six games, Hurts has a Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE) of -1.9 PPG (per PFF), meaning positive regression could be coming, especially with his favorable schedule and wideout A.J. Brown being back in prime form.

As of this point in the Fantasy Football season, Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles has the easiest remaining schedule against defenses and their points allowed per game to the position

Lock in Hurts owners, you may have a hell of a run here.

Especially the next 6 of 7… pic.twitter.com/zipMb77D7s

— James Danielson (@snag1025) October 22, 2024

The Vikings face the fifth-easiest QB schedule based over the next four games based on adjusted fantasy points allowed. In this span, Sam Darnold has two juicy matchups versus the Colts and Jaguars (Weeks 9 and 10) sandwiched in between two slightly below-average games versus the Rams and Titans (Weeks 8 and 11).

After averaging just under three TDs per game in September, Darnold has come back down to Earth in October, with only one passing TD and two interceptions in the last two games.

And looking at the realm of “Expected” statistics, Darnold and his overall QB13 rank are pretty close to expectation, with an EPA per drop back of zero and an FPOE of only 0.8 PPG.

Darnold has one of the better sets of weapons in the NFL, especially with T.J. Hockenson due back from injury, but his ceiling is a high-end streamer.

The sixth through 10^th-most favorable QB schedules over the next four games are listed below:

• Sixth: Steelers
  • Week 8: Giants (24^th)
  • Week 9: BYE
  • Week 10: Commanders (Seventh)
  • Week 11: Ravens (30^th)
• Seventh: Dolphins
  • Week 8: Cardinals (27^th)
  • Week 9: Bills (14^th)
  • Week 10: Rams (13^th)
  • Week 11: Raiders (23^rd)
• Eighth: Lions
  • Week 8: Titans (12^th)
  • Week 9: Packers (10^th)
  • Week 10: Texans (20^th)
  • Week 11: Jaguars (32^nd)
• Ninth: Giants
  • Week 8: Steelers (19^th)
  • Week 9: Commanders (Seventh)
  • Week 10: Panthers (28^th)
  • Week 11: BYE
• 10^th: Chiefs
  • Week 8: Raiders (23^rd)
  • Week 9: Buccaneers (31^st)
  • Week 10: Broncos (Second)
  • Week 11: Bills (14^th)

Strength of Schedule: Stretch Run

The following chart shows each team’s QB schedule for the regular season Stretch Run (Week 12-14).

The Stretch Run is where we start cooking. The team with the third-best ROS QB schedule, the Buccaneers, checks in with the most favorable schedule in Weeks 12-14.

However, we cannot ignore the elephant in the room. In Week 7, Baker Mayfield lost his two best WRs when Mike Evans reaggravated his hamstring injury and Chris Godwin dislocated his ankle with 40 seconds to play. It is not official, but Godwin, who was having a career year, is likely out for the season.

Like Purdy, this hinders Mayfield during a favorable upcoming schedule of opponents. The 49ers are in a better situation with their TE and WR fill-ins than the Buccaneers, even with the surging play of Cade Otton. Where Mayfield has the edge in this comparison is with his RBs (unless Christian McCaffrey were to return).

The Eagles have now made the top five of both time frames, which is not surprising since they have the best ROS QB schedule.

During the Stretch Run, they start with a slightly tougher opponent (Rams), but in the final two games before the fantasy playoffs, when many teams will either be securing their spot or falling out of contention, Hurts gets the Ravens (30^th) and Panthers (28^th).

Hurts is a QB I would be aggressively trying to acquire before he ascends back into the top five fantasy QBs, a result well within the range of outcomes.

The third-most favorable Stretch Run schedule belongs to Joe Burrow and the Bengals, with the caveat that they have their bye in Week 12. Then they face the Steelers (19^th) and Cowboys (26^th).

Burrow is currently third in the NFL in passing TDs with 14 and has only thrown two interceptions. Burrow is fifth in EPA per drop-back, has the third-highest QB rating, and has the second lowest “Turnover-Worthy” play rate (per PFF). Burrow will be a QB on a lot of fantasy playoff teams.

In the Joe Burrow era, the Bengals throw the ball as much as anyone.
Look at early downs (neutral situations).
They only trail KC and Buffalo and that's with a rookie Burrow and half of 2023 with Browning.

Zac Taylor and the Bengals call the game like Burrow is an elite QB. https://t.co/wy1PkvWHTJ pic.twitter.com/dIr54wpoK5

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) October 24, 2024

C.J. Stroud and the Texans finally join the party with the fourth-easiest Stretch Run schedule, although their SOS is misleading. They get the 12^th-toughest matchup against the Titans in Week 12. Then they get the easiest QB opponent in the NFL in Week 13 against the Jaguars. In Week 14, they are on a bye.

The Texans making this list is solely due to their matchup in Jacksonville, and a Week 14 bye is not ideal. The other glaring problem with the timing is the schedule for other QBs who would reasonably be available to replace Stroud for you in Week 14.

The Titans have the best Week 14 matchup (Jaguars), but whoever or whatever their QB is at that time will not be an answer. The Raiders have the next-best matchup against the Buccaneers, so, the same.

Geno Smith, with a Week 14 matchup against the 27^th-ranked Cardinals is your best, realistic target if you have Stroud and need a win in Week 14.

The sixth through 10^th-most favorable Stretch Run schedules are listed below:

• Sixth: Giants
  • Week 12: Buccaneers (31^st)
  • Week 13: Cowboys (26^th)
  • Week 14: Saints (Sixth)
• Seventh: Chiefs
  • Week 12: Panthers (28^th)
  • Week 13: Raiders (26^th)
  • Week 14: Chargers (11^th)
• Eighth: Chargers
  • Week 12: Ravens (30^th)
  • Week 13: Falcons (17^th)
  • Week 14: Chiefs (15^th)
• Ninth: Titans
  • Week 12: Texans (20^th)
  • Week 13: Commanders (Seventh)
  • Week 14: Jaguars (32^nd)
• 10^th: Seahawks
  • Week 12: Cardinals (27^th)
  • Week 13: Jets (Third)
  • Week 14: Cardinals (27^th)

Strength of Schedule: Fantasy Playoffs

The following chart shows each team’s QB schedule for the Fantasy Playoffs (Week 15-17).

The teams with top 10 matchups during the Fantasy Playoffs leave a lot to be desired. In fact, the top three have signal callers that are you might be unable to start or would not foster confidence during the most crucial time of the year:

1. Titans
2. Panthers
3. Giants

The fourth-best schedule belongs to the Broncos, and while I like what I am seeing (from a fantasy football perspective) from Bo Nix, sleep will be lost if managers are relying on a rookie in a mediocre offense during the playoffs.

At number five we do arrive at a worthy QB in Baker Mayfield, and as you can see below, numbers six through eight are QB1s. Before we get to the sixth through 10^th best matchups, it is important to point out the QBs who have brutal playoff schedules.

Purdy has the toughest QB schedule, followed by Burrow, Daniels, Josh Allen, and Jared Goff. Yikes.

The remaining Top 10-favorable Fantasy Playoffs schedules are listed below:

• Sixth: Cowboys
  • Week 15: Panthers (28^th)
  • Week 16: Buccaneers (31^st)
  • Week 17: Eagles (Fifth)
• Seventh: Ravens
  • Week 15: Giants (24^th)
  • Week 16: Steelers (19^th)
  • Week 17: Texans (20^th)
• Eighth: Cardinals
  • Week 15: Seahawks (22^nd)
  • Week 16: Panthers (28^th)
  • Week 17: Seahawks (22^nd)
• Ninth: Jets
  • Week 15: Jaguars (32^nd)
  • Week 16: Rams (13^th)
  • Week 17: Bills (14^th)
• 10^th: Raiders
  • Week 15: Falcons (17^th)
  • Week 16: Jaguars (32^nd)
  • Week 17: Saints (Sixth)

Before I go, I will leave you with the ROS heat map schedules for each team for the QB position (Weeks 8-17), ordered from best to worst SOS scores. Good luck during the rest of the 2024 fantasy football season!

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into fantasy strength of schedule with the hope that I can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. I will be compiling data every week all season long and updating fantasy strength of schedule each week.

I am always available to help out. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X @MunderDifflinFF.

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