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Justin's NASCAR Cup Series DFS picks for the Toyota / Save Mart 350. Check out his DFS sleepers and top plays on DraftKings and FanDuel for Sonoma (2024).
The NASCAR Cup Series is in Sonoma this weekend for the Toyota / Save Mart 350. Last year, Martin Truex Jr. won here for the fourth time in his career. His dominance plus the strong showings from some recently retired drivers here means that not a lot of active drivers have won here. Aside from Truex, the only former Sonoma winners in this field are Daniel Suarez, Kyle Larson, and Kyle Busch.
One big question this weekend is about how this track will race after the repave. The laps are faster, which could mean a number of things. Maybe things get too spread out and we don't get much passing. Maybe we get cars getting bigger runs because they're carrying more speed. Or maybe we get some carnage out of it—as I write this, I'm watching the Xfinity Series race and there was just a huge crash that caught much of the field up in it after a restart. I don't recall seeing something like that at this track before.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Toyota / Save Mart 350 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 6/9/2024 at 3:48 p.m. EDT. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Tyler Reddick
Starts Second - DK: $9.5K, FD: $10.5K
Normally I focus a lot on place differential plays, but I kind of worry this weekend that the increased speed from the repave is going to make passing tough, so I'm looking for good road course racers who should finish well.
That begins with Tyler Reddick, who'll start this race on the front row beside Joey Logano. Reddick's track record here is objectively bad, as he's never finished better than 19th and has two finishes outside of the top 30.
A lot of that's just bad luck, as he's had speed in qualifying every year, never starting worse than 10th here. At some point, Reddick is going to put a full race together at Sonoma.
Ty Gibbs
Starts 10th - DK: $9.0K, FD: $8.5K
Ty Gibbs is a talented road course racer, earning his first Xfinity Series victory back in 2021 in his series debut at the Daytona road course. He's yet to find victory lane in the Cup Series, but that debut win coming on a road course wouldn't be a surprise at all.
Only one thing left to do. 🟢
Qualifying from @racesonoma:@tylerreddick P2@bubbawallace P18#TeamToyota pic.twitter.com/wNy773SQ0Z
— 23XI Racing (@23XIRacing) June 9, 2024
Gibbs finished fourth here in the Xfinity Series race last year and looked on his way to another top-five on Saturday before he was caught up in a big crash. In the only road course race in the Cup Series this year, Gibbs started second and finished third at COTA. He led one lap in that race.
A.J. Allmendinger
Starts 11th - DK: $8.8K, FD: $8.2K
This isn't A.J. Allmendinger's best road course. In fact, it's fair to say that this is the worst road course in NASCAR for Allmendinger, one of the league's top road course aces.
Still, Allmendinger has had good runs here. He's led double-digit laps at the track twice in the Cup Series and he was on his way to a top-five in the Xfinity race here on Saturday before spinning on a late restart.
ALLMENDINGER SPINS!!!@AlwaysRaceDay pic.twitter.com/mTFjCYpNMH
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) June 9, 2024
Last year, Allmendinger had his best finish ever at Sonoma in the Cup Series, starting fifth and finishing sixth. He has a chance to have a solid top-10 run on Sunday.
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Daniel Suarez
Starts Seventh - DK: $8.0K, FD: $7.0K
Daniel Suarez is one of the few drivers in this field with a win at Sonoma, as he led 47 of 110 laps in the 2022 race here to earn the first victory of his Cup Series career. He started eighth in that race.
Trackhouse hasn't had consistent speed this season, but Suarez looks to be competitive this weekend at a track where he's only finished outside of the top 20 once. If this track proves to be as tough to pass at this year as people are anticipating, I can see Suarez sticking around the top 10 all day, though there's definitely a scenario where the Trackhouse inconsistency becomes an issue for him.
Will Brown
Starts 24th - DK: $7.2K, FD: $7.2K
The Australian Supercars invasion continues. Shane Van Gisbergen's win last year at Chicago opened the floodgates and this race to set to see two Supercars drivers set to make their Cup Series debuts: Will Brown in the No. 33 car for Richard Childress Racing and Cam Waters in the No. 60 for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing.
#NASCAR News: Obviously, a lot can change between now and Sunday, but in their first career NASCAR Cup practices, Supercars stars Will Brown (third) and Cam Waters (35th) found themselves on opposite ends of the scoring pylon: https://t.co/7YhDpqfyqY
— TobyChristie.com (@TobyChristieCom) June 8, 2024
Of the two, I strongly prefer Brown this weekend if we're talking DFS. He was fast in practice, turning the third-best lap during the session, and while he didn't have that same speed in qualifying, I still think he can run a solid race here. His place differential upside and low price makes him a strong play.
Brad Keselowski
Starts 35th - DK: $7.0K, FD: $4.5K
We're at a road course, which is why Brad Keselowski's salary took a pretty big drop. He was $9.5K on DraftKings last week, for example.
The reason for that is that Keselowski doesn't have a great record at road courses. In 13 Sonoma starts, he has just three top 10s, and his average road course finish is 17.0, three spots lower than his overall average finish.
With Keselowski starting all the way back in 35th, all those concerns go out the window. His average finish at this track is 16.1, which isn't great, but when it's almost 20 spots higher than his starting position, the place differential upside is too great to be ignored.
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