Fantasy Baseball Prospect Risers (Week 11) - Rookies to Stash and Top Performers

Andy's fantasy baseball prospect sleepers and risers to know for 2024 (Week 11). He analyzes MLB prospects in the minor leagues and their recent performances.

The minor league baseball season is underway and many well-known prospects are already making their case for an MLB debut later this summer.

However, the question is do these performances truly matter for this season? How easy will it be for these prospects to reach the big leagues and are they worth stashing on your redraft roster?

Knowing which prospects to watch can put you ahead of your league mates and in the driver’s seat during the second half of the season. Adding the right prospect can fill the missing piece on your roster and power you to a fantasy baseball championship. This fantasy baseball prospects biweekly series will examine a few key players in the minor leagues and assess whether they have a path to fantasy stardom in 2024. 

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Brennen Davis, OF, Chicago Cubs

Chicago No. 22 , Overall N/A

Davis is one of the feel-good stories in the minor leagues this season. After battling several injuries over the past two seasons, he went from the top prospect in the Chicago Cubs system a few seasons ago to now ranked as the No. 22 prospect in the system. However, that is sure to change due to his recent stretch. Through 27 games with Triple-A Iowa this season, he holds a .270/.434/.622, with eight long balls and a 15:21 BB:K ratio. From May 10 to May 18, he went hitless in only one game and launched seven of his home runs within this window.

BRENNEN. DAVIS. GRAND. SLAM. Five homers in his last six games and six in his last eight. pic.twitter.com/n08lSVpnhx

— Iowa Cubs (@IowaCubs) May 18, 2024

Davis played in only 62 games at Triple-A last summer and struggled with a .187/.296/.279 and only four home runs. His last successful season at the plate was in 2021, where he posted a .260/.375/.494 line across High, Double, and Triple-A. The 24-year-old has never been this successful at Triple-A until this season. However, the question is, is this production legit? Currently, he has posted his best fly-ball rate in his career (at Triple-A), an excellent 52.8%. His ground-ball rate is also a career best at Triple-A, at 26.4%.

The only reason this would not be meaningful for 2024 is that his playing time is a serious question. The Cubs have three established starting outfielders in Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Cody Bellinger, and a solid bench option in Mike Tauchman. Also, Pete Crow-Armstrong looked good in his extended major league stint earlier this season and will be the first name called if the Cubs need an extra outfielder. That said, the Cubs may lean on the side of caution with Davis due to how limited his playing time has been the past few seasons. Unfortunately, it is hard to picture him being relevant from a fantasy perspective in 2024.

Verdict: Leave on waiver wires for now

Henry Davis, C/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

No Longer Considered a prospect

While Henry Davis is technically not a prospect anymore, he has logged only 85 games at the major league level and still has significant room for growth. The Louisville product has frustrated fantasy managers over the past two seasons and is more often than not available on every waiver wire.

Don’t look now, but since his demotion to Triple-A, the former No. 1 overall pick has been on an impressive stretch and could be back in the Steel City fairly soon. Since May 16, Davis has only gone hitless in one game and is riding a .385/.489/.974 line with six home runs, one stolen base, and a 5:8 BB:K ratio. 

Fourth home run of the year for Henry Davis in 12 games pic.twitter.com/Eoiu1Nmn1H

— Austin Bechtold (@AustinRBechtold) May 22, 2024

The backstop posted similar numbers across a 14-game stint with Triple-A Indianapolis last season with a .375/.516/.604 line with two long balls and a 13:13 BB:K ratio. Unfortunately, this production has yet to translate to the major league level. He currently holds a cumulative .201/.297/.317 line with seven home runs and a 36:98 BB:K ratio through 85 games over the past two seasons.

When looking at his batted ball profile this season, he has a strong 48.9% fly-ball rate at Triple-A this season but a mere 39.0% rate in the majors. However, in 2023, he posted a slightly worse 36.9% fly-ball rate. Also, he improved his ground-ball rate in the majors this season from the 44.6% he put up last season to the 39.0% rate he posted this spring.

While these improvements still need a lot of work to be valuable fantasy assets, it is great to see Davis continue to accelerate in the minor leagues. He also showed improvement in his short stint in Pittsburgh in April. Davis should be back up with the major league roster sometime in June and is worth stashing in NL-only formats for the time being.

Verdict: Stash in deep redraft leagues, wait for promotion in shallow leagues

Tink Hence, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis No. 1, Overall No. 49

St. Louis Cardinals top prospect Tink Hence has been one of the biggest improvers in the minor leagues this season and nearing his Triple-A debut. Through 45 ⅔ innings at Double-A Springfield, the 21-year-old is holding a 2.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 14:59 BB:K ratio. He tossed 54 ⅓ innings at Double-A but posted a much worse 5.47 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 22:53 BB:K ratio.

However, he did post a strong 2.81 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 41 ⅔ innings at High-A last season and an excellent 1.38 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 52 ⅓ innings at Single-A in 2022. So, how has Hence all of a sudden taken a major step in Double-A this season? First, his command has shown great improvements. Last season at Double-A, he posted a 9.2% walk rate compared to his 7.5% walk rate this season. In addition, he raised his K rate from 22.2% to 31.7% and overall K-BB% from 13.0% to 24.2%. 

Tink Hence struck out nine tonight.

In six of his ten starts this year, Hence has struck out at least six batters.

Final line: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, BB, 9 K pic.twitter.com/TxdheRYPgH

— Springfield Cardinals (@Sgf_Cardinals) May 31, 2024

These are drastic improvements in command and have helped Hence stay out of trouble. By limiting the free passes and getting more outs via the strikeout, he can set himself up for much stronger sustained success. This improvement is also prevalent when looking at his batted ball data. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are significant indicators of whether a pitcher can remain successful for an extended period of time. Hence’s metrics directly correlate with the elite season he is enjoying.

He lowered his fly-ball rate from 34.6% to 29.1% this season and raised his ground-ball rate from 39.1%, which he held at Double-A in 2023, to a stellar 48.2% rate this season. In addition, this season, he holds a 2.88 xFIP compared to the hefty 4.61 xFIP he posted last season. While these improvements are amazing for his development as a prospect, does this truly matter for 2024?

MLB Pipeline projects Hence to reach the majors this season, which is a good sign, but that timeline offers very little margin for error. With how well he is performing at Double-A, he should be moved up to Triple-A fairly soon but has to carry that production right over to have a chance to reach the majors. Currently, the Cardinals rotation only has four true starters: Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. Steven Matz (back) is on the 15-day injured list but is expected to return sometime in June and should slot in as the No. 5 option.

However, a few pieces in that rotation have not been performing up to par, and the Cardinals could have an outside chance of competing for a division title in a pretty mediocre NL Central. If the Cardinals remain in the hunt by August, Hence could easily slot in as the No. 3 option in this rotation. Fantasy managers should monitor his production at Double-A, especially if he is promoted to Triple-A in the next month.

Verdict: Stash in all keeper leagues, wait in redraft leagues for now

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