Three Rookie Running Back Sleepers for 2024 Fantasy Football

RotoBaller's 2024 Fantasy Football coverage is gearing up. Jackson Sparks digs into three rookie running backs that could impact the fantasy football season ahead.

After a long offseason wait, the 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone. This year's draft saw six quarterbacks come off the board within the first 12 picks, and a whopping 10 wide receivers were among the first 37 players picked.

Meanwhile, the 2024 running back class has been viewed as one of the weakest groups of ball carriers in years. While that might be true, there are still plenty of rookie RB fantasy football values and sleepers for redraft and dynasty setups.

Ahead of rookie, redraft, best ball, and dynasty start-up drafts, let's dive into three running back sleepers for 2024 fantasy football.

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Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins

As if the Dolphins didn't already have enough speed on offense, Miami added Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright in the fourth round -- making him the fifth ball carrier off the board. Wright was rumored to potentially sneak into Day 2 of the draft after posting a 4.38 forty-yard dash at 210 pounds, but he was ultimately selected after Jonathon Brooks, Trey Benson, Blake Corum, and MarShawn Lloyd.

ONE SNAP.
ONE PLAY.
TOUCHDOWN @VOL_FOOTBALL. pic.twitter.com/SRREQmbxHF

— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) November 18, 2023

While Wright will almost certainly begin his rookie campaign behind De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, he's worth a pickup in the late rounds of drafts. The 32-year-old Mostert has surprisingly played in 31 of his 34 possible games over the last two years, but he was oft-injured when he was in San Francisco, and the injury risk increases each season as he heads towards his mid-30s. Meanwhile, the sub-190-pound Achane played in just 11 games during his rookie year and spent time on the Injured Reserve list, so naturally, he has durability concerns.

Luckily, fantasy managers likely won't need both Dolphins lead backs to miss time for Wright to make an impact. Head coach Mike McDaniel has implemented a committee approach in his two seasons with Miami, so Wright could have at least low-end flex appeal if Mostert or Achane are out for any period of time. If both miss the same game(s), Wright would become a must-start option in fantasy football.

The 21-year-old rookie averaged a whopping 7.4 yards per carry in his final collegiate season, and he should fit perfectly in McDaniel's explosive wide zone offense. With the threat of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the perimeter, any running back taking carries for Miami should have room to operate. Given Wright's speed and knack for breakaway runs, the upside here is tantalizing.

Will Shipley, Philadelphia Eagles

After posting 3,350 yards from scrimmage and 33 touchdowns in three seasons at Clemson, Will Shipley was selected with the No. 127 overall pick (fourth round) by the Philadelphia Eagles. He obviously wasn't selected to be the primary back for the team that just signed Saquon Barkley to a generous three-year deal, but he should compete with Kenneth Gainwell for the backup role in 2024.

Will Shipley HURDLES A MAN 😳@ClemsonFB | #ACCFootball

📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/1rOeJHBwyZ

— ACC Football (@ACCFootball) November 12, 2022

Since Barkley's 2018 rookie season, he has missed an average of 4.8 games over the next five years. He has also failed to average greater than 4.4 yards per carry in a single campaign since 2019. Ultimately, the 27-year-old has one of the highest probabilities among running backs to miss a handful of games, and his efficiency has declined since his early years in the NFL.

Enter Shipley, a fresh 21-year-old back with 4.42 speed and a 9.6% college target share. The Eagles probably wouldn't have drafted him if he wasn't going to be given a legitimate shot at the RB2 role, so his chances to play meaningful snaps as a rookie are high.

Playing alongside dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts and behind a strong Philly offensive line makes life easy on running backs, setting up Shipley for at least low-end RB2 projections if he becomes a short-term starter. Even if new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore opts to use a committee approach of Shipley and Gainwell in the case of a Barkley injury, Shipley would be viewed as a deep-league FLEX option. With the high injury rate at the position, stashing backups with his profile is key to fantasy success.

Remember -- it's often better to roster handcuffs of running backs you don't have. That way, you're not hedging against yourself and have a greater chance of playing two starters alongside each other in lineups. Shipley has immediate high-end handcuff intrigue.

Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers

If you didn't know much about former Wisconsin and Louisville running back Isaac Guerendo before the 2024 NFL Combine, you're not alone. But after his performance in Indianapolis, he entered the fantasy football radar -- and the 49ers draft board.

While bigger-name backs like Jaylen Wright and Trey Benson had excellent showings at the combine and made plenty of headlines, Guerendo was historically special. At 221 pounds, he led all running backs with a 4.33 forty-time and posted a 98-percentile burst score. Size-adjusted speed and athleticism are most important at the running back spot, and he'll now enter the Christian McCaffrey-led running back room in Kyle Shanahan's offense.

RD 4 | PK 129 - 49ers: Isaac Guerendo RB, Louisville

At 221 pounds, Guerendo reached the fastest top speed (24.08 mph), ran the fastest 40 yard dash (4.33), and jumped the highest vertical jump (41.5") among running backs at the 2024 Combine. He is one of five RBs since 2003 to… pic.twitter.com/d0iBqk1drs

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) April 27, 2024

Given Guerendo's elite athletic profile, it's a mystery why it took him until his fifth college season to surpass 500 yards from scrimmage, but he was buried on the depth chart for four years at Wisconsin. In his one year with the Cardinals, he racked up 1,044 scrimmage yards and 11 total touchdowns. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry and a fantastic 10.6 yards per reception.

McCaffrey is cemented as the 49ers lead back as long as he's healthy, but Guerendo will compete with Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason to be CMC's relief man and backup. Given his efficiency in his final year of college and off-the-charts measurables, even a small role in one of the NFL's best offensive attacks could yield at least minor fantasy production.

If McCaffrey misses a few starts with a minor injury, the 23-year-old rookie has a legit path to starting fantasy lineups in 12-team leagues. This is an early call considering Mitchell and Mason won't just concede their spots on the depth chart, but Guerendo is a key rookie to monitor this offseason.

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