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One more round of the NFL Playoffs and then the Super Bowl is here. That also means we're one step closer to the Super Bowl logo theory that's floating around social media from coming true. Both of the top seeds, Baltimore and San Francisco, whose colors comprise the logo, remain. But we're not picking off of color schemes today.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into semi-confident picks and toss-ups. The number next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of the first game. Injury question marks for Sunday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not.
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Semi-Confident Pick For Conference Championship Pick 'Em Pools
2 - San Francisco vs. Detroit
Detroit's run through the postseason, for the first time in many people's lifetimes, is a dream come true for the entire city. The offense, with a healthy and elite offensive line, rarely slows down. The unit won't be entirely healthy on Sunday. Guard Jonah Jackson is trending toward missing the game. Center Frank Ragnow grinded his way through several ailments against Tampa Bay.
While not as extreme as in years past, Jared Goff is a much better quarterback in Motown than anywhere else. The 49ers are much stronger against the run than the pass, so the onus will fall on Goff even more to make plays. Luckily for him and Brock Purdy, there doesn't appear to be any weather concerns in the forecast. Welcome to Northern California.
Ultimately this game boils down to the Lions' inability to slow down opposing passing games. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua went for 367 and 181 yards, respectively, on Wild Card Weekend. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans followed that up with 349 and 147 yards. Throughout the regular season, Purdy was more efficient and threw for more yards per game than both of those quarterbacks. The only defenses that slowed him and the offense down were the best of the best, Baltimore and Cleveland.
Even against Green Bay in the Divisional Round, Purdy topped 250 yards without the services of one of his top weapons, Deebo Samuel. Samuel's involvement in the game plan was evident from the jump, but a shoulder injury took him out after two early receptions. Samuel is the type of receiver that would torch the Detroit secondary with yards after the catch. According to reports, he's a 50-50 shot to play on Sunday.
Brandon Aiyuk wasn't a star against Green Bay, but he's more than capable of picking up the slack if Samuel sits. Between him, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle, offensive weapons won't be lacking on the San Francisco side.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Up Of Conference Championships
1 - Baltimore vs. Kansas City
As I said last week, it's hard to pick against the reigning Super Bowl champions. But I'm doubling down and siding with the favorite again.
It felt like Buffalo had their shot at taking down Kansas City until fans heard two of the worst words in sports: wide right. A missed field goal from Tyler Bass was the final nail in their coffin, and Josh Allen was defeated by Patrick Mahomes yet again.
The book of Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson doesn't have any chapters yet. This will be the first postseason meeting for the two MVPs.
In reality, the matchup worth watching is Mahomes against the elite Baltimore defense. C.J. Stroud led the league in passing yards per game (273.9) during the regular season. The Ravens limited the rookie to 175 yards and no touchdowns. Tua Tagovailoa was right behind Stroud. In Week 16, with the top seed in the AFC on the line, Tagovailoa threw 35 yards below his average and tossed two interceptions. The week prior, the Ravens ruined Brock Purdy's MVP campaign when they picked him off four times.
The Chiefs' offense isn't all it's hyped up to be. The unit finished the regular season below the league average, scoring touchdowns on 54.1% of their red zone appearances. In the postseason, that number is down to 40 percent. That happens to be almost the same rate that the Ravens allow their opponents to find paydirt in the red zone. The trends are adding up to a busy day for kicker Harrison Butker.
Touchdowns will be needed to beat Baltimore because the offense is no slouch either. Jackson's group finished fourth in the NFL in scoring (28.4 points per game) during the regular season.
In the battle of two of the most exciting players in the NFL, the defenses are the story. As the adage goes, defense wins championships, and the best of these two elite units wins out.
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