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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on January 6, 2024.
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Tonight we have ourselves one of the more challenging slates that I can remember in a long while. Often, slates can be a challenge if there aren’t any good matchups, but tonight is quite the opposite; there are a plethora of lines that are in great spots to succeed. The top lines for Edmonton and Vegas have two of those matchups and that could see massive ownership head their way. The key to this slate will first be deciding if you want to play these lines, and then if you do, which secondary stacks you want to use with them to make yourself a little bit unique. Thankfully, this slate offers more than enough options to play it any way that you please.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Edmonton Oilers (EDM1 - Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard)
Tonight, I’m chalk donkey. It’s going to be hard to get off the three most popular lines on this slate given their insane matchups. The first of these lines is the top line for the Edmonton Oilers. Connor McDavid is the best player in the world right now, and his line is in a great spot to succeed tonight. They match up against a Senators team that has struggled on the road over their last ten games, allowing 3.27 even-strength goals per 60 minutes. Even with positive regression, the Sens are looking at expected goals allowed over nearly three per 60 minutes.
After a slow start, the Oilers are finally playing the kind of hockey we know they are capable of playing. They have scored 3.37 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, and advanced data paints that as a legitimate level of productivity. When the Oilers get rolling, no team is more lethal in the entire NHL…and make no miskate, the Oilers are rolling. McDavid has a goal or assist in 18 of his last 20 games, including 13 games of multiple goals and assists. RNH and Hyman are playing well right now, too, with a combined 11 goals and assists over their last four games. Add in Evan Bouchard to get very unique, as many people will avoid spending this much money on a stack. We can make that work since we have identified numerous value stacks that pair well with the Oilers.
Vegas Golden Knights (VGK1 - Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev, Alex Pietrangelo)
The other late-night hammer tonight is the defending Stanely Cup champions, and greatest team in the history of pro sports, the Vegas Golden Knights. I may be a homer for my Knights, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have a great matchup tonight. They are at home in the Fortress against the New York Islanders, a team that is getting rolled regularly on the road. The Isles have allowed over three even-strength goals and nearly 14 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last ten road games. Igor Shesterkin is the only thing holding this team together, allowing fewer than three goals in three of his last four starts. In fact, he’s held this team together all year, saving 95.7% of the unblocked shots he’s faced. Even with that high level of play, he’s allowing 3.10 goals per game, with an expected goals-allowed of 3.4 per game. If he’s not at his best, the Islanders get rolled. Since the first week of December, he’s allowed three or more goals in four of six road starts.
To be fair, Vegas has struggled a bit at home lately. They’ve only scored 2.34 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten games, but they’ve also been very unlucky during that stretch. Their expected goals per 60 minutes is over three goals, so we can expect positive regression to come their way at some point. What better game for that regression to take place than against this terrible Islanders defense? Vegas is a much cheaper stack than Edmonton, which will allow you to create a more well-balanced lineup, which could be appealing given the type of stack you’ll need to use if you want to afford the Oilers.
Pittsburgh Penguins (PIT1 - Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Rickard Rakell)
If you’re looking to play a team in the earlier window of games tonight, then the Penguins are head and shoulders above anyone else. They are playing a Buffalo team that has allowed 2.52 even-strength goals and a slate-high 14.63 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their last ten road games. What’s better is that Buffalo’s expected goals allowed is just under three, which means they have some negative regression headed their way.
Speaking of regression, the Penguins are due to have positive offensive regression according to advanced data. They have scored about two even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, but they should have scored nearly a full goal more. We have seen that regression start recently, as they’ve scored three or more goals in each of their last six games. Not coincidently, that turnaround has correlated with Rickard Rakell finally remembering how to play hockey! He has three goals and four assists over those last six games; a number representing 58% of the points he’s scored all year (25 games). I’ve been calling for this turnaround for a while now, and since it’s happened the team is exploding offensively. I expect that to continue tonight given their incredible matchup.
Others in consideration: BOS2, NYR2, SJ1, NJ2, NSH1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Carolina Hurricanes (CAR3 - Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook, Seth Jarvis)
The Hurricanes have one of the best matchups on the slate tonight, taking on a Blues team that has trouble stopping anyone defensively. The Blue have allowed over three even-strength goals and nearly 13 high-danger chances per 60 minutes in their last ten road games. Advanced data shows that these numbers are legitimate, as their expected goals allowed is just under three. All three of their defensive pairings are beatable, but the one we want to target most is the top pairing of Leddy/Parayko. That duo has allowed more than three goals and 13 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the road this year. They also give up a ton of possession to their opponents, and the more time the ‘Canes have with the puck the more chances they are going to have to score.
The line that should face Leddy/Parayko the most is Carolina’s third line of Seth Jarvis, Jordan Staal, and Jordan Martinook. Jarvis is the stud of the group, taking three or more shots on goal and scoring double-digit fantasy points in four straight games. For some reason, his price is $500 cheaper tonight than it was last night when he scored a goal. Sign me up for that! Martinook and Staal are far less consistent, but they’ve produced in good spots before. While we do want full-line goals, one sneaky way to play this is to include Brent Burns (20 or more DraftKings points in three of his last five games), either as a mini-stack with Jarvis or as a part of the full line. He plays on the top power play with Jarvis; an added layer of correlation that gives you access to pieces on the Hurricanes’ top even-strength line.
Others in consideration: PIT4, NYR3, TOR3, STL2, DAL3, EDM3, BUF2
Rickard Rakell has 3 goals, 7 points in his last 6 games. He's returned to form since coming back from injury and being put back on the top line. #LetsGoPens
— nhlpens (@nhlpens) January 3, 2024
Top Goalies to Target
Mackenzie Blackwood (San Jose Sharks)
Yes, really. Slowly but surely, the Sharks' defensive data is starting to come back to respectability. They were allowing nearly four even-strength goals per 60 minutes earlier in the year, and that number is now heading under three goals. Over their last ten home games, the Sharks have allowed only 12.7 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. That number is down from over 15 high-danger chances allowed earlier in the season. A lot of that improvement can be attributed to their new defensive pairings; none of whom have been awful as they are configured. The other reason the Sharks have improved is that Mackenzie Blackwood has played pretty well at home. He’s allowing slightly over three goals per game at home this year, but because of the volume of shots he faces he’s saving over 91% of the shots he’s faced and he’s averaging over 14 DraftKings points per game in home games.
At his price point of just $6,900, those 14 points is more than enough for him to be a worthwhile play, but remember that the score is just an average so he’s had games that have far exceeded 14 points. Those games aren’t overly frequent, but he does have four games over more than 20 DraftKings points in his last eight home starts. With the Maple Leafs averaging over 33 shots on goal per game, but scoring just 2.47 even-strength goals per 60 minutes in their last ten road games, there is room for a ceiling game, and that makes Blackwood a great GPP option tonight.
Others in consideration (GPP): Linus Ullmark, Logan Thompson, Nico Daws, Igor Shesterkin
Others in consideration (Cash): Tristan Jarry, Stuart Skinner
