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Who's going to win the 2023 NFL MVP? Joe Nicely looks at the odds for the five candidates who are the most likely to capture the 2023 MVP award.
As we head into Week 16 of the NFL season, the MVP race is heating up. Multiple players have put themselves in the conversation with their outstanding play in 2023 and the weeks ahead will be crucial in deciding a winner.
The voting for each NFL award, including MVP, is done before the playoffs start with the winners being announced the Thursday before the Super Bowl. We'll dive into five NFL players who will try to make their best case as the most valuable player in the league over the next three weeks of the regular season.
In our NFL MVP Power Rankings, we'll list this year's top five MVP candidates and discuss why each player deserves consideration for the NFL's highest individual award. Each player will be listed with their current DraftKings sportsbook odds to win MVP. Odds below current as of 12/21/23.
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Brock Purdy - QB, San Francisco 49ers (Current MVP Odds: -200)
The former Mr. Irrelevant has been anything but this season. Purdy has led the high-powered Niners to six straight wins while leading the NFL in passer rating, yards per attempt, and TD passes. He's been the definition of an unselfish team leader since taking the reigns for the Niners, and even said his teammate, Christian McCaffrey, should win the MVP award.
Brock Purdy says he believes Christian McCaffrey should be MVP 👀pic.twitter.com/l8UaUuFYBg
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 18, 2023
While the formerly obscure second-year QB lacks the standalone star power of the other leading MVP contenders, it's tough to argue with success. Purdy's MVP chances are likely directly tied to San Francisco's performance as a team down the stretch and a huge matchup with the Baltimore Ravens looms on Christmas night.
Lamar Jackson - QB, Baltimore Ravens (Current MVP Odds: +450)
Did we mention that the Ravens play the Niners on Christmas? It's a game that could well decide the 2023 NFL MVP race, as Lamar Jackson has the potential to overcome San Francisco's candidates and become the MVP front-runner with a big performance against the 49ers in Week 16.
Lamar Jackson should be the MVP pic.twitter.com/TfyzyRy6zw
— Marty Mush (@martymush) December 18, 2023
Jackson has an MVP pedigree -- he won the award in 2019 -- and it's fair to say that the 2023 version is a superior quarterback in almost every way. He's adapted flawlessly to a new offensive system this season while retaining his trademark playmaking ability as a runner. Jackson leads all NFL QBs in rushing yards (741) and has also thrown for 3,105 yards and 17 TDs.
Dak Prescott - QB, Dallas Cowboys (Current MVP Odds: +700)
Life comes at you fast. Prescott entered Week 15 riding a five-game win streak and as the odds-on MVP favorite. However, a blowout loss to the Bills in Buffalo sent the Cowboys QB's MVP odds tumbling. Prescott now stands third on the odds board at +700.
Dak Prescott has officially lost the NFL MVP award.
It’s not my opinion, history says it’s a fact 👇🏾pic.twitter.com/R5eLZGMKcf
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) December 18, 2023
It's tough to negate all of Prescott's 2023 positives with one ugly loss, but the lingering question marks surrounding his ability to win big games -- especially on the road -- are the sort that comes with being an MVP candidate. While it might feel as though his MVP chances went down the drain in Buffalo last week, he'll have a chance to answer those criticisms over the next two weeks thanks to high-profile matchups against the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions.
Christian McCaffrey - RB, San Francisco (Current MVP Odds: +1000)
The fact that San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey is even in the MVP conversation speaks volumes about how phenomenal he's been this season. The MVP is notoriously a "quarterback award" with only nine of the MVP awards since 1990 going to non-quarterbacks. McCaffrey is attempting to be the first non-QB to take home the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012.
Tom Brady says Christian McCaffrey is his pick for NFL MVP https://t.co/WpvM2J5w5E
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) December 20, 2023
It isn't out of the realm of possibility, as CMC's dual-threat ability and nose for the end zone could catch the imagination of MVP voters. Heading into Week 16, McCaffrey is the only running back in the NFL who's already rushed for over 1,000 yards (1,292), as well as the only running back who has over 500 receiving yards (509). He also leads all non-QBs in total TDs (20). Facing a tough matchup against the Ravens on Christmas, CMC's candidacy could remain on track with a big performance.
Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills (Current MVP Odds: +1200)
We round out the current top-five MVP favorite with Bills QB Josh Allen, a player who's had his fair share of criticism this year, but who has fought his way back into the MVP conversation thanks to Buffalo's late-season surge. After a disappointing start to 2023 that led to the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, the Bills have now won three of four and have posted impressive back-to-back wins over Kansas City and Dallas.
Josh Allen leads NFL QBs in total yards and total touchdowns in a season where his OC was fired.
He’s left the field with a 4th quarter lead in 11 out of 14 games.
He set an NFL record for 1 passing and 1 rushing TD games in a season (10 and counting).
Isn’t the MVP favorite? pic.twitter.com/FIUnisTjum
— Pete Nana (@pete_nana) December 19, 2023
It's the type of storybook run that MVP voters love and it's not difficult to envision Allen's MVP campaign continuing to gain steam if Buffalo continues to win. He's accounted for a league-leading 37 total TDs this season and must continue to rack up stats -- and wins -- if he's to hang around as a serious contender for the prestigious award.
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