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Joshua Costello looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the season, written in Week 22. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
Welcome RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball breakout hitters article for Week 22. As always, we are here to bring you a few MLB hitters whose advanced metrics are popping out.
My name is Joshua Costello, and I will be giving you 3-4 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time to time well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year.
For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first, and then we'll get into the four names we're picking for this week.
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2023 Breakout Picks Tracker
Let's get to the picks for Week 22!
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle displayed the ability to be a prolific power hitter in 2021 when he hit 33 home runs in 144 games. Mountcastle likely will not reach that mark again due to time missed with injury, but he has improved in different ways.
In 2021, the slugger slashed .255/.309/.487 with 33 home runs, 77 runs, and 89 RBI. That level of production came with the tradeoff of a 27.5% strikeout rate and a 7% walk rate, contributing to a wOBA of .335. In 2022, Mountcastle's production took a step back regarding slash line and counting stats, but his strikeout rate improved by 2.2%. In 2023, the production has improved, leading to a .272/.320/.476 slash line with a 24% strikeout rate and an even better wOBA than his 2021 season.
Mountcastle may not be reaching the same heights in counting stats, but he has his highest average exit velocity, xSLG, and HardHit% this season. Mountcastle has been unlucky with home runs this season, with 17 actual home runs to 18.1 expected home runs. The Orioles home ballpark could be more home run friendly for right-handed hitters. Despite all this, Mountcastle is having arguably his best season and is among the leaders in OPS against left-handed pitching this season.
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson has only been in the league for less than two years, but he has already made significant improvements year over year. The number one overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft spent less than two years in the minor leagues before making his major league debut, and he has yet to look back since.
In his rookie season, Torkelson played 110 games, slashing .203/.285/.319 with eight home runs, 38 runs, and 28 RBI. These numbers were a drop off from the production level he had achieved at every step in the minor leagues. Although Torkelson's production fell, there were positives in his first season. The young first baseman had a .203 batting average but an expected batting average of .226, and his average exit velocity of 90.5 mph would rank 84th in the league this year.
In 2023, Torkelson has stepped up in nearly every category, and his Statcast data shows clear improvement. The 23-year-old has improved his average exit velocity by nearly two mph; his average exit velocity is in the 93rd percentile. The slugger has also nearly doubled his barrel rate and increased his HardHit% by over 10%. All these improvements have contributed to a .237 BA with a .265 xBA. If Torkelson continues improving at this rate, he may be one of the best hitters in the league shortly.
Michael Massey, Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals second baseman Michael Massey was among the best Royals prospects in the minor leagues in terms of making contact. Massey routinely had batting averages over .270 and hit .325 in his 2022 Triple-A season. The young second baseman played his way into a promotion to the majors in 2022 and proved he could be a serviceable hitter at the next level.
In 2023, Massey's slash line and counting stats do not display improvement from his 2022, but some statistics tell a different story. Massey has improved in several significant categories, with one of the most obvious places to look being his plate discipline. The young hitter had a 23.7% strikeout rate to a 4.6% walk rate in 2022. This season, the Royals' second baseman has improved his plate discipline to a 21.9% strikeout rate and a 5.6% walk rate.
Massey has also improved his average exit velocity, max exit velocity, sweet spot%, xBA, and HardHit%. The Royals' second baseman has one of the most significant discrepancies between his actual and expected batting average among qualified hitters with at least 50 batted ball events. Massey's batting average is .226, but his expected batting average is .262. If Massey can maintain his plate discipline and quality of contact, a turnaround may be in store for the remainder of this season.
James McCann, Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles catcher James McCann has been in the league since 2014 and has shown the ability to be an above-average hitter from the catcher position throughout his major league career. McCann peaked his value in his 2019 season with the Chicago White Sox, during which he slashed .273/.328/.460 with 18 home runs. McCann also produced in 2020 with the White Sox but had his season cut short by injury before moving to the New York Mets.
The veteran catcher saw a sharp decline in production, clearly represented by the significant drop in batting average from 2020 to 2022. McCann went from batting .273 in 2020 to .232 in 2021 and finally .195 in 2022. It seemed like McCann may have been playing his last season of baseball. Catchers displaying this sharp decline after their age 30 season do not typically turn it around, but McCann did.
The 33-year-old has played 52 games this season, but his Statcast numbers are comparable to his peak 2019 season. In 2019, McCann had an average exit velocity of 90.2 mph, a max exit velocity of 112 mph, an xBA of .257, and a HardHit% of 44.2%. In 2023, McCann has an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph, a max exit velocity of 112.1 mph, an xBA of .273, and a HardHit% of 47%. In his last month of games, the veteran catcher has hit over .300 and should continue to improve his season-long stats.
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