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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/14/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, August 14, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 55-41-3 (+2.61 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TEX -174
LAA: Patrick Sandoval | TEX: Max Scherzer
I'll start things out in Texas where the Angels will come into town to take on the Rangers for an early-week series.
The Angels will send Patrick Sandoval (6-8, 3.86 ERA) to the mound. Sandoval has had a relatively solid year but is due for some regression. He is bringing in a 4.35 xERA and 4.36 xFIP, according to Fangraphs. He's pitched well against the Rangers recently, allowing just three runs in 10.2 innings against them in 2022. It'll be the first time taking the ball against Texas this season, and he projects to a 4.45 SIERA. This is a new Rangers ballclub, and they project to a .355 wOBA in this one.
The Rangers will send relatively newly-acquired Max Scherzer (11-4, 3.88 ERA) to the mound today. After allowing three runs in the first inning of his Rangers debut, Scherzer has thrown 12 innings of one-run baseball and looks to be coming into form as the postseason creeps up. He projects to a 3.68 SIERA today against an Angels lineup that is fading out of contention, projecting to just a .321 wOBA.
The Rangers have the bullpen advantage here as well, so we'll be looking at a full-game line. We can get them on the run line at +120 on DraftKings, providing some solid value.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+120), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1.2 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Rockies
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAD -390
ARI: Merrill Kelly | COL: Chase Flexen
I'll head out to Coors Field for the second play this Monday evening, as Corbin Carroll and the Diamondbacks head into town to take on the Rockies.
It'll be Merrill Kelly (9-5, 3.05 ERA) likely taking the ball for the Snakes in this one. Kelly is fresh off a fantastic outing where he held the Dodgers scoreless across six innings of work. Going to Coors is never an easy task, but what does favor Kelly in this matchup is his 45.63% ground ball rate. He projects to a 4.08 SIERA against a Rockies lineup that I'm sure is happy to be back at home, but projects to just a .287 wOBA in this one.
The Arizona offense will go to work against Chris Flexen (1-5, 7.92 ERA). Flexen has allowed 19 runs across his last five starts (23.2 innings pitched) and projects a slate-low 31.93% ground ball rate. That's a big sign of trouble in Coors in particular, and even more so when paired with his projected 5.42 SIERA. He'll take on a Diamondbacks offense that isn't as hot as it was a month ago and comes into this one with a projected .312 wOBA.
I think my model is under-projecting the Diamondbacks quite a bit here. Perhaps it's because of their eight-game losing streak that ended on Saturday, but I still love them in this spot. We'll take a similar game parlay as we did with the Dodgers on Sunday afternoon, as soon as the line pops up on DraftKings.
Pick: Game Parlay: Diamondbacks F5 ML/Diamondbacks ML (), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.63 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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