RADIO
Writing about sleepers and positive outcomes is lovely, but it can't all be sunshine, rainbows, and the hype that was promised. All those picks are squandered if you crush yourself with overvalued players in the early rounds.
We'll be looking at each position, identifying who I think will underperform their draft-day cost and fail to deliver on their current ADP.
All ADP data used for this article is for half-PPR formats from FantasyPros aggregate ADP as of 09/03/2023.
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Overvalued Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (LAC), QB6
Justin Herbert battled through injuries to complete a career-best 68.2% of passes for 4,739 yards last year, but red-zone struggles dragged his production down. After throwing for 31 touchdowns in 15 games as a rookie and another 38 in ‘21, he only connected on 25 scores in ‘22. Don’t blame volume, as Herbert’s 98 red-zone pass attempts were third-best in the league.
We can expect a rebound in ‘23, but to what end? He will need to be hyperefficient with passing TDs to balance out his limited scrambling. I want to believe the health holds for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but both missed time in ‘22.
Quentin Johnston is exciting, though he’s still a rookie. Austin Ekeler is a double-edged sword as he’s an incredible receiver but also a strong runner by the goal line. I still love Gerald Everett as a cheap avenue to LAC's upside, but in general, the ceiling hinted at by Herbert's rookie campaign has anchored his draft cost.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX), QB8
Many are projecting a leap for Jacksonville’s offense with the addition of Calvin Ridley alongside another year of experience for their young core. T-Law is at the heart of that after finishing as the QB8 in 2022 (Weeks 1-17). That aligns with his ADP, but linear ranks don’t tell the entire story.
In standard QB scoring, Lawrence was indeed eighth at 293.4 points. But the QB6-QB12 band was separated by fewer than 30 points. Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, and Kirk Cousins were all between 290-300 points with Lawrence. Their ADPs are QB15, QB14, and QB13, respectively. Are we that confident in a big step forward?
Ridley’s playmaking abilities at 100% are dynamic and will need to increase the four air yards per pass attempt that we saw from Lawrence in 2022. That mark ranked 20th out of quarterbacks who played at least eight games last season, and it suppressed Lawrence’s ceiling. His current draft slot is baking in many of the presumed improvements considering how closely bunched this tier was at the end of 2022. Keep that in mind!
Some Trevor Lawrence data - 4th best in sack % (not being sacked), 21st in YPA, 4th fastest time to throw (2.59 sec), and 27th average intended air yards
TLDR; Lawrence gets rid of ball incredibly quick and hands in pocket, so to get pressure, has to come from interior. 3 sacks pic.twitter.com/mqSQZ9UPQZ
— Nate Christensen (@natech32) January 17, 2023
Overvalued Running Backs
*I don’t think ADP has had a proper chance to react to Jonathan Taylor’s status, but many are still drafting him in the first 4-5 rounds. Not only is his relationship with the team (well, Jim Irsay) in peril but his trip to the PUP List is not guaranteed to end after four weeks. Mix in Anthony Richardson’s learning curve and we’ve got a tenuous situation!
Najee Harris (PIT), RB11
Najee Harris looked like he was running through mud in the first half of the 2022 season but blames that on the Lisfranc sprain. I’m willing to accept that, but it’s difficult to assess his improvements in the second half as the entire Steelers offense made a shift as Kenny Pickett took the keys.
Even if we assume the better version of Harris we saw on the back nine is who we get for all of 2023, we certainly can’t ignore Jaylen Warren’s “best version” asserting itself. How much of a timeshare are you willing to cede at this draft position?
Warren was a top-24 RB in two of the final four weeks, while Harris checked that box in all four games. Perhaps you feel this is an indictment of Pittsburgh’s passing potential in ‘23, rather than presenting an either/or RB scenario.
But word is that Pickett should have more chances to play through his arm rather than being a rookie who took the reins midseason, leaning on the running game and defense in low-scoring affairs. It may come to that, as PIT won all four of said Week 15-18 games with that approach!
Consider how Harris averaged 3.88 yards per carry with nine catches in that window. Warren averaged nearly five (4.94 YPC) with eight receptions of his own. Some of this speaks to the nature of running in more obvious sets, but that’s a huge output gap on the ground with a near split in passing looks. Which side of this do you fall on?
Najee Harris also feels like this year’s CEH.
First-round draft capital can carry you to volume through two inefficient seasons, but what about a third if you have a talented backup? https://t.co/RVtnVPr6FD
— Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) June 23, 2023
Overvalued Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp (LAR), WR4
Cooper Kupp’s high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 10 ended his 2022 season, as the superstar required the tightrope procedure to repair it. Will he come out with the same quickness as before the injury?
Matthew Stafford is still there and there’s little competition in the WR room. Kupp had 11.6 targets and over 100 yards per game when healthy last year, but you’re not just banking on Kupp staying healthy.
Stafford is entering his age-35 campaign and now has concussions and an elbow issue on the medical ledger next to the back woes from earlier on. Kupp’s outlook takes a massive hit if Stetson Bennett or Brett Rypien are taking snaps at any point. He's slid in a few drafts due to this groin injury but often remains in the first five off of the board.
**Update: Okay, I didn't expect the early hamstring injury to "pay off" this stance so quickly, but soft-tissue injuries can crop up at any point, let alone with significant time missed. He's seeing an out-of-town body specialist and the red flags are mounting. Let someone else take him, even if you're tempted at the 1/2 turn. The ADP/X-rank in the draft room is going to be a siren song!
DK Metcalf (SEA, WR15)
DK Metcalf is a gifted athlete and I love to watch him play, but Tyler Lockett outscored him in ‘22 and Seattle drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba to muddy the target ladder. Geno Smith impressed the world last year and is now surrounded by perhaps the best WR trio in the NFL. Head coach Pete Carroll still loves to pound the rock and has Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III to keep that avenue rolling.
The 25-year-old WR boasts an elite ceiling but was the WR18 in half-PPR and WR16 in PPR. Lockett was the WR13 in both formats. However, Metcalf costs an early third-round pick at WR15 while Lockett is down at WR28, slipping into the sixth round at times. Talk about a value disparity. This isn’t a skill issue, nor is it a warning about Metcalf’s performance in ‘23. It is a market-driven mispricing and that’s all.
FPPG:
2020
Tyler Lockett - 16.1
DK Metcalf - 172021
Tyler Lockett - 15.1
DK Metcalf - 14.42022
Tyler Lockett - 14.8
DK Metcalf - 13.3Current Underdog ADP:
DK Metcalf: WR15
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: WR32
Tyler Lockett: WR33— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) August 1, 2023
Overvalued Tight Ends
George Kittle (SF), TE4
In a tier vacuum, I’m having a tough time paying up for George Kittle ahead of Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, and the like. I remind you that being labeled as overvalued does not mean the player is bad. The overall TE market is reasonable, so I'll expand more here on my only clear avoid due to his high cost.
The full-strength 49ers simply haven’t shown a willingness to lean on Kittle where they can thrive without touchdowns. This trend spread on social media but the ADP didn’t suddenly drop, so clearly we have to keep discussing this.
Target shares in the six games Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk were on the field together with Purdy:
Deebo 25.5%
CMC 21.6%
Aiyuk 16.1%
Kittle 11.5% https://t.co/Ofue8U9QKE— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) July 25, 2023
We won’t blindly give Kittle a horrid target share for ‘23 but why should we go over 20%? I have him at 18% in my projections, with a healthy 68-800-6 line that checks in as the TE6. That’s good! But his range of outcomes is extremely close to Waller, Goedert, Kyle Pitts, and Evan Engram. Even Pat Freiermuth had an 18% target share in ‘22. It gets close beyond the top dogs.
If you want to argue that Kittle is more talented than others going around him, that’s fine. He had a top-five Yards per Route Run mark of 1.97 last year. But Dallas Goedert can be found in third place (2.1) in between Travis Kelce (2.39) and Mark Andrews (2.06). His three touchdowns were dwarfed by Kittle’s 11. However, TDs are not a sticky variable to chase and no one doubts Philly’s propensity to score.
We’ll see if Brock Purdy takes a more aggressive approach in 2023 but the Niners shouldn’t need him to. Overall, the 49ers sport some clear team trends that have worked for them in the past that we’d be surprised to see a deviation from.
Their average depth of target as a team was 6.8, which was tied for the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. Their overall plays-per-minute tempo was 1.67, the sixth-lowest rate in ‘22. San Fran’s 46% rushing rate was fourth. You get the picture. It isn’t a fast-paced, voluminous attack that pushes downfield. It can work, obviously, but Kittle needs those TDs. I’m not a fan of buying him with that in mind.
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