RADIO
There was a mass exodus of chalky weeklong golfers at the end of R2, with Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Tom Kim and Austin Eckroat all missing the cut close to and above 20% ownership. The 6/6 rate in the Fantasy Golf World Championship was ... 1%. The very best in the business managed to get thrown off by the bizarre nature of this event. Rickie Fowler (T3) is one of the few remaining big names alongside Collin Morikawa (T5). Max Homa and Sungjae Im all sit a half-dozen shots back of the co-leaders, a pair of Taylors (Moore & Pendrith).
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership
Going into Round 3, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Strategy
There looks to be some stronger gusts tomorrow afternoon compared to the AM, potentially providing easier scoring conditions in the morning as those winds and temperatures climbing in the afternoon, baking out the course that has been rather receptive so far.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA TOUR SHOWDOWN $4K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Rickie and Collin are going to be really popular, particularly Rickie, so we are simply going to hope that the guys we go heavy on in the $9k range, can play well enough and give us enough salary relief to upgrade our cheaper options.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Sungjae Im is where we are going to start our player pool as Sungjae grades out as my 2nd best option on the slate. His R3 scoring average is very appealing as well as his birdie percentage. He also grades out really well for spike putting.
Max Homa and Keegan Bradley are going to be our other two plays in the $9k range as alongside Sungjae.
$8,000+
Favorite play: Chris Kirk has some really impressive R3 scores under his belt and if he can lean on a spike putting round tomorrow, he is playing well enough to go back to at this price point and form. He is not the worst birdie maker in this price range either.
Sepp Straka and Alex Smalley will both also accompany lineups alongside Kirk, as they will be some high-octane options for this price range.
$7,000+
Favorite play: Christiaan Bezuidenhout gets a 7AM tee time and has shown that he enjoys himself a Saturday round of golf, averaging roughly a stroke better in R3 than in any of the other 3. He is also one of the leading spike putters in the field and should have some really smooth greens to roll the rock around at the front of the field. We know his approach play has also been an absurdly improved area of his game recently and all we are looking for is one sensational round where they all sync up.
J.J. Spaun, Doug Ghim and Sam Stevens will round out the middle of the $7k range. Chez Reavie, Carson Young, Sam Bennett, Vincent Norrman, Nate Lashley and Ryan Plamer are the abundance of $7k golfers we are going to rotate into my 20 GPP lineups.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Kyle Westmoreland is $6,100 and has a stellar R3 scoring average for somebody $100 from min price. He has shown that he gets streaky when he makes the weekend, as he is obviously playing better golf. Very affordable and hopefully a sneaky option who can have another great Saturday, despite not playing in that many PGA weekends this year.
Ryan Gerrard, Kevin Tway and Sam Ryder will also be added to my 20 odd lineups tonight.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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