Model Kombat - The U.S. Open (2023) by Spencer Aguiar & Byron Lindeque

Spencer and Byron compare notes (and models) to figure out what players possess the largest disparities for them during this week's U.S. Open.

At RotoBaller, we are constantly searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we proudly announce our new 'Model Kombat' article, a piece that will compare some of the differences inside the projections on the site from Spencer Aguiar and Byron Lindeque.

If you would like a more in-depth answer for all players inside this week's field, we hope you consider signing up for our PGA Platinum VIP Package. There, you will find all of our amazing content for the week, including Byron's 'Stat Buffet' and Spencer's 'Rankings Wizard Model.' 

Those are two tools that we are incredibly excited to share with all golf enthusiasts, and the ability to create your own model from their information is something that we believe can generate an edge for anyone trying to dive deeper into these boards. Once again, thank you for considering our product, and we hope you enjoy the article below!

Last Five Winners Of The U.S. Open

Expected Cut-Line

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats From Byron

Key Stats From Spencer

• 55% Stats/30% Weighted Form, 15% Course History
• Weighted SG: Total (35%)
• SG: Total Firm Courses (10%)
• SG: Total Hard Courses (10%)
• SG: Total Fast Courses (10%)
• SG: Total Thick Rough (7.5%)
• Weighted Scoring (20%)
• Weighted Scrambling (7.5%)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

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Players Spencer Is Higher On This Week

Round 1...Fight

Rory McIlroy ($9,900)

Spencer - I know we are talking about a nearly 16 percent-owned Rory McIlroy that is still $9,900, but the overreaction in the space has gotten carried away for one of the best golfers of his generation. McIlroy has quietly produced three consecutive top-10 finishes since the PGA Championship, and the high-end profile does possess legitimate win equity at his reduced price tag. Even if he doesn't end up being the winner of the contest, I am going to go out on a limb and say he lands in the winning 'Milly Maker' build.

Byron - If Rory continues to make bogey's at a rate that sees him ranking 74th in that department, we could see him potentially struggle to make the cut if things don't go his way early on. His length off the tee will come in handy but he has some of the worst accuracy off the tee in the field, meaning he will need to club down a lot if he wants to avoid that thick Bermuda rough. His driver and his putter have been the reason for his trio of top-10s recently, with his iron play losing strokes in 3 of his last 5 events. At a venue like this, misguided approach shots are going to put way too much pressure on his short game, particularly if he is coming from the thick rough.

Michael Kim ($6,900)

Spencer - It differs from Stephan Jaeger at the PGA Championship because Jaeger had massive upside intangibles in my model, but the late addition to the field made Michael Kim a forgotten commodity for the week. Kim's data landed him 43rd overall, highlighted by a Cal Berkley background that has helped him find success on firm courses around the world.

Byron - Michael Kim is a victim of two very disparaging sets of data in the 2022/2023 season. He started off the season with a slew of woeful missed cuts, but since the Farmers Insurance Open he has more top-10s (3) than missed cuts (2) in that stretch of 13 events. His model ranking may need some manual adjusting as it is hard to argue with the turnaround in his game this calendar year. However, one thing that I do believe is working against him this week is the fact that this is his first major since 2019 and his last three starts in the PGA and Augusta were missed cuts.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600)

Spencer - If you trust where Hideki Matsuyama is health-wise with his neck, there is a lot to like about his floor at a U.S. Open. We see that with six consecutive top-26 finishes at this event, and the current form is trending in a very similar light after his onslaught of top 31 results. I believe Augusta National is a reasonable comp for Los Angeles Country Club, so why not consider a former Masters winner?

Byron - The reason Hideki drops from 8th in Spencer's to 18th in my model, is because when he tries to pack a punch with his putter, 1 in 3 times he slips on a banana peel and loses over 5 strokes putting. For somebody who has been picking up ownership as the week has unfolded, I am not sure I trust him to avoid a meltdown on some very tricky Bentgrass greens that he ranks 146th in stroke gained putting this week. The putter is the reason his onslaught of top-31 results have not been top-10 or top-5 more conistently.

Joaquin Niemann ($7,700)

Spencer - We might be having a different conversation about Joaquin Niemann had he not left for LIV. Everyone seems to forget that this is a 24-year-old that was flashing as a top-10 caliber player, especially when given a fast test. I would be lying if I said I completely trusted his floor output projection, but the upside is well worth a shot for a fringe top 15-20 upside option.

Byron - In Nieman's two PGA Tour starts (the Masters and PGA Championship), he has lost an average of -0.75 on approach per round. He has not finished better than 9th in any PGA or LIV event this year and despite his excellence off the tee, Nieman is a one kick pony who needs to get lucky with the putter if he were to have any success around this venue.

Max Homa ($9,400)

Spencer -Sure, the California narrative and Los Angeles Country Club history got massively overblown when he moved to sub-20/1 in the betting market over a month ago. However, at what point is there actually contrarian value on a golfer that has done nothing but take a complete 180 in the eyes of the public leading up to the week? Homa ranked first in my model for projected strokes gained total when running my data for a course-specific answer, and the perception around his overpriced tag is starting to turn him into a savvy option to consider for leverage.

Byron - With about 10% of my model weighting strokes gained in majors, Homa ranks 91st since 2017. Yes, he has made the cut in 5 of his last 6 majors, but outside of his T13 at Southern Hills his weekend performances can only be described as "the part of any sport related movie that sees the hero get beat up really bad before mounting a major comeback". The only difference is that Homa's movie ends at "...gets really beat up" as there has been very little fight from the uber-talented Californian on major weekends. Maybe that comeback takes place in his home state in LA, and at 12% ownership, he does provide some leverage, but until he proves he doesn't have a major block, we will steer clear of one of my favorite golfers on tour.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Players Byron Is Higher On This Week

Round 2...Fight

Brooks Koepka ($10,800)

Byron - The reasoning here is simple. Scottie Scheffler leads the field in major strokes gained, with Brooks coming in second. A T2 at Augusta and a convincing victory at the PGA Championship now sees Brooks priced as the third-most expensive golfer in the field and with that comes a major ownership discount. We are talking 10% less ownership than Scheffler, who Brooks has beat in his last two starts. Now, I manually adjusted Brooks to be the 2nd best golfer in my model, as his lack of stats is a LIVing disaster along with a few other guys in the field, but we must adapt mid fight and recruit the fighter that landed knock out blows to my DFS hopes in the last two majors. "If you can't beat em, join em".

Spencer - I am a smart enough person to stop openly picking a fight against the biggest/baddest guy at the bar. Yes, my model is lower on Brooks Koepka than Byron's. In fact, it will be lower on him almost every week because I can't figure out how to openly run a 'clutch' statistic, but I do get the intrigue. I prefer pivoting to Rory McIlroy, which makes sense why we are on opposite ends of the spectrum here, but Koepka isn't some natural fade candidate.

Matt Kuchar ($6,900)

Byron - With scores expected to settle around level par or so to make the cut this week, may I introduce to you the 44 year old Matt Kuchar who leads the field in counter strikes. Just when the course thinks it has landed a brutal missed GIR hook to the liver, the best around the green player in the field absorbs the blow and fires back with a straight jab to the nostrils. His defense is solid as he ranks 7th in bogey avoidance and despite his lack of power, his par 5 punch packs the 7th-most potency in this field. Did we mention he has the 33rd best major strokes gained total and also sits inside the top-40 in recent form? He is also $6k and projected to be only 3% owned.

Spencer - KUCHHHHHHHHHHHH. TBH, I am indifferent. It is hard when we each have to come up with five names that we agree upon on both sides of the aisle. It is not to say that I feel aroused in playing him at $6,900, but how horrible can these low-owned darts be in the $6,000 range? That said, I am not going to find myself running to put Kuchar into builds, so give me Michael Kim, Adam Schenk, Kurt Kitayama or Andrew Putnam when directly comparing.

Taylor Moore ($7,400)

Byron - After getting caught on camera turning his driver into a $699 boomerang on one of the tee boxes at the PGA Championship, Taylor Moore WD'd from the memorial after a Friday implosion at the Charles Schwab that saw his putter miss every putt and him miss the cut. Battered and bruised our guy limped back to the gym to work on his game and reset his mental state, which was Tyrrell Hatton esque. Prior to losing strokes in back-to-back events, Mr. Miyagi had Moore waxed since the Farmers insurance, missing only one cut on the number in 11 starts, rattling off 5 top 20s that included a win at the Valspar. His ball striking has been impeccable this year and his putter can open a can of whoop-a$$ quite regularly when he gets comfy on the greens. He is 2% owned at $7,400 and has made 2 cuts in his 2 career major appearances. Sign me up, Daniel son!

Spencer - After capturing his first title on the PGA Tour a few months ago, it appears that Taylor Moore has recently regressed. Back-to-back finishes outside the top-72 will be alarming numbers for a price tag that I do not find cheap at $7,400, and there aren't too many course comps we can see where he has excelled at a challenging track.

Tom Hoge ($7,200)

Byron - Tom Hoge is that character or UFC fighter that either gets knocked out early in round one, or on the odd occasion just unleashes combinations of approach strikes that leave the competition dazed and confused. Hoge leads the field in knockout power, ranking 1st in weighted good shot %, meaning he gains +0.5 strokes on a single approach shot more than anybody else in the field. His accuracy over distance off the tee should be punished less at this course and his sloppy short game is typically a little more buttoned up in majors gaining the 28th most strokes around the green in his 34 major rounds.

Spencer - If you want to throw a dart, Tom Hoge's ownership is fun at one percent. I'd prefer to do my pivoting with Keith Mitchell or Seamus Power because Hoge's strokes gained total return in my sheet lands 80th overall, but it is hard to pound the table against someone that ranks number one in weighted proximity. It is one of those spots where I would expect a missed cut, with the occasional sprinkle of excellence.

Collin Morikawa ($9,300)

Byron - Collin Morikawa is a robot who throws an accurate strike on repeat with any iron in the bag. He has gained the 2nd most strokes on approach in this field this year and he goes from punching himself in the face in the short game department, to actually dodging greenside grappling attempts in majors, gaining +0.25 strokes both around the green and putting in his 44 major rounds of golf. One of the best iron players in the world who has a T5, T10 and T26 in his last 3 major appearances seems like somebody I want to roster at 12% and $9,300.

Spencer - What would a major championship be if I didn't find myself against Koepka and Morikawa in some capacity? I feel more confident taking on Morikawa than I did Koepka in this situation because of his recent back spasms at the Memorial, and I will have zero percent ownership in all game types because of his projected scrambling at Los Angeles Country Club. Koepka can be viewed as a winner that might actually win. Morikawa feels more like a golfer that is still overpriced because of past success at majors.

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