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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on May 3, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With matinee baseball spread throughout the day, Wednesday's main slate is whittled down to just eight games. Today's matchups feature some interesting considerations for roster construction. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/3/2023 and the slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Shohei Ohtani, LAA vs. STL ($11,400 DK, $11,100 FD)
The most premium arm of the slate, Ohtani is in a tier of his own today. He enters play with a 1.85 ERA and 35.1% strikeout rate across six starts with 34 innings pitched this season. Excluding an uncharacteristic five-run inning surrendered to Oakland last time out, Ohtani has not allowed more than one earned run in any of his other appearances. That stretch includes elite metrics, such as a .149 xBA, .238 xSLG, 84.3 mph average exit velocity, and a 27.4% hard-hit rate.
Ohtani will take on a supposedly intimidating Cardinals lineup. St. Louis sits alone at last place in the NL Central, and their 4.1 runs per game is a big reason why. Despite big names like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, the Cardinals carry a middling .733 OPS and .146 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They don't strike out at an exceptional rate, but the results are underwhelming. A matchup with Ohtani is not the day I expect this offense to turn it around.
The steep asking price is a tough pill to swallow, but Ohtani is undoubtedly the strongest pitching play on this slate.
Marcus Stroman, CHC vs. WSH ($9,100 DK, $10,500 FD)
Not the most exciting play, but I really appreciate Stroman's stability. He's pitched at least six innings and surrendered two earned runs or fewer in five of his six appearances this season. The only exception was a five-run, five-inning outing against the Dodgers on April 23.
The Nationals are not the Dodgers. Washington ranks last in the majors with a .091 ISO against right-handed pitchers, including a .626 OPS and 73 wRC+. There's not a ton of strikeout upside for Stroman, but there's also not a ton of scoring upside for the Nationals.
Clarifying Stroman's lack of strikeout potential, he does sport an above-average 23.7% strikeout rate in 2023. If he keeps up this pace, it will be a career-high mark for him. Nonetheless, limiting significant contact has always been Stroman's area of expertise. He carries an elite 2.2% barrel rate alongside a .257 wOBA, 59.8% groundball rate, and 88.1 mph average exit velocity.
Outside of his tough April 23 matchup with the Dodgers, Stroman has only surrendered one extra-base hit in his five other starts combined -- a double.
Stroman isn't likely to rack up double-digit strikeouts, but he'll pitch deep into games with minimal damage accrued in most cases. A matchup against this awful Nationals lineup feels like a good time to activate Stroman.
Also consider: Logan Gilbert, Kyle Gibson, Dylan Cease
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jose Ramirez – 3B, CLE vs. Clarke Schmidt ($5,600 DK, $3,600 FD)
Ramirez does his damage almost exclusively against right-handed pitchers these days, posting a .563 slugging percentage, .211 ISO, and 173 wRC+ against them in 2023. He matches up exceptionally well with Clarke Schmidt, whom left-handed hitters are slugging a staggering .811 against with five home runs and seven doubles this season. Additionally, factoring in the right field power alley at Yankee Stadium, it altogether makes too much sense to roster Ramirez today.
Ryan Mountcastle – 1B, BAL vs. Zack Greinke ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD)
There's been a lot of recent discourse regarding Mountcastle's incoming positive regression. He carries elite advanced metrics, including a .599 xSLG, 14.7% barrel rate, .308 xBA, .389 xwOBA, 93 mph average exit velocity, and 47.4% hard-hit rate. However, the results have not caught up to the performance level. Yesterday, Mountcastle finally got some payoff, smacking two home runs and a double. We should expect more of this going forward.
On the flip side, Zack Greinke is a pitcher to attack in fantasy at this stage of his career. He brings an atrocious 6.02 xERA, .311 xBA, .527 xSLG, 91.2 mph average exit velocity, .370 xwOBA, and 9.3% barrel rate. Those are all career-worst marks for Greinke.
Eugenio Suarez – 3B, SEA vs. JP Sears ($3,700 DK, $2,600 FD)
JP Sears has allowed seven home runs this season, all to right-handed hitters, alongside a .551 slugging percentage and .354 wOBA. Suarez is off to a sluggish start to 2023, but this is an opportunity to break out. He slugged .538 against southpaws last season, including a .269 ISO. That performance builds off a career-long trend of hitting lefties well. Fortunately, Suarez's struggles have also resulted in a notable price drop, making him much easier to slot into lineups.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Mike Trout – OF, LAA vs. Miles Mikolas ($6,300 DK, $4,200 FD)
Trout is mostly immune to splits, but for what it's worth, he's crushing right-handed pitching again this season. He carries a .623 slugging percentage, .325 ISO, and 182 wRC+ against righties in 2023. It's unnecessary to spend much time highlighting how great Trout is, but this is a particularly good spot to roster him in.
Miles Mikolas' splits also don't indicate any strong preference because he's getting hit by everyone. Mikolas sports a .521 xSLG, .385 xwOBA, .321 xBA, and 11.9% barrel rate, and he has allowed three runs or more in all but one outing in 2023. There are several Angels hitters who match up well against Mikolas, but if you can get to Trout's price, he's the best target.
Randal Grichuk – OF, COL vs. Eric Lauer ($3,900 DK, $2,700 FD)
Obviously, the jumping-off point here is that the game is at Coors Field. Further, right-handed hitters slugged 24 home runs against Eric Lauer in 2022. Righties already have five long balls against him so far this season, including a .540 slugging percentage and 46.3% fly ball percentage. Lauer has surrendered at least one home run in each outing this year, and today expects to be no different.
Coming off an injury, Grichuk is only three games deep into his 2023 campaign. Thus far, he's recorded two hits in each outing, including two doubles. It's too small a sample size to dwell on, but Grichuk sports a career .495 slugging percentage and .234 ISO against left-handed pitchers.
Eloy Jimenez – OF, CWS vs. Louie Varland ($3,100 DK, $2,800 FD)
It's been a rough year for just about anyone in a White Sox uniform. Jimenez has shown signs of life recently, recording at least one hit in five consecutive games entering today, including a home run and a four-hit performance against the Rays. Overall, his surface numbers still look ugly, but a 12.5% barrel rate and 44.6% hard-hit rate are encouraging. It feels like Jimenez's price is about as low as it's going to get.
Jimenez will square off against Louie Varland, who has struggled mightily against right-handed hitters in his brief MLB service time. Through 32 career innings pitched, Varland has surrendered a .556 slugging percentage and six home runs to righties.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Baltimore Orioles vs. Zack Greinke
Greinke's struggles are highlighted in Mountcastle's section above. He's posting career-worst metrics across the board and has allowed at least four runs in each of his last four appearances. That stretch includes three multi-home run outings. Looking beyond Greinke, Kansas City's bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA in the majors, so there's plenty of weak pitching here for Baltimore to exploit.
The Orioles are scoring 5.4 runs per game this season behind several juggernaut performers. Adley Rutschman and Jorge Mateo are excelling while Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins are picking up momentum. Anthony Santander is off to a slow start, which further illustrates the unrealized ceiling. Baltimore exploded for 11 runs against the Royals last night. This is a great spot for the Orioles to go off again.
Favorite Plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Jorge Mateo, Anthony Santander
Seattle Mariners vs. JP Sears
JP Sears is getting crushed this season. He sports a 5.32 xERA, .510 xSLG, 41.1% hard-hit rate, and 15.1% barrel rate. He struggles in particular against right-handed hitters, and the Mariners are well-equipped to take advantage. Further, the Athletics' bullpen is the worst in the majors, so run-scoring opportunities should be plentiful.
The Mariners are off to an underwhelming start offensively this season. Still, the firepower is there, and this is as great a spot as any to ignite. Outside of Julio Rodriguez, if he returns today, the rest of this lineup is very affordable. Look to Seattle for value stacking with a high upside.
Favorite Plays: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic, Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez
Also Consider: Cleveland Guardians, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels
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