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Jackson Sparks discusses WR Gabe Davis as one of the top dynasty fantasy football fallers for 2023 after a disappointing 2022 NFL season.
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis captured the imaginations of dynasty fantasy football managers when he delivered an eight-catch, 201-yard, four-touchdown performance in the AFC Divisional Round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at the end of the 2021 season.
Despite mediocre fantasy production during his first two years in the league, his combination of size and speed in the Josh Allen-led Bills' offense led him to rise in the dynasty rankings. Sure, Stefon Diggs had the No. 1 wide receiver role locked down, but in a high-volume, high-scoring passing offense, there is plenty of room for multiple players to eat. However, despite posting career-highs in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns -- his value declined as the 2023 NFL season played out.
How did Davis play in 2022, what is his current dynasty value and trade market, and what can we expect from the 24-year-old wideout in 2023? Let's dive in.
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2022 Season In Review
In Week 1's Thursday night opener against the Los Angeles Rams, Davis caught four of his five targets for 88 yards and a touchdown -- good for a WR14 finish in half-PPR leagues. He missed the Week 2 drumming of the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football but returned thereafter.
In Weeks 3 and 4, Davis hauled in just four of his nine targets for 50 yards and zero touchdowns. He finished as the WR66 and WR88 in that sample.
Then, Week 5 against Pittsburgh happened. Davis posted 171 yards and two touchdowns on just three receptions – highlighted by a 98-yard catch and run for a score. His 30.6 half-PPR points ranked No. 1 in Week 4 and for leagues that award bonuses for long grabs, it was an extra-nuclear performance.
Through five weeks, Davis ranked 12th among wideouts in fantasy points per game. In Week 6 against Kansas City, Davis totaled 74 yards and a touchdown on three receptions. However, a flurry of underwhelming outings lied ahead.
From the team's Week 7 bye to the Week 18 finale, Davis posted just one more WR1 finish and fell outside the 32 wideouts in nine of his final 10 weeks, including six finishes outside the top 40 wide receivers. His game log was littered with low-receptions games as he failed to catch more than four passes in 13 of his 15 outings. He caught three or fewer passes in 10 of those games.
Of course, he's delivered several times with just a handful of catches, but it proved to be unsustainable at the end of the season -- where fantasy managers desperately need him to thrive.
His final 2023 numbers were 48 catches on 93 targets for 836 yards and seven touchdowns. From the Week 8 point on, he was just the WR37 in total fantasy points -- after being drafted as the WR27 in the preseason. Those who selected him in Best Ball were likely happy early on, but for fantasy managers holding him in traditional fantasy leagues, he was a frustrating player to manage. All wide receivers are volatile week-to-week, but Davis was extremely hot and cold.
Gabe Davis Advanced Stats and Metrics
All in all, Davis ranked outside the top-4o receivers in targets, target share, receptions, yards per route run, and true catch rate. Even though he played some of the most snaps and ran a high number of routes, he struggled to command targets and failed to secure a high percentage of them. He's one of the most efficient players in the league when he does catch the ball, but one of the least efficient when he is targeted – making him a tough player to analyze and evaluate.
Since his target competition outside of Diggs were guys like Dawson Knox, Isaiah McKenzie, Khalil Shakir, and Cole Beasley, his overall target profile is disappointing.
Gabe Davis Dynasty Value/Market
While all dynasty leagues vary and Samuel's market value could be different from league to league, Keeptradecut.com's crowdsourced rankings are a helpful resource for getting an idea of what a player's value may be. Samuel is ranked as the WR46 in dynasty leagues. A year ago today, (April 10th) Davis was in the exact same spot. However, his ranking climbed incrementally all the way up to the WR16 spot. That said, he's seen a dramatic fall from his peak value over the last six months.
Gabe Davis Dynasty Value Chart
He was once among the top 50 most valuable players and draft picks, but now he's alongside aging veterans like Keenan Allen and Tyler Lockett, as well as unproven talents like Skyy Moore and Josh Downs.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
As things sit, Davis is likely to be a valuable and attractive Best Ball piece once again in 2023, but drafters in start 'em, sit 'em leagues will be more cautious. However, there's a real chance Buffalo adds a wide receiver in the first two rounds of the 2023 NFL draft – or tries to make a deal for DeAndre Hopkins. If either of those things happens, Davis could be in big trouble.
Davis would still have real value as a field stretcher for Buffalo, but his fantasy value would take an even bigger hit with another high-end prospect or pass-catcher on the roster. He's failed to command real volume and be a go-to target opposite Diggs when it matters most. The Bills' offense often stalls when Diggs doesn't have a nuclear day, so adding a wide receiver makes a ton of sense when the team has to battle Kansas City and Cincinnati in the playoffs.
If Davis enters the 2023 season as the team's WR2, he'll likely have a similar season as last year. If Buffalo adds real target competition, he's a mere low-end flex option with real Best Ball upside. Either way, he's worth rostering in one of the best offenses in football, but if his already slim target-earning prowess is diminished even more and his touchdown upside is limited, he'll be close to un-startable in regular fantasy formats.
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